ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

I wanted to take a moment to let you know about a new model currently in the testing stages. It's called the S2K and it has excellent skill. Well, it's pretty good anyway. Actually, it has negative skill in every measurable way. It is generated from the implied storm positions and intensities based on the myriad of diverse viewpoints found on Storm2K. In fact, if you believe the S2K model,

1. Everyone, everywhere can now breathe a sigh of relief because clearly the storm is not going to x-location.
2. Everyone needs to watch the storm carefully, as everyone is now in the cone.
3. Everyone can be absolutely relieved because the storm is NOT coming to their area.
4. Everyone can be absolutely relieved because the storm IS coming to their area after all.
5. Oil futures can now be traded with the utmost accuracy because EVERY possible scenario is perfectly represented.

See the image below, making special note of the new "S2K" line in purple.

Cheers, and happy forecasting.



No representation is made that the image above is actually a valid forecast. In fact, this whole post was nothing more than a lighthearted attempt at humor after being completely worn out by Fay and Gustav.

PHEWW!!!! I am so happy to see that even in the S2K model that Obi Wan Kenobi has still been unable to disarm the Tampa Bay area's "Deflector shield"!!! May the FORCE be with us!!!

Thanks for that wonderful bit of humor!!

[Innotech]

landfall near Lake charles would put us in the dirty part to the east.

[Cyclenall]

I'd just like to post that The Weather Network in Canada seems to continue showing a major hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico (the 5:00 pm NHC forecast) 2-3 hours after the newest one came out. They can't even update their on air stuff. I just thought that was amusing.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This system appears to be moving west-southwest or even southwestward. I would say 230-240 degree's...Amazing what this system has done. It is going to be very very hard for this to avoid Jamaica. It might spend 12 hours over it. If it can turn even more southward there is even a chance for it to go south of it...This will increase its time over the Caribbean.

[Jagno]

landfall near Lake charles would put us in the dirty part to the east.

Innotech; I questioned his forecast prediction because it is impossible for a Lake Charles landfall unless hurricanes have learned to jump over complete parishes such as Cameron Parish. It is impossible to make landfall in Lake Charles as it does not touch the Gulf Coast. If it does, which I pray it does not, it would have to hit Cameron, Louisiana and yes, that would put you on the dirty side. However, as long as Gus remains a small tight storm it's damage path would not extend to far out.

[Innotech]

landfall near Lake charles would put us in the dirty part to the east.

Innotech; I questioned his forecast prediction because it is impossible for a Lake Charles landfall unless hurricanes have learned to jump over complete parishes such as Cameron Parish. It is impossible to make landfall in Lake Charles as it does not touch the Gulf Coast. If it does, which I pray it does not, it would have to hit Cameron, Louisiana and yes, that would put you on the dirty side. However, as long as Gus remains a small tight storm it's damage path would not extend to far out.

Im not one for caring about such trivial things as which city/parish it hits directly. Lake charles is above Cameron so it really doesnt matter WHERE around there it would hit.
this is like saying Lafayette was unaffected by Lili just because Cypermort Point, Intracoastal City, Maurice, and New Iberia are below it. It still passed through town and did alot of damage. Lake charles is just a reference point, not exactly where the storm could hit. People generally know where Lake charles is on a map because it is a decent sized population center so they reference it. dont read so much into specifics.

[Nexus]

Eclipse over:

[RL3AO]

Looks like the center is very close to Jamaica. Maybe only 50 miles off the east coast.

[kurtpage]

28/0615 UTC 18.1N 75.4W T3.0/3.0 GUSTAV -- Atlantic Ocean

[kurtpage]

Pressure at 994

[RL3AO]

Center about 42 miles east of the eastern tip of Jamaica. It only needs to move WSW to go south of the island.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Center about 42 miles east of the eastern tip of Jamaica. It only needs to move WSW to go south of the island.

This is a big suprize. If it goes south of Jamaica I would expect it will have more time over the Caribbean. We will see, but interesting.

[shah8]

Wow, what is it with me being so dang wrong all the time in the middle of the night. First Fay, now Gustav.

[kurtpage]

Center about 42 miles east of the eastern tip of Jamaica. It only needs to move WSW to go south of the island.

17.97 N 75.53 W

Is that what you are getting as well?

[RL3AO]

Last VDM was 18 54, -74 58

Movement about 210

[kurtpage]

000
URNT12 KNHC 280656
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL072008
A. 28/06:44:00Z
B. 17 deg 58 min N
075 deg 32 min W
C. 850 mb 1385 m
D. 38 kt
E. 037 deg 5 nm
F. 122 deg 041 kt
G. 039 deg 026 nm
H. 995 mb
I. 16 C/ 1506 m
J. 20 C/ 1546 m
K. 19 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345/8
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF307 0607A GUSTAV OB 06
MAX FL WIND 41 KT NE QUAD 06:36:00 Z

[Brent]

Well that is a huge southward shift, could have big implications down the road.

[RL3AO]

Now I have to stay up to see the 5am.

[Pebbles]

Now I have to stay up to see the 5am.

set the alarm.. better yet sleep through it. the 5am will still be there when you wake up Save the miss sleep night for when the storm is stronger and in the gulf.

[HurryKane]

I wanted to take a moment to let you know about a new model currently in the testing stages. It's called the S2K and it has excellent skill. Well, it's pretty good anyway. Actually, it has negative skill in every measurable way. It is generated from the implied storm positions and intensities based on the myriad of diverse viewpoints found on Storm2K. In fact, if you believe the S2K model,

1. Everyone, everywhere can now breathe a sigh of relief because clearly the storm is not going to x-location.
2. Everyone needs to watch the storm carefully, as everyone is now in the cone.
3. Everyone can be absolutely relieved because the storm is NOT coming to their area.
4. Everyone can be absolutely relieved because the storm IS coming to their area after all.
5. Oil futures can now be traded with the utmost accuracy because EVERY possible scenario is perfectly represented.

See the image below, making special note of the new "S2K" line in purple.

Cheers, and happy forecasting.



No representation is made that the image above is actually a valid forecast. In fact, this whole post was nothing more than a lighthearted attempt at humor after being completely worn out by Fay and Gustav.

Actually not representative of us that voted S. or D. on Jamaica at all.

remember, the hurricane is not a point. In fact Gustav will blow up to 3 times the size of the US, hit every place at once and then dissipate in my backyard to a swirl of leaves, possibly leaving a puddle.

Brilliant assist, Innotech!