ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[MJA]

if the bigwigs that Warrior is talking about are who I think they are, then they are mets with many many years of experience... not saying any one person or model is right, but i was beginning to get complacent until now....

Well, I have also talked to some very reliable pro mets over the last few days and what they said was they believe the NHC has it pegged. And these are guys that have been on the Gulf Coast region for many, many years.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

One thing I noticed by looking at the last 3 runs through this system is that the wind field is developing higher winds. That means the wind field and the cyclone is becoming better organized.

[hurrican19]

Just spoke with some good pro mets...explaining different scenarios and what I got out of it was Galv-NOLA.

That's not really telling us anything

which is why I take what wx_warrior says with a grain of salt, won't cite his sources.

[wxman57]

Interesting how GFS now stops Gustav right before landfall, blocked by building high pressure to its north, shoves it west for a day offshore then southwest to east of Brownsville next Thursday then finally into northern Mexico on the 8th of September. Yeah, I buy that! Didn't I say Mexico on a forecast or two?

ECMWF does something similar, but hooks Gustav west at landfall a bit.

Of course both models show a completely different solution with each run. Like pulling the handle of a slot machine. Can't trust any of them.

Oh, and I've been doing this for 30 years now. You learn a lot over the decades, something every year/every storm. For Gustav, I'm not sure where it's going. The atmosphere across the Gulf and SW Atlantic is too complicated for any model to handle, apparently.

[HouTXmetro]

Interesting how GFS now stops Gustav right before landfall, blocked by building high pressure to its north, shoves it west for a day offshore then southwest to east of Brownsville next Thursday then finally into northern Mexico on the 8th of September. Yeah, I buy that! Didn't I say Mexico on a forecast or two?

ECMWF does something similar, but hooks Gustav west at landfall a bit.

Of course both models show a completely different solution with each run. Like pulling the handle of a slot machine. Can't trust any of them.

Oh, and I've been doing this for 30 years now. You learn a lot over the decades, something every year/every storm. For Gustav, I'm not sure where it's going. The atmosphere across the Gulf and SW Atlantic is too complicated for any model to handle, apparently.

Where is the ECMWF showing landfall?

[DESTRUCTION5]

Interesting how GFS now stops Gustav right before landfall, blocked by building high pressure to its north, shoves it west for a day offshore then southwest to east of Brownsville next Thursday then finally into northern Mexico on the 8th of September. Yeah, I buy that! Didn't I say Mexico on a forecast or two?

ECMWF does something similar, but hooks Gustav west at landfall a bit.

Of course both models show a completely different solution with each run. Like pulling the handle of a slot machine. Can't trust any of them.

Oh, and I've been doing this for 30 years now. You learn a lot over the decades, something every year/every storm. For Gustav, I'm not sure where it's going. The atmosphere across the Gulf and SW Atlantic is too complicated for any model to handle, apparently.

<collects his jaw>

[Wx_Warrior]

EURO was NOLA...

This is all about timing with these troughs....No models are safe bets @ this juncture.

[Smurfwicked]

Just spoke with some good pro mets...explaining different scenarios and what I got out of it was Galv-NOLA.

Wow. They must be really GOOD pro mets to narrow down a zone with confidence, especially considering the highly respected pro mets on S2K and our National Hurricane Center are all saying right now that the landfall forecast at day 5 and beyond remains highly speculative.

I'll put Stewart, or Franklin, or Wxman57, or Air Force Met, or Derek Ortt up against them any day!

I'm fairly sure, I have a good guess of who 2 of those pro mets might be coming from Wx_Warrior, and those are mets that I would consider seemingly respected. One of which I've watched and listened to for quite some time now and never seen him over-hype anything! I think people are blowing something out of proportion about that comment. I doubt those mets said, its going to make final landfall within that area, but more or less currently that would be the best possibility for potential landfall being this far out. I'd bet anything those mets also agree, that 5+ days out very little certainty can be made about landfall location.

Back on topic, I've seen a lot say Gustav has increased in forward speed, but to what? How fast is he moving now. I'm trying to gather an idea of how soon from now, the land interaction issues will start to no longer be a problem for intensification.

[RL3AO]

Either the center is reforming or this is moving WSW.

