ATL HANNA: Extratropical - Discussion

[Brent]

Just wondering...

Why does that very small amount of clouds in the upper left that image seem to be moving in a circular motion as if its rotating? (look about a inch below where it says 1mph)

It's an upper level low.

[Bocadude85]

I think if this does develop you've got to favor it getting picked up by the trough like some of the models are expecting. I'd expect the system to steadily turn more to the NW over the next 48hrs.

go to the models thread seems like most models show this moving south at some point.. even the new GFDL moves it south at the end of its run

[gtsmith]

some deep returns starting to show on the last frame of IR

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

[HenkL]

I think we can all agree that the EURO's run today is rather unusual. Going north and the southwest and then northwest toward Florida. Though Jeanne did have an unusual track, there's plenty of reasons to be skeptical of that run. Let's see if they become a trend.

The ECMWF model was rather unusual re Fay (passing Florida NE first, then going west), but is was consistent on it and proved well. I don't trust any model beyond five days, unless it has some consistency for at least three runs.

[Steve H.]

Bocadude, this will cause a lot of headaches no matter what it does, that's what storm tracking is about. The difference between the consecutive runs of the Euro is that the 0Z run had more of a slope from north of Puerto Rico thru the Bahamas, then coming in somewhere near Stuart FL then to the NW, whereas the 12Z has it going further north then moving SW into the central Bahamas (around Nassau) then coming in around Miami, then NNW......a much sharper turn. The previous days 0Z run had 95L going from its current position nwwd then bending to the WSW then west across the Florida into the GOM. The models will try to figure out a solution, but as posted previously, it may not be the trip, but the destination that they will hone in on. Interesting that the GFDL brings 95L toward Bermuda, then shunts it back to the south at hour 120.

[cpdaman]

well i did start that thread a few days back wondering if a storm has ever hit fl from the NE , so maybe i would be to blame? jk

anyway what is that uLL supposed to do/move

seems these things are not really mentioned much in forecasts over 24 hours, do they have poor information regarding tracking of these ULL's?

[RL3AO]

195N, 569W, 30, 1007

Winds up, pressure down.

[tgenius]

If this thing does come towards FL.. the media and NHC will have their hands full

[cpdaman]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html

lots of stuff happening in the nw atlantic, look at the trough, with that "pretty bowling ball type ULL rolling down the lane"

anyone and i mean anyone have any ideas how this trough and it's fast moving ull (at 40/60) will effect the ULL further SSW as well as 95 L

[RL3AO]

North winds...check
East winds...check
West winds...check
South winds...no check

It shows the center in the middle of the convection, but doesn't show any winds above 10 or 15 kt around it.

[LAwxrgal]

Oh boy, something else to keep our eyes on. Hard Head Hanna....

[Annie Oakley]

Oh boy, something else to keep our eyes on. Hard Head Hanna....

I like that! Hard Head Hanna lol! Rather charming.......

[Ed Mahmoud]

Just wondering...

Why does that very small amount of clouds in the upper left that image seem to be moving in a circular motion as if its rotating? (look about a inch below where it says 1mph)

It's an upper level low.

Far enough away to maybe induce an upper anticyclone over 95L and help ventilate it...

[Patrick99]

It looks like the ULL has gotten far enough away from 95L, so.....game on.

[Vortex]

this has the makings of large cyclone..18z model trends are in favor of the euro. tonight's 00z should be interesting..

[mel38]

when do those models come in?

[HURAKAN]

[CrazyC83]

Center is in the convection?

[gatorcane]

It looks like the ULL has gotten far enough away from 95L, so.....game on.

well hopefully it would be a better recurve candidate in that case.

I do have close eye on this one.

[Derek Ortt]

I think the center is a little ways to the west