ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[gilbert88]

If the NHC is predicting this to become a major hurricane in the GoM is because they HAVE enough evidence to support such a scenario.

I know some people might be scared or confused by the thought of another major entering the Gulf, but PLEASE, stop posting ignorant blurbs about Gustav dissipating, it's very irresponsible.

Many were quick to write Dolly off and even bash the NHC for upgrading it, and look at what it did to SPI as CAT ONE hurricane. Downplaying storms is also -removed-.

[dwg71]

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/ ... nhanced+12

"convection is firing near the center" ???? Sorry, dont see it yet.

[ColdFusion]

Funny thing is that I kept mentioning the ULL and the shear possibilities that would affect Gustav yesterday but I didn't get much of a response.....

Didn't we already have this discussion?

Its not your ULL causing the shear.

Thats what makes it a 'Funny Thing'

[Stormcenter]

Now who said this was intensifying?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

[cpdaman]

If the NHC is predicting this to become a major hurricane in the GoM is because they HAVE enough evidence to support such a scenario.

I know some people might be scared or confused by the thought of another major entering the Gulf, but PLEASE, stop posting ignorant blurbs about Gustav dissipating, it's very irresponsible.

Many were quick to write Dolly off and even bash the NHC for upgrading it, and look at what it did to SPI as CAT ONE hurricane. Downplaying storms is also -removed-.

your confused my friend, there is nothing ignorant about posting possible changes in tracks, the storm is many many days away from gulf we will know in the next day about any dissipation chances with plenty of time for everyone on the gulf to continue to prepare, an attempt to stop people from talking about current possiblities maybe ok in china , not here

[TideJoe]

If the NHC is predicting this to become a major hurricane in the GoM is because they HAVE enough evidence to support such a scenario.

I know some people might be scared or confused by the thought of another major entering the Gulf, but PLEASE, stop posting ignorant blurbs about Gustav dissipating, it's very irresponsible.

Many were quick to write Dolly off and even bash the NHC for upgrading it, and look at what it did to SPI as CAT ONE hurricane. Downplaying storms is also -removed-.

your confused my friend, there is nothing ignorant about posting possible changes in tracks, the storm is many many days away from gulf we will know in the next day about any dissipation chances with plenty of time for everyone on the gulf to continue to prepare

Many, many days....... you mean 3? It's supposed to be entering the Gulf on Saturday.

[shawn67]

Maybe we should have a motto...

"Nowcasting...JUST DON'T DO IT"

[Comanche]

I've got to say, it's been a little humorous to see the tone change on this board the last day or so. Went from talk of a model showing "Gus as a Cat 5 going into Grand Isle to talk of Gus is dead or dying - next storm, please."

Dolly wasn't much too look at for much of her life span until she finally got the LLC going and then she took off - many here were saying good thing she didn't have more time over water.

Gustav is certainly ragged on sat presentation, but outflow is improving in most quadrants, convection continues to fire, center isn't exposed, recon is finding a partial eye-wall, highest heat in the basin awaits, and potentially explosive development awaits in the Gulf - it's a little hard for me to write something off with all of that going on.

Kind of like the saying "What doesn't kill me strengthens me."

Funny. Not taking any personal swipes at any one poster, but when people hear I am getting storm info from a forum board they think I am crazy. I tell them it's like panning for gold, you have to sift through alot of pebbles and a little fools gold, but you find shiny nuggets. Thank you all pro's for participating here.

[Nexus]

Recon was checking out an area WNW of the VDM location:

[cycloneye]

Who said Gustav is dead.

000
URNT12 KNHC 271957
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL072008
A. 27/19:24:30Z
B. 19 deg 04 min N
074 deg 12 min W
C. 850 mb 1433 m
D. 25 kt
E. 225 deg 35 nm
F. 306 deg 017 kt
G. 233 deg 071 nm
H. 999 mb
I. 17 C/ 1525 m
J. 19 C/ 1528 m
K. 13 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/8
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF302 0507A GUSTAV OB 08
MAX FL WIND 32 KT E QUAD 18:07:10 Z
CURVED BAND N-SE INDICATED ON RADAR

[RL3AO]

Movement between two VDMs is 305 at 12.8 kt

[ColdFusion]

wwltv.com out of new orleans about to stream a Gustav Briefing. Scheduled for 3pm CT.

http://www.wwltv.com/video/?nvid=57429&live=yes

[dwg71]

last two vm's show 10 minutes North and 14 Minutes west. WNW or a little greater

[BigB0882]

Who said Gustav is dead.

000
URNT12 KNHC 271957
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL072008
A. 27/19:24:30Z
B. 19 deg 04 min N
074 deg 12 min W
C. 850 mb 1433 m
D. 25 kt
E. 225 deg 35 nm
F. 306 deg 017 kt
G. 233 deg 071 nm
H. 999 mb
I. 17 C/ 1525 m
J. 19 C/ 1528 m
K. 13 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/8
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF302 0507A GUSTAV OB 08
MAX FL WIND 32 KT E QUAD 18:07:10 Z
CURVED BAND N-SE INDICATED ON RADAR

Would you mind translating? lol

[Texas Snowman]

Convection near center - center is near tip of the SW peninsula, convection increase beginning to show near the SW tip.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn-l.jpg

[93superstorm]

I can see now where the center is on this radar. Its a half curved band just north of the tip of the island. It actually looks like it slowly getting more defined:



Thoughts?

[tolakram]

Convection continues to fire near the center.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_2

I see very little discernible movement.

I find this very useful in looking for movement.
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... ive_0.html

That's the link I usually give out but the floater motion does not equate to the center motion and it can give a false illusion of direction. Sometimes you have to step back and look.

[ColdFusion]

Convection continues to fire near the center.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_2

I see very little discernible movement.

I find this very useful in looking for movement.
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... ive_0.html

That's the link I usually give out but the floater motion does not equate to the center motion and it can give a false illusion of direction. Sometimes you have to step back and look.

Ah, noted.

[cpdaman]

Who said Gustav is dead.

000
URNT12 KNHC 271957
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL072008
A. 27/19:24:30Z
B. 19 deg 04 min N
074 deg 12 min W
C. 850 mb 1433 m
D. 25 kt
E. 225 deg 35 nm
F. 306 deg 017 kt
G. 233 deg 071 nm
H. 999 mb
I. 17 C/ 1525 m
J. 19 C/ 1528 m
K. 13 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/8
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF302 0507A GUSTAV OB 08
MAX FL WIND 32 KT E QUAD 18:07:10 Z
CURVED BAND N-SE INDICATED ON RADAR

nobody, but should he go 305 degrees for another 24 hours he maybe found dead over cuba (35% chance IM amateur idiotic opinion )

i think he will re-strenghen enough just prior to cuban landfall to feel the deep layer ridge and move due west (in about 6 or so hours)

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Another suprize "northward" run. It would not take more then a degree for this to spend over a day over Cuba. In it would not take more then half a degree more to take it over the spine of the island. It all has to do with strength of the ridge to the north, it could turn out to be weaker. Nothing is set in stone yet.