ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[mutley]

In the most recent VIS photo, Gustav has almost a trough-like appearance:

http://www.geocities.com/floridaweathersummary/gustav

...the forecast was intensification

If it ever gets away from land, it likely will.

[Nederlander]

Well it has stopped weakening(however weak it is). Pressure down 1 mb per recon.

Gentleman, start your engines...

[jenmrk]

I can't offer much of anything to the forum as far as predictions but I can add some humor which I am sure we could all use now so here is my contribution. I hope this is ok.

IMG]http://i214.photobucket.com/albums/cc286/jenmrk99/2004-09-25-HurricaneCartoons-0013.jpg[/IMG]

[Frank2]

Well, that might just be the afternoon lowering of pressure - 1mb is about right for that...

It's just too soon to know, folks, and, per the above hurricane list, many a weak system has become much more than that in the Gulf, but, that said, many a strong system that encountered the 10,000' mountains of Hispanola weakened to a TS, so...

Some have compared that weakening to a perfectly-spinning top - once it's upset by an external force, it might still spin, but, never as well as it did before it became off-balanced...

Really, it's the same process - just on a much larger scale...

Still, know that many are praying about this, so, don't give up hope...

[cpdaman]

For those thinking it will do nothing if it enters the Gulf or NW Caribbean as nothing, consider these:

1900 Galveston Hurricane - tropical storm entering the Gulf, strong Category 4 in the NW Gulf before possibly weakening a bit

Hurricane Celia - tropical depression off Cuba entering the Gulf, Category 3/4 at landfall in TX

Hurricane Frederic - tropical storm entering the Gulf, Category 4 off the AL coast before weakening slightly

Hurricane Opal - tropical depression entering the Gulf, strong Category 4 in the Loop Current before weakening

Hurricane Lili - tropical storm approaching W Cuba, Category 4 off the LA coast before rapid weakening

Hurricane Wilma - tropical wave entering the NW Caribbean, we know what happened next...

i don't think anyone was thinking it would do nothing SHOULD it enter the gulf

i think people are a bit confused by the few people that are giving the storm a 20-30% chance of going WNW into cuba than going bye-bye, the seemingly defensive response to this small group of posters merely stating this chance, seems to have added to that confusion and made this a bigger issue.......but were a big family and we will move past that

[ColdFusion]

ahhhhhhh...can't you feel the sanity coming back to the board after an hour of lunacy.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The NHC was 100% correct, this is starting to reintensify exactly as their
discussion mentioned it would.

[Lowpressure]

ahhhhhhh...can't you feel the sanity coming back to the board after an hour of lunacy.

Ahh, no.

[mutley]

ahhhhhhh...can't you feel the sanity coming back to the board after an hour of lunacy.

I thought I was witnessing a cult being born.

[stormy1970al]

Well I am off to work till midnight. Will check back in later. Looks like the action is picking up as I leave. Checking on WKRG.com it says it is re-entering the water slowly.

http://www.wkrg.com/

[tolakram]

Convection continues to fire near the center.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_2

I see very little discernible movement.

[cpdaman]

The NHC was 100% correct, this is starting to reintensify exactly as their
discussion mentioned it would.

the few hours of re-intensification is not the point over next several hours, the big question is movement and avoidance of cuba (unless it is a a few hour trip) should this remain weak enough to stay in a WNW motion and take a relatively long route thru cuba it doesn't look good for him, should he turn back to the west now, he will be very powerful IMO. waiting game

[shawn67]

ahhhhhhh...can't you feel the sanity coming back to the board after an hour of lunacy.

I thought I was witnessing a cult being born.

BAHAHAHAHA.. That was funny. Accurate but still funny.

[hiflyer]

A sad note regarding how slow Gustav is moving away from the lower west peninsula and the capital.....this has had to bring large numbers in inches of rain over the past 36 hrs to an area heavily deforested.....I have seen video from the city but my concern is the outlying areas. I am sure DR has also taken a large quantity but their better land management should blunt some of it. time and time we look at the winds while the water kills you.

[ColdFusion]

Convection continues to fire near the center.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_2

I see very little discernible movement.

I find this very useful in looking for movement.
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... ive_0.html

[Texas Snowman]

I've got to say, it's been a little humorous to see the tone change on this board the last day or so. Went from talk of a model showing "Gus as a Cat 5 going into Grand Isle to talk of Gus is dead or dying - next storm, please."

Dolly wasn't much too look at for much of her life span until she finally got the LLC going and then she took off - many here were saying good thing she didn't have more time over water.

Gustav is certainly ragged on sat presentation, but outflow is improving in most quadrants, convection continues to fire, center isn't exposed, recon is finding a partial eye-wall, highest heat in the basin awaits, and potentially explosive development awaits in the Gulf - it's a little hard for me to write something off with all of that going on.

Kind of like the saying "What doesn't kill me strengthens me."

[Stormcenter]

Convection continues to fire near the center.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_2

I see very little discernible movement.

I find this very useful in looking for movement.
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... ive_0.html

It "looks" wnw to me.

[cpdaman]

delete

[Air Force Met]

Funny thing is that I kept mentioning the ULL and the shear possibilities that would affect Gustav yesterday but I didn't get much of a response.....

Didn't we already have this discussion?

Its not your ULL causing the shear.

[ColdFusion]

Convection continues to fire near the center.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_2

I see very little discernible movement.

I find this very useful in looking for movement.
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... ive_0.html

It "looks" wnw to me.

Yeah, i know its just a few frames, but if you watch how the lines move through the loop, you notice more of a westerly component towards the end. A trend? I dunno.