ATL HANNA: Extratropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

BREAKING NEWS=Best Track increases the winds to 35kts.

AL, 08, 2008082812, , BEST, 0, 203N, 587W, 35, 1002, TS

[DESTRUCTION5]

Hello Hanna!!!(unofficially ofcourse)

[KWT]

Yep We've now got Hanna, hardly surprising given the structure of the system right now.

[Cryomaniac]

Yep We've now got Hanna, hardly surprising given the structure of the system right now.

Looks like it. Now we wait for the NHC.

[lbvbl]

I have a question... I'm very much an amateur with this stuff so this probably sounds dumb, but is it true that the stronger a storm gets, the easier it is to forecast the track?

[AJC3]

I have a question... I'm very much an amateur with this stuff so this probably sounds dumb, but is it true that the stronger a storm gets, the easier it is to forecast the track?

Two words: No. Mitch.

[jlauderdal]

I have a question... I'm very much an amateur with this stuff so this probably sounds dumb, but is it true that the stronger a storm gets, the easier it is to forecast the track?

easier to follow on satellite, none of this oh i see a center there or there or wait maybe its over there but the flow is the flow and sometimes it doesn't behave as the modeling and forecasts would like no matter how intense they get, we have had some real fun ones over the years.

[Aric Dunn]

NRL site has hanna

[SouthFLTropics]

I have a question... I'm very much an amateur with this stuff so this probably sounds dumb, but is it true that the stronger a storm gets, the easier it is to forecast the track?

Two words: No. Mitch.

That's about as simple as you can put it and get the needed point across...great response AJC3.

For those of you that are not familiar with Mitch please read the archives from the 1998 season. Also, a side note, a book was written about a Windjammer Ship that was lost during the storm. The book is called The Ship and The Storm. It is a very good read and if you have time you should check it out.

SFT

[tolakram]

http://markalot.org/gearth.html

[sally]

The Fantome was the Windjammer that went down in Mitch. It really hit home when it happened as we had a fantastic two weeks on her a number of years ago. She was in the West Indies then.

[tgenius]

As others have said, the fact the EURO has been on board with this coming towards FL for a week isn't very re-assuring.. if we get major model agreement, then it becomes an even bleaker forecast.

I HATE hurricanes as I'm involved in our company's BCP plan and it evokes stuff that I don't want to go through.

[alienstorm]

Westerly shear is still there, last high resolution visible shows LLC exposed in the western semicircle. Shear needs to relax seems to be moving slowly westward.

http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/satelli ... &lon=-58.7

[AJC3]

You can clearly see the exposed center to the NW of the main ball of convection now.

[cycloneye]

[Aric Dunn]

As others have said, the fact the EURO has been on board with this coming towards FL for a week isn't very re-assuring.. if we get major model agreement, then it becomes an even bleaker forecast.

I HATE hurricanes as I'm involved in our company's BCP plan and it evokes stuff that I don't want to go through.

thats the thing we have pretty good model consensus now with all models forecasting a WSW motion at the end of the forecast with a blocking ridge in place which by the way is the same one that will slow gustav's motion as well, so knowing that shows how far west the ridge is forecast to extend which would mostly likely mean at the least a very close approach to florida with watches and warnings likely as well, if that pans out.

[gatorcane]

GFS is on board with the big Bermuda High feature that would steer Hanna west. I posted the GFS 500MB model in the models thread.

The consensus seems to be increasing amongst the big global models on a west bend and big Bermuda High feature.

[JPmia]

As others have said, the fact the EURO has been on board with this coming towards FL for a week isn't very re-assuring.. if we get major model agreement, then it becomes an even bleaker forecast.

I HATE hurricanes as I'm involved in our company's BCP plan and it evokes stuff that I don't want to go through.

thats the thing we have pretty good model consensus now with all models forecasting a WSW motion at the end of the forecast with a blocking ridge in place which by the way is the same one that will slow gustav's motion as well, so knowing that shows how far west the ridge is forecast to extend which would mostly likely mean at the least a very close approach to florida with watches and warnings likely as well, if that pans out.

how many days away are we talking here?

[storms in NC]

If she keeps going like she is 8-10 days all up to her speed

[tgenius]

I think we would be looking at next weekend sometime on sat/sun based on what I've seen, but of course thats all unknown at the moment.