ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[Derek Ortt]

the new convective burst has already been sheared away

you need to wait at least 24 hours to see this do anything

[Shawee]

A question for the pro mets.If 95L develops into a Tropical Cyclone,will it affect the track of Gustav?

it depends on the distance between Gustav and 95L, the upper level steering currents, and the future tracks. We may see a Fujiwara effect between these storms, but we won't know unless 95L develops.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fujiwhara_effect

Has this ever been documented in the Atlantic Basin?

[jasons2k]

Well this excerpt from the 5pm discussion.
It should make everyone along the Gulf
coast feel comfortable.


It is important to note that there still remains significant
uncertainty regarding Gustav's ultimate track at days 3-5...and it
is much too soon to know what impact this system may have on the
northern Gulf Coast.

I'm almost willing to Wager making a bet similar to Ed if anything came towards upper TX Coast. I just don't see that happening. I think the NHC's track for landfall now is dead on give or take 75 miles east or west.

UNOFFICIAL FORECAST

I just don't see a 75-mile margin of error from 5-6 days out. (Edit 150: 75 + 75 = 150, but still) Not saying it's impossible, just very, very unlikely. As we have seen today and will see down the road, a subtle change in the timing of the features could change anything. I think about the only thing that's safe to say right now is that the Mexico option is off the table (that was clear this morning) but I wouldn't start narrowing the blinders beyond that just yet.

It's still 5-6 days away, with a LOT of real estate to tread, don't forget that.

[SouthFLTropics]

At this point I'm not sure which one is stronger, 95L is definitely much larger right now and increasing in organization faster than Gustav but we know things can change.

I would definitely say that Gustav is the bigger boy in this picture just because it has an established circulation "core" versus 95L. Now size wise, as far as convection is going, 95L wins hands down. But as we all know the circulation is what does the work...Convection don't mean squat without a circulation...

SFT

[WmE]

A question for the pro mets.If 95L develops into a Tropical Cyclone,will it affect the track of Gustav?

it depends on the distance between Gustav and 95L, the upper level steering currents, and the future tracks. We may see a Fujiwara effect between these storms, but we won't know unless 95L develops.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fujiwhara_effect

Has this ever been documented in the Atlantic Basin?

Just read your link. It says it all.

[Innotech]

well, today was INSANE at work.
To say that people are panicking would be a vast understatement.
I guess its great that people are taking this seriously, but gas stations are selling out of fuel faster than we can get trucks loaded and dispatched back out there. the whole New Orleans/chalmette region is an absolute nightmare.

[ColdFusion]

the new convective burst has already been sheared away

you need to wait at least 24 hours to see this do anything

Still seeing new pops in the area on the 1k
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... ive_0.html

[Just Joshing You]

Ray Nagin will be on CNN discussing the situation very soon.

[Just Joshing You]

CNN is hyping this up..

"We could be lookin' at a 4... easily"

[dwg71]

I would expect slow development. 24+ hours to regain any semblence of its prior self.

[gatorcane]

the new convective burst has already been sheared away

you need to wait at least 24 hours to see this do anything

Still seeing new pops in the area on the 1k
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... ive_0.html

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

I'm sorry I just see a badly hurting Gustav right now. There is shear, land interaction, dry air.... --- and I expect alot of the yellow convection you see to be fizzling as the evening progresses leaving some brief bursts of convection near the center that gets quickly sheared away.

By later tonight, I don't think Gustav is going to look like much on satellite.

I'm not saying its dead but its in serious trouble at the moment. It will need at least 24 hours to make a good comeback. If it manages to get closer to the large Eastern Cuban mountains its doomed even more.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-avn.html

[N2Storms]

[quote="extradited"]Ray Nagin will be on CNN discussing the situation very soon.[/quote]


I could write a response about a paragraph long but I'll just keep my fingers still

[Nederlander]

A question for the pro mets.If 95L develops into a Tropical Cyclone,will it affect the track of Gustav?

it depends on the distance between Gustav and 95L, the upper level steering currents, and the future tracks. We may see a Fujiwara effect between these storms, but we won't know unless 95L develops.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fujiwhara_effect

Has this ever been documented in the Atlantic Basin?

Wilma and TS Alpha-2005

And a few systems did this back in 1995.. according to wikipedia

[SouthFLTropics]

Ray Nagin will be on CNN discussing the situation very soon.

There is definitely one thing for sure...After 2005 the city, county, state, and federal authorities better get this right this time...and that includes FEMA of course. If they don't I would assure you that there will be some serious HE double hockey sticks to pay after the dust settles.

SFT

[Just Joshing You]

Ray Nagin will be on CNN discussing the situation very soon.

I could write a response about a paragraph long but I'll just keep my fingers still

Ya, so you made the right decision to just spam? I'm no better I guess.

[WmE]

I would expect slow development. 24+ hours to regain any semblence of its prior self.

Yep I agree. I see this slowly organizing as well.

[TideJoe]

Ray Nagin will be on CNN discussing the situation very soon.

LOL....... whew, we can all breath easier now. Nagin is in charge.

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 272147
AF302 0507A GUSTAV HDOB 40 20080827
213700 1843N 07339W 8436 01530 0055 +180 +130 186036 037 026 003 00
213730 1842N 07337W 8428 01537 0059 +174 +130 187037 037 025 005 00
213800 1842N 07336W 8432 01537 0067 +164 +130 187036 038 025 006 03
213830 1843N 07334W 8426 01543 0065 +168 +130 189037 039 999 999 03
213900 1844N 07334W 8442 01526 0064 +170 +130 184037 038 030 006 03
213930 1846N 07335W 8429 01538 0059 +175 +130 183038 039 031 006 00
214000 1848N 07335W 8430 01538 0058 +180 +130 183035 036 034 004 00
214030 1850N 07335W 8428 01539 0060 +177 +130 181034 035 032 004 00
214100 1852N 07335W 8428 01541 0061 +175 +130 179035 035 032 003 00
214130 1854N 07335W 8428 01543 0067 +166 +130 176032 033 031 004 00
214200 1856N 07335W 8431 01539 0067 +167 +130 178033 034 032 002 00
214230 1858N 07335W 8428 01540 0062 +173 +130 180034 036 034 002 00
214300 1900N 07335W 8432 01538 0063 +175 +130 179029 030 032 004 00
214330 1902N 07335W 8430 01541 0062 +175 +130 178027 027 030 003 00
214400 1904N 07335W 8431 01538 0063 +173 +130 178028 028 031 003 00
214430 1905N 07335W 8427 01543 0062 +174 +130 180027 028 031 003 00
214500 1907N 07335W 8428 01543 0064 +173 +130 177028 029 032 002 00
214530 1909N 07335W 8428 01542 0066 +169 +130 173030 030 032 002 00
214600 1911N 07335W 8428 01543 0068 +168 +130 175031 031 032 001 00
214630 1913N 07335W 8428 01543 0068 +169 +130 176032 032 031 002 00
$$

[Just Joshing You]

Ray Nagin will be on CNN discussing the situation very soon.

There is definitely one thing for sure...After 2005 the city, county, state, and federal authorities better get this right this time...and that includes FEMA of course. If they don't I would assure you that there will be some serious HE double hockey sticks to pay after the dust settles.

SFT

I'm just wondering how fast it will take for the Presidential nominee's to rush to the podium to discuss this.

[RL3AO]

Wrong thread crazy.