ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[ConvergenceZone]

I don't see how anyone can't see this becoming a major now that it's moving AWAY from land...Even if it were a wave right now, the conditions suppose to be EXCEPTIONAL for explosive development in the carib....

[mutley]

11:00 A.M. GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...

[Dean4Storms]

This is bothersome for those of us along the central and NE Gulf Coast, a shift in the models to the east..........

http://i.flhurricane.com/images/2008/clark7latest.png

[SouthFLTropics]

Something else that needs to be considered here in my opinion...What effect is the ULL to Gustav's east having on old Gustav.

If I'm not mistaken, and Derek please feel free to correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe Derek said during Fay that we have got to start doing a better job forecasting the impacts of these ULL's to the tracks and intensities of the storms. That is not an exact quote, just paraphrasing. I would go back and find the quote but I'd have to track through over 600 Fay pages and I don't have the time for that.

SFT

[mutley]

NHC track shifted east a bit at 11:00

[gatorcane]

NHC track shifted east a bit at 11:00

no surprise at all and is what I would have done also.

[Blown Away]

NHC track shifted east a bit at 11:00

no surprise at all and is what I would have done also.

W FL Peninsula back in the error cone.

[cycloneye]

[gatorcane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Yeah was about to say that...West Coast of FL Peninsula back in the cone already. I still think some more east shifts are in store for the next several advisories....

Also lower FL Keys in the cone...

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I'm in the cone now. But it appears a strong
ridge east of Florida should keep this away and cause a greater
threat to New Orleans????

[SouthFLTropics]

NHC track shifted east a bit at 11:00

no surprise at all and is what I would have done also.

W FL Peninsula back in the error cone.

JMO...but I have to think that the slower Gus moves the more east that cone may shift over time...

SFT

[bayoubebe]

Yikes, not liking that latest track.
I wish we could see into the future, and know exactly where this will be a few days from now. Who knows how many shifts we'll see between now and then.

[carversteve]

Gus looking kinda sick right now.....must not have digested land that well!

[tgenius]

Ok just for clarification, there is no way that this pulls a Fay/Ernesto, especially with the east shifts right?

[N2Storms]

[quote="mutley"]NHC track shifted east a bit at 11:00[/quote]



Ever so slightly and it is still looking like a Louisiana landfall, God forbid New Orleans...everyone agreed yesterday that the models will flip flop back and forth this far out...tomorrow they'll probably be shifted ever so slightly back west...what this means to me is that barring some unforseen dramatic atmospheric changes or changes in the structure of the cyclone itself, Gustav is still more likely to directly impact some portion of the Louisiana coast and if that pans out then coastal residents as far eastward as Mobile (FL / Al border) could see significant impacts

[mutley]

I'm in the cone now. But it appears a strong
ridge east of Florida should keep this away and cause a greater
threat to New Orleans????

I'm guessing that the evolution of that ridge over the next few days, is somewhat uncertain.

[BigB0882]

JMO...but I have to think that the slower Gus moves the more east that cone may shift over time...

SFT

I am not quite sure I understand. If I am remembering correctly, this storm has been predicted to be a very slow mover. Why is it that all of the sudden slow movement means a more Easterly track? As far as I can tell, this thing is on track as far as speed. If slow movement means an Easterly track then why wasn't the reflected in the beginning?

[ConvergenceZone]

This IS going to be a MAJOR hurricane no matter what way you slice it.... Nothing that's going to keep that from happening now.........

[ColdFusion]

JMO...but I have to think that the slower Gus moves the more east that cone may shift over time...

SFT

I am not quite sure I understand. If I am remembering correctly, this storm has been predicted to be a very slow mover. Why is it that all of the sudden slow movement means a more Easterly track? As far as I can tell, this thing is on track as far as speed. If slow movement means an Easterly track then why wasn't the reflected in the beginning?

It is more or less on track, and if you look at the forecast track just released, it is expected to continue to move very little today. The slow movement IS forecast, and does not mean a wholesale shift in the track is coming.

[DeanDaDream]

Gus looking kinda sick right now.....must not have digested land that well!

(FROM THE NHC)

RECENT HIGH-RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND RADAR
OBSERVATIONS FROM GRAN PIEDRA CUBA SUGGEST THAT THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED