ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... midshr.GIF

Shear is pretty much gone.

[Blown Away]

Is Gus moving a little S of W or is all the deep convection dying off towards the S?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

[Derek Ortt]

so good possibility gustav might fizzle out?

No. Not really.

you know full well there is a chance this won't make it. It does not have any model support and I'm not about to forecast dissipation, but given the shearit will have o endure for another 12-24 hours, there is at least a 10% chance

That shear map has had no shear all day

[latemodel25]

so good possibility gustav might fizzle out?

Did you or did you not see the wind prob table?

nope sure didnt.. i must have missed that one. i wonder if the model predicting it to break up "so to speak" missed it too? really weird how all these models have such different analysis. i understand timing is everything but it just seems like such a crap shoot sometimes

[deltadog03]

I see it clearly moving WSW...About due west of the tip of haiti.

[jaxfladude]

IMHO it is not a good idea to leave Gustav for dead until NHC/TPC declares it dead...

[RL3AO]

so good possibility gustav might fizzle out?

No. Not really.

you know full well there is a chance this won't make it. It does not have any model support and I'm not about to forecast dissipation, but given the shearit will have o endure for another 12-24 hours, there is at least a 10% chance

That shear map has had no shear all day

Yes its a possibility, but I wouldn't call it a good one. Like you said, 10 to 20%.

[stormchazer]

You have got to wonder after all the doomsday scenarios and nashing of teeth, if Gus is not going to fool us all and just go dare I say "poof"! This is why I love watching these storms. There is always the chance of a big suprise.

Just talking, not predicting.

[LSU2001]

You have got to wonder after all the doomsday scenarios and nashing of teeth, if Gus is not going to fool us all and just go dare I say "poof"! This is why I love watching these storms. There is always the chance of a big suprise.

IMHO, Poof is a very, very good thing. It does look bad tonight but I have seen worse looking systems rebound and rebound quickly. I think we are still very much in a watch and see mode and the next day or so will tell the tale.
Tim

[Derek Ortt]

I see it clearly moving WSW...About due west of the tip of haiti.

I think that's the shear displacing the convection

[deltadog03]

It could be...very hard to tell...I tried to speed the Sat. loop up and could see clouds spinning hard, but had a hard time trying to see movement...So..could be right.

[hial2]

The ONLY drawback to Gustav's "fizzing out"..the news media and the inevitable next time..
How many people will listen next time??..Chicken little comes to mind..

[Annie Oakley]

so good possibility gustav might fizzle out?

No. Not really.

you know full well there is a chance this won't make it. It does not have any model support and I'm not about to forecast dissipation, but given the shearit will have o endure for another 12-24 hours, there is at least a 10% chance

That shear map has had no shear all day

Derek-a 10 percent chance of what-surviving or dissapating?
This is getting confusing...because I believe you are so great at being a Met and I do pay attention to what you say- thanks!

[cheezyWXguy]

Well, it does appear that it is trying to absorb the blob south of jamaica attm. Convection is increasing in the southern rainbands with each new frame. The question is, will it be enough to refuel the storm? Personally, I think so, but its going to take a while. We will probably see this maintain at about 40-45mph overnight tonight, and if that convection does eventually wrap into the center, then a strengthening trend will be in store tomorrow. Nonetheless, I have become extremely unsure of the fate of this storm. This seems to be pulling an ernesto right now.

Well, it appears I was right. New convection has just popped up in the vicinity of Gustav's center. 2 blobs of red as more convection flows towards the center from the southwest. It will be a slow process, but I now do believe that Gustav will strengthen again, likely just at the last minute. Shear will likely relax in about 12 hours as the ULL to the NE drops SSE slowly and it may regain hurricane status in about 2 days. Remember people. Once this can reestablish an inner core with convection over the center, there is nothing to stop it from quickly strengthening.

[Stormcenter]

Yeah I know the models are saying Gus is going to be this and that "when" it gets into Carribean and then the GOM. But
let's ALL be honest here it really "continues" to sick. If I didn't know this was Gus I would say it was a wave just lby ooking at it. I mean did the NHC predict this? Did any of the models forecast this?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

[Weather Watcher]

Since it is not looking very good right now should NO declare a state of emergency so soon...

Louisiana Officials Declare State of Emergency in Advance of Gustav
Wednesday, August 27, 2008

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,411862,00.html

[cpdaman]

Death Annie , death 10% chance

[Blown Away]

HURAKAN, post that pic of Fay when she was a dot and everybody was writing her off. Fay came back from the dead not to become a big cane but a decent system again.

[LAwxrgal]

Yeah I know the models are saying Gus is going to be this and that "when" it gets into Carribean and then the GOM. But
let's ALL be honest here it really "continues" to sick. If I didn't it was Gus I would say it was a wave just looking at it.
I mean did the NHC predict this? Did any of the models forecast this?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

Didn't the GFS kinda call this? That Gustav would be weak in the near term?

[Frank P]

I see it clearly moving WSW...About due west of the tip of haiti.

The IR loops I've seen tonight make Gus look quite pitiful. more convection under jamacia than near Gus.. hardly no convection near the center at all ATTM... hard for me to accept that the NHC could nail such a forecast over 5 days out and the direct NOLA hit comes to fruition... got to go either west or east, it just has to, the law of averages has to pan out for the MS coast, we can't get majors every three years, that's insane..... and if not then this would be the greatest hurricane forecast of all times by the NHC or perhaps just lucky... maybe wishful thinking on my part... I've seen panic in many of my friends faces throughout the day.. I am talking real fear, something that I don't think I've ever seen before.. ... some to point of tears.. the MS coast can't take another major, I can't imagine how long this could add to the already slow Katrina recovery... all the hype from the media and local gov't agencies only adds to the pain.. this makes me sick