ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[rockyman]

Maybe so, but possibly one more coming into Dauphin Island will be all it can handle. Rockyman can vouch for that. It will become sadly a thing of the past

Yep...that HWRF is mega-scary...that track at that strength would probably cut the Island into several pieces...it would definitely wipe out the entire West End, kill tourism for years, wipe out the tax base, and probably lead to dissolution of the Town government.

[Blown Away]

This is bothersome for those of us along the central and NE Gulf Coast, a shift in the models to the east..........

http://i.flhurricane.com/images/2008/clark7latest.png

No affence to anybody but I rather GUSTAV hit and slam florida then have ECONIME STUFFER AND HAVE HIGHER GAS PRISES WHEN THEY ARE NOW ALREADY DROPPING...

PS.dose anyone agree on that fact the they would rather see gustav hit florida then anywhere else??????

Cross city is a bit inland but it is pretty much swamp. There are some small resort weekend get away type spots in the Big Bend coast, they will be underwater for sure. Appalachicola and Cedar Key are the 2 main points in the Big Bend.

Years ago, there used to be an area in the big bend, around Cross City, that was pretty much nothing but swamp and palmettos. I don't know if its still that way or not. If so, that'd be about the best place in the NE Gulf for it to make landfall. But, obviously, any sane person would pray for the thing to be sheared to death.

[Javlin]

PS.dose anyone agree on that fact the they would rather see gustav hit florida then anywhere else??????

There are some places that obviously would cause less damage than others. If it does get Cat 3 or beyond, obviously a hit from New Orleans over to Biloxi would possibly put the nail in the coffin for some communities that are just now beginning to get on their feet. Rather than wish it to one area, I'm more on the side of wishing that it not get to Cat 3 strength, I think a Cat 1, weak Cat 2 in most places would be tolerable in even the worst hit Katrina zones. Not that it would be GREAT, but wouldnt be a economy killer.

and that is the thought a Cat 1 or 2 you can suffice,not a breaker,pain in butt yea.The casinos are on land and some of them the lower floors are kinda open?I do mot play anywhere as much since Katrina

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I agree with the NHC track and the discussion. It is too early
to tell what impacts a trough might have, because it is still
3-5 days out...unless someone has a water vapor link
and can point out a strong trough arriving sooner/later than
forecasted.

[LaBreeze]

It's looking better for us here in Vermilion Parish (SouthWest/SouthCentral) LA. At least we'll probably be on the "good" side - the western side, that is if no further changes occur. How likely would the models shift? Does anyone think that they will shift back to west a great deal? Comments.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Might not be the best track in regards to effects on population, but in my unofficial and amateur capacity and a casual observer, I can see nothing wrong with the official forecast track.

[ColdFusion]

It's looking better for us here in Vermilion Parish (SouthWest/SouthCentral) LA. At least we'll probably be on the "good" side - the western side, that is if no further changes occur. How likely would the models shift? Does anyone think that they will shift back to west a great deal? Comments.

Realistically, I think a good 48 hours before anyone from Houston to Pensacola should feel better about anything. No one, including the NHC feels very good about the forecast beyond 3 days.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

It's looking better for us here in Vermilion Parish (SouthWest/SouthCentral) LA. At least we'll probably be on the "good" side - the western side, that is if no further changes occur. How likely would the models shift? Does anyone think that they will shift back to west a great deal? Comments.

Depends hugely on the timing of the trough forecasted to influence Gustav in 3 days. A
sooner arriving trough would put the storm east of you and be good news for you,
but a later arriving trough would be scary for you.

[wxman57]

I'm afraid I'll have to give up on the chances of Gustav being carried WNW toward south TX. The ridge just doesn't look like it'll be strong enough. I sure hope it doesn't make a direct hit on New Orleans or Mississippi (where my mother lives). Just got their house rebuilt a few years ago after Katrina.

[haml8]

http://www.cbc.ca/world/story/2008/08/27/gustav.html

death toll up to 11

Here are some images to go with the news... man I feel for them

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26414223/displaymode/1107/s/2/framenumber/1/

[Praxus]

Interesting if not very detailed recent article on hurricane readiness in New Orleans.

http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/N21495124.htm

[Agua]

No affence to anybody but I rather GUSTAV hit and slam florida then have ECONIME STUFFER AND HAVE HIGHER GAS PRISES WHEN THEY ARE NOW ALREADY DROPPING...

PS.dose anyone agree on that fact the they would rather see gustav hit florida then anywhere else??????

Cross city is a bit inland but it is pretty much swamp. There are some small resort weekend get away type spots in the Big Bend coast, they will be underwater for sure. Appalachicola and Cedar Key are the 2 main points in the Big Bend.