[KWT]

Well I think land interaction issues will decrease a little bit in the next 12-18hrs though won't be gone till this clears that SE tip of Cuba. Then things get more interesting as it should have a lot of open water and by that time should be in somewhat better shape as well to do something.

[vaffie]

Moving westsouthwest.

19 minutes west, 9 minutes south since the last recon flyover.

1907N 07435W to 1858N 07454W

[srainhoutx]

Interesting how GFS now stops Gustav right before landfall, blocked by building high pressure to its north, shoves it west for a day offshore then southwest to east of Brownsville next Thursday then finally into northern Mexico on the 8th of September. Yeah, I buy that! Didn't I say Mexico on a forecast or two?

ECMWF does something similar, but hooks Gustav west at landfall a bit.

Of course both models show a completely different solution with each run. Like pulling the handle of a slot machine. Can't trust any of them.

Oh, and I've been doing this for 30 years now. You learn a lot over the decades, something every year/every storm. For Gustav, I'm not sure where it's going. The atmosphere across the Gulf and SW Atlantic is too complicated for any model to handle, apparently.

Best analogy I've heard in a long time wxman57. And so true.

[KWT]

Yep very interesting little jog to the WSW according to recon, will wait for the next VDM to see exactly where it is but thats very interesting.

Center on the northern side of the convection, still looking sheared.

[Wthrman13]

Based on Cuban radar and the last few visible frames, It looks like the low-level circulation may becoming exposed west of the deep convection, which is interesting because the only shear I see over the system right now is some light northerly shear, with maybe some more intense northerly mid-level shear to its north over Cuba. It looks like there is a possible MLC still over extreme western Haiti, while the LLC has popped out and is now racing west. It's also possible that this LLC is a smaller vortex embedded in a larger circulation centered closer to the Haitian coast. Whether its the shear or land interaction or both that have contributed to this, I don't know, but it should limit re-intensification in the short term.

[RL3AO]

Based on Cuban radar and the last few visible frames, It looks like the low-level circulation may becoming exposed west of the deep convection, which is interesting because the only shear I see over the system right now is some light northerly shear, with maybe some more intense northerly mid-level shear to its north over Cuba. It looks like there is a possible MLC still over extreme western Haiti, while the LLC has popped out and is now racing west. It's also possible that this LLC is a smaller vortex embedded in a larger circulation centered closer to the Haitian coast. Whether its the shear or land interaction or both that have contributed to this, I don't know, but it should limit re-intensification in the short term.

Trying to pull a Chris on us?

[KWT]

Yeah theres certainly something spinning to the west of the convection looking at the high resolution imagery, looks pretty strong as well...wonder if that is the LLC or just an eddy?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Based on Cuban radar and the last few visible frames, It looks like the low-level circulation may becoming exposed west of the deep convection, which is interesting because the only shear I see over the system right now is some light northerly shear, with maybe some more intense northerly mid-level shear to its north over Cuba. It looks like there is a possible MLC still over extreme western Haiti, while the LLC has popped out and is now racing west. It's also possible that this LLC is a smaller vortex embedded in a larger circulation centered closer to the Haitian coast. Whether its the shear or land interaction or both that have contributed to this, I don't know, but it should limit re-intensification in the short term.

Trying to pull a Chris on us?

It would not suprize me with this season. That is why "I" would not get to worked up with something that is over 120 hours in the future yet. I think it is more likely that the LLC moves westward and redevelops a MLC once north of Jamaica around 24-30 hours time frame. We could start to see the formation of one later tonight. This system has a lot of work ahead of it...Who would of expected it would loss 45 knots by going over the tip of Hati a few days ago.

[gatorcane]

Matt yeah you are right.

My interest is continuing to decrease with Gustav as convection continues to fizzle. In 24 hours I may regain some interest.

[KWT]

The key thing to note is it has 96hrs over some super high heat content, even a 24-36hrs window of good conditions should allow 30-50mbs of deepening in this region of the basin...

[jlauderdal]

Matt yeah you are right.

My interest is continuing to decrease with Gustav as convection continues to fizzle. In 24 hours I may regain some interest.

all Florida residents move over to the 95L thread