ATL HANNA: Extratropical - Discussion

[Bocadude85]

I wonder if this could be similar to betsy track into florida?

[HURAKAN]

I think the NHC will wait for visible but 95L looks very upgradable at the moment.

[terrapintransit]

I think the NHC will wait for visible but 95L looks very upgradable at the moment.

I Agree

[boca]

Judging by the convection in the center and the tail to its east its my opinion that 95L is already a depression and will most likely be upgraded tomorrow morning.It looks better than Gustav right now.

[Lifesgud2]

Looks like Bermuda is in the path for this one..Fishy Fishy

[jaxfladude]

Well, it looks like I may have to watch this system closely too.....crazy tracks .........

[gatorcane]

extremely impressive tonight:

[cycloneye]

Looks impressive.

[Vortex]

here we go again...invest to ts status..

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I think this looks way better then Gustav, even so Gustav is trying to look better. I believe this is a depression, JMO. I think it will be Hanna by 5pm tomarrow.

[umguy]

I love and hate this time of year

[Chigger_Lopez]

I think what the WEST models are seeing is this totally missing the trough and just rotating around the ULL, which would explain the NW and then SW motion that they all display. If that trough does not pick it up, then I would assume that they would all jump on this solution immediately. JMHO

[SouthFLTropics]

I think what the WEST models are seeing is this totally missing the trough and just rotating around the ULL, which would explain the NW and then SW motion that they all display. If that trough does not pick it up, then I would assume that they would all jump on this solution immediately. JMHO

I think that is a very possible explanation...Maybe some pro mets could comment on this...

SFT

[bob rulz]

I think this looks way better then Gustav, even so Gustav is trying to look better. I believe this is a depression, JMO. I think it will be Hanna by 5pm tomarrow.

I thought quickscat showed no LLC?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Looking at night time visible, I see that ULL is having some serious impact on this system. With the LLC about a degree to the northwest of the convection and sliding away. It maybe elongated northwest to southeast, but it may not be as well formed as I was thinking. The ULLs this season are killing almost everything.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I think this looks way better then Gustav, even so Gustav is trying to look better. I believe this is a depression, JMO. I think it will be Hanna by 5pm tomarrow.

I thought quickscat showed no LLC?

WRONG, the quickscat has been showing a closed LLC. I strongly believe it is closed.

[Bocadude85]

I think what the WEST models are seeing is this totally missing the trough and just rotating around the ULL, which would explain the NW and then SW motion that they all display. If that trough does not pick it up, then I would assume that they would all jump on this solution immediately. JMHO

I think that is a very possible explanation...Maybe some pro mets could comment on this...

SFT

Read this from the 11pm NHC discussion on Gustav

"COMPLICATING THE FORECAST IN THE LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD IS THE
EVOLUTION AND IMPACT OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
CENTRAL OR WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AS WELL AS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
BLOCKING HIGH AT THE END OF THE PERIOD REMINISCENT OF WHAT HAPPENED
WITH FAY A WEEK OR SO AGO"

If that high develops it would trap 95l and force her westward and possibly southwestard.. kind of what the Euro is showing.

[Chigger_Lopez]

I think what the WEST models are seeing is this totally missing the trough and just rotating around the ULL, which would explain the NW and then SW motion that they all display. If that trough does not pick it up, then I would assume that they would all jump on this solution immediately. JMHO

I think that is a very possible explanation...Maybe some pro mets could comment on this...

SFT

Look at this WV Loop. I cant understand in my limited understanding, how 95 can go thru that ridge just like Gus cant go thru it. If it were not for the ULL, I would have to think that 95 would continue to head SW and just follow Gus right into the Carrib. Instead, it will flow NW around the ULL and if there is not rough, the high will drive it SW right into Florida. That is what I see. I am a total punk amateur though. Anyone else agree with what I see in this loop: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-wv.html

[jdjaguar]

95L is forming an eye.

[fci]

Looks like Bermuda is in the path for this one..Fishy Fishy

Climatologically, I agree with you.

However the models are slight down the middle on it so I would not be so quick to write 95L off as a fish.
Not just yet.....