ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[weatherguru18]

I don't know if anyone mentioned this already, but Gov. Jindal held a press conference yesterday to outline what's being set up in the next few days in preps for Gustav..... he stated evacuations and contraflow out of NOLA could start as soon as Friday depending on the track and intensity.

The same holds true for Texas. Emergency contingency plans were activated yesterday as of 4pm.

[cycloneye]

http://markalot.org/gearth.html

Definitly a more west track commensing.

[HarlequinBoy]

Has Mississippi started any preps yet?

[KWT]

ColdFusion, well the next 12-18hrs is probably the time needed for this system to reorganise however thats very interesting to watch in its own right.

[oyster_reef]

I don't know if anyone mentioned this already, but Gov. Jindal held a press conference yesterday to outline what's being set up in the next few days in preps for Gustav..... he stated evacuations and contraflow out of NOLA could start as soon as Friday depending on the track and intensity.

The same holds true for Texas. Emergency contingency plans were activated yesterday as of 4pm.

MS coast seems to handle these situations best. Least amount of panic and complaining after the fact. You gotta feel proud of those people.

[jasons2k]

I am with Jason in thinking that the trough seen by the GFS is being overestimated and the Ridge building over the SE US is not being accounted for enough on days 5/6. It's a long ways out, but I'm afraid the trough will be of much less significance than some might think right now. Look for models to shift back quite a bit to the West by Friday. Just my guess based on the general pattern I've seen with ridges over the last two weeks.

Just to clarify, the comments posted were an exerpt from Jeff Linder's morning email (he's a pro-met with the HCFCD who occasionally posts in our analysis forum).

I'm keeping my own long-term progonsitications to myself for now, but as a hint, I did buy water last night.

[ColdFusion]

must wait and see... we will know a Whole Lot by Fridat morning.

Agreed. I too have the thought that Friday will be the "OH S**T!" day for some unlucky folks.

[KWT]

Yep cycloneye as I thought looks like its bent back to the west, should go pretty much right dow nthe middle of the gap between Jamaica and Cuba, so land interaction may not be huge if it heads close to due west from here on out.

In the enxt 12hrs it moves away from land interaction, then into the highest heat content in the basin...

[Sanibel]

Latest GFS is south of Cuba and through the channel into the Gulf.


Here we go.

[jinftl]

Being close to the center black line on the NHC track is probably the best thing an area can have going for it now...no doubt the track will shift many times in the coming days....

[drezee]

TCHP is unbeleivable right now!!

[gatorcane]

Latest GFS is south of Cuba and through the channel into the Gulf.


Here we go.

GFS moves a weak Gustav (1009) to the northern tip of the Yucatan at 90 hours.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I'm not saying this will hit New Orleans, but this is important:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080823/ap_ ... g_the_past

A more recent analysis shows the start of 84 of 156 projects was delayed — 15 of them by six months or more. Meanwhile, a critical analysis of what it would take to build even stronger protection — 500-year-type levees — was supposed to be done last December but remains unfinished.

Another opportunity for setbacks: The corps says it will need more than 100 million cubic yards of clay and dirt to build up levees — enough to fill the Louisiana Superdome 20 times.

Also on the corps' drawing board are gigantic pumps capable of pushing more than 20,000 cubic feet of water per second. For comparison, the biggest pumps in New Orleans move about 6,000 cfs every second and they're among the most impressive in the nation.

That's not all: The corps has awarded The Shaw Group a $695 million contract to build a massive barrier against storm surge in the Industrial Canal. It's touted as one of the biggest public works projects ever performed by the agency.

Publicly, the corps says the work is on budget and will be done by 2011.

"The progress I see each time I visit is really remarkable. The region has a better hurricane and storm damage reduction system in place than ever before in its history — and it will continue to get better," Lt. Gen. Robert Van Antwerp, the corps chief, wrote on his blog in April.

[Janie2006]

I don't know if anyone mentioned this already, but Gov. Jindal held a press conference yesterday to outline what's being set up in the next few days in preps for Gustav..... he stated evacuations and contraflow out of NOLA could start as soon as Friday depending on the track and intensity.

The same holds true for Texas. Emergency contingency plans were activated yesterday as of 4pm.

MS coast seems to handle these situations best. Least amount of panic and complaining after the fact. You gotta feel proud of those people.

[dark humor]

After Camille and Katrina, we're used to the idea that we'll get wiped out every few years.

[/dark humor]

[ConvergenceZone]

Latest GFS is south of Cuba and through the channel into the Gulf.


Here we go.

GFS moves a weak Gustav (1009) to the northern tip of the Yucatan at 90 hours.

I think GFS is on crack if it thinks this is going to be weak entering the GULF..

[Ivanhater]

Well Im still giving this another day before I get to worried...but if this time tomorrow still has it in north central gulf..preps must be taken

[Frank2]

I was almost tempted to start a new topic for this, but, it's important to mention the NE wind flow ahead of Gustav:

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

since that is mentioned in the TCD as northerly shear, that does not make for the most favorable environment...

[Sabanic]

Well Im still giving this another day before I get to worried...but if this time tomorrow still has it in north central gulf..preps must be taken

Agree with ya there IH

[KWT]

Yep hjeat content is very high drezee, easily high enough for a top end hurricane but whether conditions will allow for it is another matter, odds on though we get a major hurricane out of this, I think this will start RI this time tomorrow.

[Stormcenter]

Well Im still giving this another day before I get to worried...but if this time tomorrow still has it in north central gulf..preps must be taken

I would be concerned if lived anywhere along the Gulf coast. Anyway I'm not sure
if it was mentioned already but the NHC in their 11pm discussion mentioned
SW shear (again) in the GOM and said that Gustav could between a Cat.1-3 hurricane.
I didn't sense the catastrophic (Cat.4-5)type of tone in their discussion like
yesterday. Maybe he won't be as bad as first thought wherever he ends up.