ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[Frank2]

I did see Star Trek yesterday morning (for a few minutes), now that you mention it - one of those goofy episodes were they're saying, "Captian, I'm giving it all she's got!", or, something like that...

LOL

P.S. It's been one of those weeks for me, folks - can't you tell...

[tolakram]

FYI here is the link for Cuban radar:

http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB ... B1=RADARES

[alienstorm]

Remember Wilma went to sleep as a tropical storm woke up to a CAT 5..

Are you saying thsi will be another Wilma?

No, but if conditions are there it shoulds intensify rapidily. All this talk that it is dead and very premature.

[gboudx]

Update from jeff:

Dangerous hurricane forecasted into the north-central Gulf of Mexico late this weekend.

Current:

Gustav turns to the west…and so it begins. The center is tracking just offshore of W Haiti and should clear the nation this evening.

Track:

Incoming global models are split all over the place with the new GFS showing a more westward track into agreement with the 12Z HWRF while the GFDL has shifted E toward MS and the NOGAPS shows the FL panhandle. The problem remains the timing and ridge intensity issues this weekend over the SE US. I still think the current W motion may dip WSW as suggested by the 12Z HWRF…just a gut feeling with some backing with the large high to its NW…especially since it is moving now.

Anyhow the threat remains for nearly the entire Gulf coast from TX to the FL panhandle.

Actions:

The State of TX Hurricane Response Plan will be activated at 300pm today (H-120)

H-72 is set for 300pm Friday

H-0 is set for 300pm Monday (onset of TS force winds)

This is a contingency timeline for a state of TX impact.

At 800am Thursday morning the state will activate the DMS highway signs with the hurricane PSA. At that time the state fuel team will begin to monitor fuel trends in coastal regions for supply issues and if needed activate the fuel push contracts.

To support the state hurricane response plan 5000 TX National Guard troops will be placed on stand-by.

750 buses to support special needs evacuation will be staged.

[cycloneye]

The best Track at 18:00 UTC downgrades the winds to 45kts.

AL, 07, 2008082718, , BEST, 0, 189N, 740W, 45, 999, TS,

[Frank2]

Seriously, though, each system is unique from the next, so, all need to be cautious not to compare this to Katrina (I wish the media would read this - every 5 minutes)...

Frank

[Mattie]

La SPCA to begin evacuating animals from New Orleans shelter on Thursday

Posted: Aug 27, 2008 08:20 AM

Updated: Aug 27, 2008 08:20 AM

NEW ORLEANS (AP) - The Louisiana SPCA says its shelter in New Orleans will close at 2:00 p.m. Wednesday so staffers can get ready to begin evacuating animals to Baton Rouge on Thursday.

Director Ana Zorrilla says the group's guidelines call for beginning preparations at least 96 hours before a threat from a potential Category 3 storm. She says that some models indicate that the storm could enter the Gulf of Mexico as early as Saturday and she says they definitely don't want to wait until Saturday or Sunday to decide what to do.

Zorilla says the best plan is to prepare ahead of time and allow enough time for a safe evacuation. She says that on Thursday, the shelter will begin moving all owned animals in its care to its shelter partner in Baton Rouge. On Friday and Saturday, it will evacuate strays and adoptable animals to partner shelters in Texas.

[ConvergenceZone]

Surely I'm not the only one who sees the constant convective bursts and realizes this is EASILY steadily organizing???

and the recon pressure is 4mb higher than this morning and FL winds in the NE quad only support a TD now

This is fantastic news thanks Derek!I'm sure everyone is breathing a sigh of relief now......Phew......... The intensity forecast should be brought down gradually over the next couple of updates...I guess it's always possible though for it to restrengthen into a cane before it hits the gulf states, but at least now it's looking less likely.

[Stormcenter]

Remember Wilma went to sleep as a tropical storm woke up to a CAT 5..

Are you saying thsi will be another Wilma?

[gatorcane]

a weaker system likely will go more north in the short term. This likely now will bring it over SE Cuba

it is also making me root for 95L to develop, I am quite sick and tired of running high resolution models over high mountains! It is blowing up the tracking algorithm. I'll bail out immediately and switch to 95L if it develops soon

If Gustav jogs a bit more WNW or NW because its weak --- and hits the big mountains of Eastern Cuba its gone for sure.

