ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[tolakram]

Impressive.

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... ive_0.html

[Air Force Met]

its shear from the ULL that I mentioned would affect Gustav

It's doing a number on it right now.

The shear that is there...and its not much...maybe 10 kts (which is moderate...not enough to do a number on it)...is not from the upper low. Its more from the large anticyclone to its NW. If the upper low was gone...Gustav would still be getting sheared due to its position in relation to the high over the FL straights and Cuba.

If anything, the ULL is ventilating the NE quad.

[RL3AO]

RL3AO what is the difference between the picture you put up and the one previously put up a couple of posts ago by mattpetre?

That was a steering map, mine is a mid-level shear map.

[Just Joshing You]

Is it just me or is Gustav really starting to grow in size and ramp up in organization?

[Sirius LeWindy]

If the steering product is right, the ridge has really build westward and lends some credence to the CMC and Euro... just wait and see for now though.

. . . I was going to post this image . . . signs pointing west and weaker.

[ColdFusion]

Impressive.

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... ive_0.html

It does appear to be coming back together. You can see a nice rotation under the higher clouds.

[haml8]

RL3AO what is the difference between the picture you put up and the one previously put up a couple of posts ago by mattpetre?

That was a steering map, mine is a mid-level shear map.

Thanks! Can you also tell me the difference between the 500mb charts and the 850mb charts? Sorry so many questions.

[Air Force Met]

. . . I was going to post this image . . . signs pointing west and weaker.

I see how you can get west...but certainly not weaker.

[Frank2]

I'm typo-prone today - sorry about that...

LOL

[Sirius LeWindy]

. . . I was going to post this image . . . signs pointing west and weaker.

I see how you can get west...but certainly not weaker.

If it hits the Yucatan . . . then weaker . . .

[ColdFusion]

. . . I was going to post this image . . . signs pointing west and weaker.

I am quite sure the NHC has taken this into consideration which is why a WNW movement is in the forecast for the next 24-48 hours. This map does not show what steering will be after that time, when the NW movement is forecast to begin.

[Frank2]

Just a word to the many guests here who live on the Gulf Coast (and to the oil speculators, too) - the situation as many of us here have mentioned is very "up in the air", so, all we can do is wait and pray - per what was mentioned in the 11 a.m. NHC Tropical Cyclone Discussion, their forecasting skill that far ahead (beyond 3 days) is not very good (as in all of meteorology), and, that also explains why the cone is so large (actually, larger than in other cases)...

I hope admin doesn't mind this comment, but, thought it should be mentioned, since our many "pro and con" comments might confuse some who are visiting today...

Frank

[Air Force Met]

. . . I was going to post this image . . . signs pointing west and weaker.

I see how you can get west...but certainly not weaker.

If it hits the Yucatan . . . then weaker . . .

Yeah...after it gets a whole lot stronger. OF course...it will get weaker when it hits the northern gulf coast too. That's a given: weaker when it hits land.

Its also a given that these steering currents will change from what they currently are...which is what that map shows...and if it hits the Yuk...it will only be a grazing blow. Those currents won't stay like that and it won't drive into the heart of the Yuk.

There are a lot of track uncertainties...but I don't think that is one of them.

[haml8]

Accuweathers latest thoughts... NHC is still the main source..




The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.[/quote]

[Stormcenter]

Impressive.

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... ive_0.html

Beauty is in the eye of the beholder.
I think it looks pretty ragged right now. IMHO

[Sabanic]

Just a word to the many guests here who live on the Gulf Coast (and to the oil speculators, too) - the situation as many of us here have mentioned is very "up in the air", so, all we can do is wait and pray - per what was mentioned in the 11 a.m. NHC Tropical Cyclone Discussion, their skill that far ahead (beyond 3 days) is not very good (as in all of meteorology), and, also explains why the cone is so large (actually, larger than in other cases)...

I hope admin doesn't mind this comment, but, thought it should be mentioned, since our many "pro and con" comments might confuse some who are visiting today...

Frank

Good post Frank. Many would read the posts here and be totally confused. Speculation on the board here is great but for any newbies they really need to pay strict attention to the NHC for forecasts and information.

[Cape Verde]

. . . I was going to post this image . . . signs pointing west and weaker.

I see how you can get west...but certainly not weaker.

If it hits the Yucatan . . . then weaker . . .

Well, I see the consensus here is that it will hit somewhere between Mexico and Florida.

It's hard to argue against that, I suppose.

[Frank2]

Yes, but, the other day AccuWeather had Gustav going up Biscayne Boulevard (Miami), so...

[Sirius LeWindy]

Yeah...after it gets a whole lot stronger. OF course...it will get weaker when it hits the northern gulf coast too. That's a given: weaker when it hits land.

Its also a given that these steering currents will change from what they currently are...which is what that map shows...and if it hits the Yuk...it will only be a grazing blow. Those currents won't stay like that and it won't drive into the heart of the Yuk.

There are a lot of track uncertainties...but I don't think that is one of them.[/quote]

Am I getting picked on because I do not see a major storm hitting Texas?

[Cape Verde]

Accuweathers latest thoughts... NHC is still the main source..

The difference between the accuweather track and the NHC is huge. Like arguably outside the cone of error huge.