ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[mutley]

Accuweathers latest thoughts... NHC is still the main source..

The difference between the accuweather track and the NHC is huge. Like arguably outside the cone of error huge.

Landfall is also about a day and a half later.

[Ed Mahmoud]

If you're in Texas, the trend is your friend. The UK Met now aims at Central Louisiana, and the Canadian is closer to New Orleans.



The model trend could keep shifting even farther East, in my humble, unofficial and amateur opinion. Everyone on the Gulf should pay attention, especially between about New Iberia and A'p'cola, Florida.

[Derek Ortt]

http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/weather/0 ... cnn_latest

CNN is now confirming 17 dead... number keeps going up on each update.

I am concerned about Jacmel where it made landfall. If it was bisected by flooding, we may have seen a very large death toll

[Tampa DMB Fan]

Thanks for everyone welcoming me to the forum. I've learned more in the last few days on here than I have in my lifetime watching The Weather Channel or my local Mets. Of course I take all of this with a grain of salt but it's still fun to read. Locally I tend to watch Denis Phillips.

[Frank2]

Again, when Gustav was named AccuWeather had it going right up Biscayne Boulevard (Miami), so, it seems they are back to the Rita forecasting method - I have family in Pennsylvania, but, I'm starting to wonder if it's the water up there that makes their forecasters them think the way they do...

LOL

[gatorcane]

Remember the GFS was progging that Gustav "decouple" into two areas with the low-level surface circulation heading WSW to W but weak.

I wonder if that is what we are seeing with the shear?

It would be amazing if the GFS nailed it.

[Frank2]

Good observation - wouldn't that be somethin'?

As Andy would say, "I'd be a flat dog!"

LOL

[gatorcane]

LOL

what great news if the GFS does verify in forecasting this decoupling. I hope it is right

[Scorpion]

:uarrow: LOL

what great news if the GFS does verify in forecasting this decoupling. I hope it is right

Yes, the shear is just ripping it apart. It should dissipate later today.

[gboudx]

Remember the GFS was progging that Gustav "decouple" into two areas with the low-level surface circulation heading WSW to W but weak.

I wonder if that is what we are seeing with the shear?

It would be amazing if the GFS nailed it.

jeff mentioned this WSW movement in his morning update today as well. His update is posted in the Pro Met Question and Analysis thread on the TA forum.

[Stormcenter]

:uarrow: LOL

what great news if the GFS does verify in forecasting this decoupling. I hope it is right

Yes, the shear is just ripping it apart. It should dissipate later today.

I know your kidding but seriously it looks disorganized. I'm not
so sure the NHC forecasted this slow reorganization.

[Frank2]

Well, as Derek mentioned the system is looking more like a TD than a TS, so, we'll see, since it does show two distinct circulations at this time which is usually only seen in weak systems...

[stormy1970al]

New 2pm Advisory from the NHC

000
WTNT32 KNHC 271731
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
200 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2008

...GUSTAV GRADUALLY PULLING AWAY FROM HISPANIOLA...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC-HAITI BORDER WESTWARD TO LE MOLE ST NICHOLAS. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ARE IN EFFECT FOR
JAMAICA.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF
GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GRANMA.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF LAS
TUNAS AND HOLGUIN AND ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

INTERESTS IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF GUSTAV.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.4 WEST OR ABOUT 140
MILES...225 KM...WEST OF PORT-AU-PRINCE HAITI AND ABOUT 90 MILES...
145 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA.

GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR. A WEST TO
WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WITH A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...GUSTAV
SHOULD PASS BETWEEN JAMAICA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF CUBA ON
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE LEFT OF THE FORECAST
TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER OF GUSTAV VERY NEAR JAMAICA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST ONCE GUSTAV MOVES AWAY FROM
HAITI...AND THE STORM COULD REGAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH WITHIN THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.

GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO
12 INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA...EASTERN CUBA...JAMAICA...AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 25 INCHES
POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES CAN BE EXPECTED IN
AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA.

REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION...18.8 N...74.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH

[Frank2]

Wow - 60 - that's a stretch, though I guess their leaning on it getting better orgainzed later on - it isn't at present...

[kurtpage]

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST ONCE GUSTAV MOVES AWAY FROM
HAITI...AND THE STORM COULD REGAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH WITHIN THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO.

[jlauderdal]

Am I getting picked on because I do not see a major storm hitting Texas?

Yeah...THAT's the reason.

So you are picking on me?

no, you post something suspect you are going to hear about it, this is a discussion board, sometimes it isnt all touchy feely

[kurtpage]

Wow - 60 - that's a stretch, though I guess their leaning on it getting better orgainzed later on - it isn't at present...

I do not see them calling it that if the winds were not there....good grief.

[ConvergenceZone]

Okay, I'm so confused. We have some people saying that the storm is looking better organized and others saying that it's being ripped apart into nothing....Which one is it???

[Derek Ortt]

I do not see a center at that location, I see the center at 19.0N 74.1W on 1km visible imagery

[Brent]

:uarrow: LOL

what great news if the GFS does verify in forecasting this decoupling. I hope it is right

Yes, the shear is just ripping it apart. It should dissipate later today.

BTW, the NHC is predicting slow strengthening. At 11 they didn't predict a hurricane again til between 24 and 36 hours.

and they also said this:

THE LAST AERIAL
RECONNAISSANCE OBSERVATIONS IN THE STORM DID NOT ACTUALLY SUPPORT
AN INTENSITY OF 50 KT...BUT BASED ON THE TREND SEEN IN THE
SATELLITE PRESENTATION WE ASSUME THAT GUSTAV IS PROBABLY VERY NEAR
THAT INTENSITY BY NOW.