But we won't be so lucky I'm afraid. Still, its a mess at this point. I'm gradually shifting my attention to 95L which has no 10,000 ft mountains that are wrecking it at the moment.

[dwg71]

The best Track at 18:00 UTC downgrades the winds to 45kts.

AL, 07, 2008082718, , BEST, 0, 189N, 740W, 45, 999, TS,

To be quite honest, i think that is even generous. more like 35 imo.

[Hurricane Cheese]

I think the thought of writing this system off will prove most unwise. Trust the NHC, they've done well in recent years and call for a major cane in the gulf in the coming days.

[cpdaman]

just checking back on board for first time in about 18 hours , when i left i thought gustav would be in/very near haiti thru morning and wanted to avoid all the posts of those trying to balance patience w/ uncertainty and storm expecations LOL

i would think it would miss cuba even if it's weak for another 24 b/c it's moving west now , why would it turn more WNW in the short term anyway after moving west already? i think derek mentioned weaker more north (but no el understando)

i frankly don't have the patience for this storm, but i can't stay away from this board for more than 24 hours so it will be interesting, especially since this could bomb out should it get away from haiti, cuba, jamaica (likely IMO although jamaica maybe) and shear (eventually)

[Mattie]

Surely I'm not the only one who sees the constant convective bursts and realizes this is EASILY steadily organizing???

and the recon pressure is 4mb higher than this morning and FL winds in the NE quad only support a TD now

This is fantastic news thanks Derek!I'm sure everyone is breathing a sigh of relief now......Phew......... The intensity forecast should be brought down gradually over the next couple of updates...I guess it's always possible though for it to restrengthen into a cane before it hits the gulf states, but at least now it's looking less likely.

Surely, this is "tongue in cheek" . . . just kidding, right??

[Jason_B]

Seriously, though, each system is unique from the next, so, all need to be cautious not to compare this to Katrina (I wish the media would read this - every 5 minutes)...

Frank

No offense Frank but that's just natural for people to compare a storm that's out there to one they've experienced in their area. And besides I'd rather people remember what happened during Katrina and prepare harder this time around as opposed to just blowing it off and letting the same disaster happen all over again. If one good thing did come from Katrina it was that she taught people how to prepare better for storms like Gustav.

[TCmet]

Convection disappearing over the center. Throwing some extra uncertainty on the short-term forecast.

Still, in 24 hours, this will look completely different, sitting just south of Cuba over that extremely high oceanic heat content.

[Derek Ortt]

just checking back on board for first time in about 18 hours , when i left i thought gustav would be in/very near haiti thru morning and wanted to avoid all the posts of those trying to balance patience w/ uncertainty and storm expecations LOL

i would think it would miss cuba even if it's weak for another 24 b/c it's moving west now , why would it turn more WNW in the short term anyway after moving west already? i think derek mentioned weaker more north (but no el understando)

i frankly don't have the patience for this storm, but i can't stay away from this board for more than 24 hours so it will be interesting, especially since this could bomb out should it get away from haiti, cuba, jamaica (likely IMO) and shear (eventually)

its not moving west. The recon fix shows a continuation of the WNW track

The reason weak means north is that it is a deep layer ridge that is expected to force the system west

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html

weak low-level ridge

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm5.html

strong deep layer ridge

[mutley]

This is fantastic news thanks Derek!I'm sure everyone is breathing a sigh of relief now......Phew.........

Derek killed Gustav?

[Praxus]

This is fantastic news thanks Derek!I'm sure everyone is breathing a sigh of relief now......Phew......... The intensity forecast should be brought down gradually over the next couple of updates...I guess it's always possible though for it to restrengthen into a cane before it hits the gulf states, but at least now it's looking less likely.

Whoa he just said it would sit as a depression or tropical storm for a day or so, AND THEN INTENSIFY. Hitting the gulf coast somewhere as a major cane is still a strong possibility!

[sfwx]

Seriously people....Are we really starting the its dead jim chants??? Like Really??? Come on, what do yall expect, it SAT over mountains..

No kidding!! Some of the posts are SO predictable with each storm!!