ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[SouthFLTropics]

JMO...but I have to think that the slower Gus moves the more east that cone may shift over time...

SFT

I am not quite sure I understand. If I am remembering correctly, this storm has been predicted to be a very slow mover. Why is it that all of the sudden slow movement means a more Easterly track? As far as I can tell, this thing is on track as far as speed. If slow movement means an Easterly track then why wasn't the reflected in the beginning?

It is more or less on track, and if you look at the forecast track just released, it is expected to continue to move very little today. The slow movement IS forecast, and does not mean a wholesale shift in the track is coming.

Let me clarify my position...

If it maintains a slower track over the long term then it could mean a shift east I would think because that would allow more time for the ridge to erode. Sorry I didn't clarify that before. Trust me, I hope I'm wrong because I don't want this guy in my neck of the woods.

SFT

[ColdFusion]

Trust me, I hope I'm wrong because I don't want this guy in my neck of the woods.
SFT

Just got off the phone with my dad, he was pulling into a parking garage at a Biloxi casino. Said might as well get in one good day of gambling in case the worst does happen. Wonder how well the new casinos would hold up against a Cat 3 surge....IF IF IF that happened.

[cycloneye]

For the members who may think Gustav is not organizing,here is a part of the 11 AM Discussion.

RECENT HIGH-RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND RADAR
OBSERVATIONS FROM GRAN PIEDRA CUBA SUGGEST THAT THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED.

http://asp1.sbs.ohio-state.edu/tropical ... 82714.disc

[Derek Ortt]

http://www.cbc.ca/world/story/2008/08/27/gustav.html

death toll up to 11

[KWT]

Well its stioll early days CZ, if this heads further north then progged then we will see more interaction with Cuba then is forecasted however the small core is a good thing for Gustav.

Think its probably holding steady at 50kts right now, convection bursting and this should slowly get better developed as it moves away from Haiti and the inflow has a nice strech of water instead.

[Sabanic]

Trust me, I hope I'm wrong because I don't want this guy in my neck of the woods.
SFT

Just got off the phone with my dad, he was pulling into a parking garage at a Biloxi casino. Said might as well get in one good day of gambling in case the worst does happen. Wonder how well the new casinos would hold up against a Cat 3 surge....IF IF IF that happened.

Probably not well at all if it were anything comparible to Katrina

[ConvergenceZone]

perhaps I was wrong about a major...the latest discussion mentions more shear in the gulf and that this may be a cat 1, cat 2 or a cat 3, that it has equal chance of all when it hits land....... the forecasted wind speed seems to be dropping on almost every advisory.... Little do I know,

Perhaps we may be off the "major" hook afterall, crossing my fingers....

[Sabanic]

perhaps I was wrong about a major...the latest discussion mentions more shear in the gulf and that this may be a cat 1, cat 2 or a cat 3, that it has equal chance of all when it hits land....... the forecasted wind speed seems to be dropping on almost every advisory.... Little do I know,

Perhaps we may be off the "major" hook afterall, crossing my fingers....

I know that when Frederic came in 1979 (I was 19) he only had sustained winds of 110-120, and it devastated the entire city of Mobile and Dauphin Island. It was the worst to ever hit our area. Came right up the MS/AL line.

[Praxus]

I can't imagine what it would be like to live in New Orleans and look at the latest NHC track. Luckily its still a few days away and very likely to change substantially.

[Derek Ortt]

remember, GFS does not have the storm. Therefore, the outflow pattern is garbage

[jlauderdal]

Trust me, I hope I'm wrong because I don't want this guy in my neck of the woods.
SFT

Just got off the phone with my dad, he was pulling into a parking garage at a Biloxi casino. Said might as well get in one good day of gambling in case the worst does happen. Wonder how well the new casinos would hold up against a Cat 3 surge....IF IF IF that happened.

your dad is the man, gambling first, wobble watching second

[ConvergenceZone]

perhaps I was wrong about a major...the latest discussion mentions more shear in the gulf and that this may be a cat 1, cat 2 or a cat 3, that it has equal chance of all when it hits land....... the forecasted wind speed seems to be dropping on almost every advisory.... Little do I know,

Perhaps we may be off the "major" hook afterall, crossing my fingers....

