ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[Ivanhater]

Its funny watching the posts in here now..talking about Gustav dying..yeah would be great, but not likely at all...there is not much land around it now after moving off Hati

[Noles2006]

Its funny watching the posts in here now..talking about Gustav dying..yeah would be great, but not likely at all...there is not much land around it now after moving off Hati

I think it's more likely than you think...

[Wx_Warrior]

New EURO - Cat 3/4 west of NOLA on Tues....FWIW

[TideJoe]

Its funny watching the posts in here now..talking about Gustav dying..yeah would be great, but not likely at all...there is not much land around it now after moving off Hati

It's comical..... in 4-5 hours everyone will be talking about it strengthening again. This board can be pretty fickle.

[dwg71]

Its funny watching the posts in here now..talking about Gustav dying..yeah would be great, but not likely at all...there is not much land around it now after moving off Hati

I think it's more likely than you think...

Shear is also a factor. A path more nw to mountainous Cuba would be a factor. but agreed less than 30% of being dead.

[ConvergenceZone]

Its funny watching the posts in here now..talking about Gustav dying..yeah would be great, but not likely at all...there is not much land around it now after moving off Hati

Ivanhater, go back and read some of Derek's posts...I think he's on to something..Appears to be heading to Eastern Cuba, and it may do a number on whatever is left of the storm.

I've seen Derek call these things before and a few hours later the NHC is saying the same thing...that's why I listen to what he says...

[Just Joshing You]

I think the HWRF is going to shine, just watch.

[DIwestender]

What does the latest HWRF show?

[Wx_Warrior]

Pick a model any model....LOL...HWRF will move 4-6 more times before landfall. As will others.

[HouTXmetro]

New EURO - Cat 3/4 west of NOLA on Tues....FWIW

Another eastward shift for the EURO right?

[Just Joshing You]

Slow intensification until close to Gulf, then either E.I or R.I into the gulf, then steady weakening towards the coast. Note that the pressure at landfall is like 912 MBR or something, however...

[AL Chili Pepper]

Haiti gave him a nice punch in the gut, but shortwave satellite shows a good little spin going on north of the coast right where the plane located the center, and the symmetry seems to be getting a little better. It's not done yet.

[Stormcenter]

New EURO - Cat 3/4 west of NOLA on Tues....FWIW

Well hopefully this will be a mute point is there is nothing to
become a Cat 3/4 to on Tues. Hey it never hurts to wish.

[ColdFusion]

Could we possibly see a slight relocation of the center? (ok, look dont throw stones, at least give me some cred for trying to put an end to the 'its dead' posts)

Here's what I am seeing (or imagining)

Looking at the vis (http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... ive_0.html) , I'm seeing (granted from just a few frames) what might be the LLC just to the SW of the 'head of the shaft'.

Also, on IR, there is a new pop of red cloud tops in that area....
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

anyone?

[deltadog03]

New EURO - Cat 3/4 west of NOLA on Tues....FWIW

Another eastward shift for the EURO right?

yes.

[RL3AO]

Ivanhater, go back and read some of Derek's posts...I think he's on to something..Appears to be heading to Eastern Cuba, and it may do a number on whatever is left of the storm.

I've seen Derek call these things before and a few hours later the NHC is saying the same thing...that's why I listen to what he says...

Like this one?

I'm thinking it maintains weak TS/TD status for 24, then intensifies steadily afterward

[Wx_Warrior]

Yes metro....0z EURO had a TX/LA landfall.

[gatorcane]

Funny thing is that I kept mentioning the ULL and the shear possibilities that would affect Gustav yesterday but I didn't get much of a response.....

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I realize that everyone, myself included, would wish for Gustav to die
especially when it is forecasted to become a major hurricane.
But unfortunately, this storm is going to move over some of the highest
heat content water in the basin, and shear, while present, is not yet
prohibitive. Unless this goes over a majority of Cuba, it will likely
remain over hot water and deepen explosively into a category 2/3 (whatever
the 11 AM NHC track has),
then cross Cuba and follow NHC's thinking from there.

[deltadog03]

Funny thing is that I kept mentioning the ULL and the shear possibilities that would affect Gustav yesterday but I didn't get much of a response.....

Gator, don't think its so much the ULL...Its just now moving away from the eastern side of that ridge...