Years ago, there used to be an area in the big bend, around Cross City, that was pretty much nothing but swamp and palmettos. I don't know if its still that way or not. If so, that'd be about the best place in the NE Gulf for it to make landfall. But, obviously, any sane person would pray for the thing to be sheared to death.

Yeah, I was talking about west of Cross City. May not really be the "big bend"; not sure where that is considered to begin and end.

[KWT]

Well the track seems decent but then again its always difficult to know with these systems hence why we enjoy tracking them.

The thing we should really watch is the strength forecasts, the NHC has this at 100kts but if this gets even 24hrs where conditions are optimal then this will easily get beyond 100kts IMO in the NW Caribbean and maybe southern gulf.

[ROCK]

I'm afraid I'll have to give up on the chances of Gustav being carried WNW toward south TX. The ridge just doesn't look like it'll be strong enough. I sure hope it doesn't make a direct hit on New Orleans or Mississippi (where my mother lives). Just got their house rebuilt a few years ago after Katrina.

I was hoping it would be going to MX as originally thought........

[gatorcane]

I'm afraid I'll have to give up on the chances of Gustav being carried WNW toward south TX. The ridge just doesn't look like it'll be strong enough. I sure hope it doesn't make a direct hit on New Orleans or Mississippi (where my mother lives). Just got their house rebuilt a few years ago after Katrina.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Wxman I'm thinking we will see some more East shifts or some kind of hook NNE or even NE in the long-term track....

This WV loop to me is showing pretty much SW to NE winds across the GOM thanks in part to Fay's circulation. The ridging over the FL straits seems to *very* slowly moving east to me.

I can't see Gustav plowing NW through this wind pattern over the GOM. My thinking is this could very well be an East GOM problem.

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif

What do you think?

[Ed Mahmoud]

Bastardi says Carla to Katrina as the cone, with the center GLS to LCH (Rita). Sub 920 mb. Remembering JB's "Houston, we have a problem" thread before Rita, and throwing in known bias, shifting it another 100 miles or so East says Morgan City/Patterson area, where I have boarded many a boat and helicopter back in my days reducing America's dependence on foreign oil. I still work reducing America's dependence on foreign oil, but out of an office building near the Galleria in Houston, with occasional trips to the fields in North Texas, Arkansas and South Louisiana.


BTW, Morgan City is hugely unofficial, and did I mention I am an amateur?

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

http://www.cbc.ca/world/story/2008/08/27/gustav.html

death toll up to 11

Here are some images to go with the news... man I feel for them

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26414223/displaymode/1107/s/2/framenumber/1/

It is very tragic that these tropical systems have been hitting the most vulnerable islands
of the Caribbean. The steering currents have made it really miserable for those people
so far this season. Prayers with those people.

[Sanibel]

If your refering to derek's post I believe he means that piece of cuba that sticks out to the south. The most southern point of cuba.

Cabo Cruz, Cuba. The same place Fay and Dennis came near to or crossed.


Yeah Dean, this time you have something more to watch. The trend and average synoptic development is starting to look closer to you. But the slower Gus goes the more he could change. Look at Fay and what happened to it after 4 days of being right on the bead for hurricane here.

As for GFS it could be smart to calculate the model cluster and GFS' outlier track. It could mean a slightly right track under Cuba or it could mean GFS is in error. As much as some want to be the first to see a radical shift in track towards Florida I think it would be reasonable to assume that the High that is keeping Gus pinned down is also the same one that will block a right outlier. As for Dean, though, this right trend combined with an approaching trough is good reason to watch.

[ROCK]

Bastardi says Carla to Katrina as the cone, with the center GLS to LCH (Rita). Sub 920 mb. Remembering JB's "Houston, we have a problem" thread before Rita, and throwing in known bias, shifting it another 100 miles or so East says Morgan City/Patterson area, where I have boarded many a boat and helicopter back in my days reducing America's dependence on foreign oil. I still work reducing America's dependence on foreign oil, but out of an office building near the Galleria in Houston, with occasional trips to the fields in North Texas, Arkansas and South Louisiana.


BTW, Morgan City is hugely unofficial, and did I mention I am an amateur?

JB is biased? Oh come on!!! You know he loves New York City b/c of its asethetic scenery.....

[ColdFusion]

I'm afraid I'll have to give up on the chances of Gustav being carried WNW toward south TX. The ridge just doesn't look like it'll be strong enough. I sure hope it doesn't make a direct hit on New Orleans or Mississippi (where my mother lives). Just got their house rebuilt a few years ago after Katrina.

So are you about to sound the alarm to evacuate the central gulf / la coast oil rigs? That is your job isnt it?