I know that when Frederic came in 1979 (I was 19) he only had sustained winds of 110-120, and it devastated the entire city of Mobile and Dauphin Island. It was the worst to ever hit our area. Came right up the MS/AL line.

well, times are much more different than 1979. Better warning systems, better drainage, more properly built buildings etc.....

[Derek Ortt]

also, SHIPS has more shear over it now than it ever does in the GOM. I am not ready to subscribe to the shear theory yet

[Noles2006]

Yeah... my parents were supposed to be in Biloxi from Friday to Monday (leaving Monday around noon)...

[KWT]

Yeah the GFS does want to bring in some shear but I don't think that will happen, the percentage tables for windspeed tend to bust in the NW Caribbean quite often under favorable conditions, just can't deal with RI which is a real possiblity with this one.

Derek, yep I think the shear is probably the highest it will be for Gustav for a while at least.

[Sabanic]

perhaps I was wrong about a major...the latest discussion mentions more shear in the gulf and that this may be a cat 1, cat 2 or a cat 3, that it has equal chance of all when it hits land....... the forecasted wind speed seems to be dropping on almost every advisory.... Little do I know,

Perhaps we may be off the "major" hook afterall, crossing my fingers....

I know that when Frederic came in 1979 (I was 19) he only had sustained winds of 110-120, and it devastated the entire city of Mobile and Dauphin Island. It was the worst to ever hit our area. Came right up the MS/AL line.

well, times are much more different than 1979. Better warning systems, better drainage, more properly built buildings etc.....

Maybe so, but possibly one more coming into Dauphin Island will be all it can handle. Rockyman can vouch for that. It will become sadly a thing of the past

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

This is bothersome for those of us along the central and NE Gulf Coast, a shift in the models to the east..........

http://i.flhurricane.com/images/2008/clark7latest.png

No affence to anybody but I rather GUSTAV hit and slam florida then have ECONIME STUFFER AND HAVE HIGHER GAS PRISES WHEN THEY ARE NOW ALREADY DROPPING...

PS.dose anyone agree on that fact the they would rather see gustav hit florida then anywhere else??????

I'd rather Gustav get ripped apart by massive shear to a depression, but unfortunately
it does not look like that will happen.

I see it more as, my girlfriend (this is made up, I don't have any romance in my life) and I are walking through the mall, and some crazy person
with a baseball bat comes to commit a robbery, I would rather get beaten and robbed
then see it happen to my would-be girlfriend. But nobody wants to get beaten and robbed,
so it is a tough choice. ASSUME that I am a karate expert and my girlfriend is not.

In other words, I'd rather see Gustav hit somewhere that is LESS VULNERABLE than New Orleans,
but ANY hit is always bad no matter where.


But then again, NO ONE controls the robber, the robber goes based on his/her "steering" currents
of desperation, etc.

[TideJoe]

http://www.cbc.ca/world/story/2008/08/27/gustav.html

death toll up to 11

He's on the fast track to early retirement.

[KWT]

A major strike on N.O would be real bad, surge would be bad but unlike Katrina if this would get a direct strike you'd likely get higher winds than from Katrina, esp if it does come in as a strong major hurricane, even a cat-3 hit would have gusts upto cat-4 strength on the skyscrapers.

As for Haiti, there will be more deaths there yet as the rain water floods the rives as it comes down the mountions.

[jlauderdal]

I can't imagine what it would be like to live in New Orleans and look at the latest NHC track. Luckily its still a few days away and very likely to change substantially.

lets not imagine, if i was in NOLA and had lived there awhile I would know that based on the track error this far out i was in good shape, then I would look at this from the world authority on hurricanes:

ONE SHOULD
NOT READ MUCH INTO SUCH SHIFTS OF THE FORECAST TRACK SINCE THE
TYPICAL ERROR OF A 5-DAY PREDICTION IS OVER 300 MILES.


Then i would think to myself, damn I am glad its heading right at me this far out because my chances are better than my neighbors a few hundred miles either side of me. I would also feel good knowing that I have my hurricane plan in place because I have been spanked in the past and hopefully the govt has done what they can to give my location a decent chance from surge, etc..

Then I would go about my bidnezz whatever that may be and watch and wait and be ready to take any actions that are required because I was prepared and had a plan.