ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[Brent]

Is it just me or is Gustav really starting to grow in size and ramp up in organization?

It's not just you.

[gboudx]

The difference between the accuweather track and the NHC is huge. Like arguably outside the cone of error huge.

I would like to know the percentage of Accuweather's customers that have oil interests in the Gulf.

[Air Force Met]

Am I getting picked on because I do not see a major storm hitting Texas?

Yeah...THAT's the reason.

[Frank2]

More convection to the south and east, but, on the high-resolution visible, it seems the LLC and MLC are NE-SW (or SW-NE) of each other by about 100 miles - are any forecasters on here at the moment who would like to comment on that observation?

Frank

[Sirius LeWindy]

Am I getting picked on because I do not see a major storm hitting Texas?

Yeah...THAT's the reason.

So you are picking on me?

[HurricaneRobert]

Have they ever shifted the forecast track back to the west after it was going west, then east?

[teal61]

Impressive.

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... ive_0.html

Beauty is in the eye of the beholder.
I think it looks pretty ragged right now. IMHO

Actually it seems to be rebounding nicely now...

[HurricaneRobert]

Impressive.

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... ive_0.html

Beauty is in the eye of the beholder.
I think it looks pretty ragged right now. IMHO

Actually it seems to be rebounding nicely now...

I was hoping we had found its weakness

[gboudx]

Have they ever shifted the forecast track back to the west after it was going west, then east?

For Gustav specifically, or in general? In general, yes the track shifts back and forth all the time. For Gustav, I think it's been mostly west with the east move today.

[teal61]

Am I getting picked on because I do not see a major storm hitting Texas?

Yeah...THAT's the reason.

Yeah the thought of a major hurricane cruising up Galveston bay thrills us Texans.....

[haml8]

Accuweathers latest thoughts... NHC is still the main source..

The difference between the accuweather track and the NHC is huge. Like arguably outside the cone of error huge.

That is what I don't understand, how can the tracks, rely on the same models and indfo come up with such a varaition. IMHO it seems that it would lead to noone truly having a stong handle on it yet.

[Air Force Met]

Am I getting picked on because I do not see a major storm hitting Texas?

Yeah...THAT's the reason.

Yeah the thought of a major hurricane cruising up Galveston bay thrills us Texans.....

Yeah...the 40 straight days at 18-20 hrs each that I worked because of Katrina-Rita were wonderful. I think I would like a repeat.

[Derek Ortt]

More convection to the south and east, but, on the high-resolution visible, it seems the LLC and MLC are NE-SW (or SW-NE) of each other by about 100 miles - are any forecasters on here at the moment who would like to comment on that observation?

Frank

I also see a very poorly organized system at the moment

looks more like a developing TD than a nature TS right now

I also see another full days worth of rain for Haiti. I hope this is not as bad as the last hurricane to make landfall in Haiti, which was Flora in 1964

[Steve Cosby]

The difference between the accuweather track and the NHC is huge. Like arguably outside the cone of error huge.

I would like to know the percentage of Accuweather's customers that have oil interests in the Gulf.

All of them - we all buy oil.

[ColdFusion]

So you are picking on me?

A hurricane is approaching! Toughen up soldier!

[Wthrman13]

There is shear, yes, but as AFM mentioned, it's moderate at best, and I see expanding outflow on the north side. The overall upper-level environment is favorable for intensification. Not ideal, no, but still favorable. As for when it gets to the gulf, it's a tough call. The models are showing a tendency for UL troughiness and light to moderate shear in the gulf as Gustav approaches, but a lot of them don't have a good representation of the UL outflow, so it's hard to say how that will affect the system. Remember, forecasts of shear are notoriously difficult and unreliable. I agree with the NHC's conservative approach in the matter. I think it's pretty likely that we will at least have a major hurricane entering into the Gulf. What it does after that is obviously more uncertain, but I note that the GFDL and HWRF have both consistently forecasted strengthening in the Gulf, peaking in the central Gulf as a strong Cat 4 or 5 and then steady weakening approaching the north Gulf Coast.

[BigB0882]

I also see another full days worth of rain for Haiti. I hope this is not as bad as the last hurricane to make landfall in Haiti, which was Flora in 1964

Wow, I can't believe it has been that long for Haiti. I would think they would see hurricanes more often!

[gatorcane]

More convection to the south and east, but, on the high-resolution visible, it seems the LLC and MLC are NE-SW (or SW-NE) of each other by about 100 miles - are any forecasters on here at the moment who would like to comment on that observation?

Frank

I also see a very poorly organized system at the moment

looks more like a developing TD than a nature TS right now

I also see another full days worth of rain for Haiti. I hope this is not as bad as the last hurricane to make landfall in Haiti, which was Flora in 1964

Agreed its poorly organized.

[Frank2]

Thanks, Derek - yes, I agree that it's a big concern for Haiti at this time since they are possibly getting rainfall at rates that Melbourne had last week...

[vaffie]

Accuweathers latest thoughts... NHC is still the main source..

The difference between the accuweather track and the NHC is huge. Like arguably outside the cone of error huge.

That is what I don't understand, how can the tracks, rely on the same models and indfo come up with such a varaition. IMHO it seems that it would lead to noone truly having a stong handle on it yet.

They must be putting more weight in the UKMET, Canadian, and European global models. The NHC is leaning towards the GFDL, the HWRF, the GFS, and the NOGAPS. I am in favor of using the first group too. I think the second group will shift back west soon. We'll see. I've been wrong many many times before.