ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

GFDL and HWRF are the more reliable models, I'd pay closest
attention to them but remember they may shift directions
or locations several times in a 5 day forecast.

If I remember correctly these two models still had Fay headed toward the NE GOM near Cedar Key to Tampa long after the GFS had swung to a SW FL landfall. Could they be over estimating ridges??

Possibly...but I'm not sure...very confusing.

[KWT]

Yep Brent looks like thats a new convective blow up and I think these will increase in strength and size soon as it pulls away from Haiti and the inflow has a nice big stretch of high heat content waters.

[Sanibel]

With weak steering synoptics it would be wise to allow Gus to establish a track for a few days before determining a north Gulf landfall location.

[jlauderdal]

I cant remember seeing such a huge cone of error in any other storm..It covers all the states bordering the GOM..

short memory, fay covered 11 states last week at one point

[THead]

Sorry if this is a silly question, but what is this HWRF model? Is it new or something that has changed names recently? I've been around here for years and for some reason I don't recall ever hearing/seeing it before!

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv_us_loop.html

EDIT- Trough has not arrived yet.

[jlauderdal]

Sorry if this is a silly question, but what is this HWRF model? Is it new or something that has changed names recently? I've been around here for years and for some reason I don't recall ever hearing/seeing it before!

google.com or try this http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_ ... ting_model

[KWT]

Well once it gets away from Haiti Sanibel I think broader synoptic patterns will decide where this system goes in the end I guess, gustav seems to be under the influence of the upper high now though as it appears to be tracking nearly west now looking at the high resolution sat imagery.

[RL3AO]

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv_us.html

Can someone help me find the trough Looks really complicated.

Its not there yet.

[RL3AO]

Sorry if this is a silly question, but what is this HWRF model? Is it new or something that has changed names recently? I've been around here for years and for some reason I don't recall ever hearing/seeing it before!

Its the NHCs new model thats supposed to replace the GFDL.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv_us.html

Can someone help me find the trough Looks really complicated.

Its not there yet.

Thanks! So later on in a day or two a new trough arrives from the west or north
and that will be the one to watch?

[haml8]

I'm afraid I'll have to give up on the chances of Gustav being carried WNW toward south TX. The ridge just doesn't look like it'll be strong enough. I sure hope it doesn't make a direct hit on New Orleans or Mississippi (where my mother lives). Just got their house rebuilt a few years ago after Katrina.

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Wxman I'm thinking we will see some more East shifts or some kind of hook NNE or even NE in the long-term track....

This WV loop to me is showing pretty much SW to NE winds across the GOM thanks in part to Fay's circulation. The ridging over the FL straits seems to *very* slowly moving east to me.

I can't see Gustav plowing NW through this wind pattern over the GOM. My thinking is this could very well be an East GOM problem.

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif

What do you think?

Keep wishing Gator, and I am sure it will head your way! j/k

GO TEBOW, GO GATORS

[Sanibel]

18.8N-74.2W

Should get over all water over the afternoon. I don't see any indication of GFS influences.

[crazycajuncane]

Gustav is the talk of work today. I was telling everyone this morning... don't get excited about that line, because it will change. It sure has changed! I didn't think we'd see that much of a shift to the east. Are there more expected shifts east? What are the chances it trends back west? This question is for the mets.

[KWT]

Yep Sanibel it should be away from the western tip of Haiti within the enxt 4hrs or so and once that happens the convection should strengthen steadily and the northern quadrant should improve as it moves away from the shear and also the northern part doesn't have winds coming from land like it has now.

[ColdFusion]

I'm thinking today will be a rather slow day in terms of posting about any new shattering developments. Seems like today is just a day of watching a torn-up TS try to get its act together while it slowly drifts to the west, and probably some slight east-west tail wagging of the models and 5 day cone, which is pretty much meaningless this far out since the average error rate is 200+ miles.

[AMeyerRN]

I don't know if anyone mentioned this already, but Gov. Jindal held a press conference yesterday to outline what's being set up in the next few days in preps for Gustav..... he stated evacuations and contraflow out of NOLA could start as soon as Friday depending on the track and intensity.

[mattpetre]

I am with Jason in thinking that the trough seen by the GFS is being overestimated and the Ridge building over the SE US is not being accounted for enough on days 5/6. It's a long ways out, but I'm afraid the trough will be of much less significance than some might think right now. Look for models to shift back quite a bit to the West by Friday. Just my guess based on the general pattern I've seen with ridges over the last two weeks.

[oyster_reef]

Gustav is the talk of work today. I was telling everyone this morning... don't get excited about that line, because it will change. It sure has changed! I didn't think we'd see that much of a shift to the east. Are there more expected shifts east? What are the chances it trends back west? This question is for the mets.

must wait and see... we will know a Whole Lot by Fridat morning.

[tolakram]

http://markalot.org/gearth.html