ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[gatorcane]

I hope some of the "its going to sink NOLA" talk calms down

But that leads to people getting complacient and that is not good.

Agreed but its far too uncertain to make calls on landfall at this point given the spread in model guidance and Gustav's slow movement at this time which may mean up to 7 days before any impacts to the CONUS, if any.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

Just an opinion but Gustav has moved very little in the past couple of days and the less it moves the more easterly the track will eventually be because time will be given for the trough Stewart said would be coming to break down the western end of the ridge. If I had to guess I would predict an eventaul track up the the extreme eastern GOM with all of western florida and the panhandle being at greatest risk.

[NativeFloridaGirl]

I think we are all focusing a little too much on the models. Models can be wrong and the best thing to do is look at the cone and if you are in the cone start preparing. Don't panic but take the precautions and keep tuned to your local mets and the NHC. I think people depend on the models too much and don't realize that they will change off and on until the very end. If your area is in the cone then be prepared.

Uh...you do realize the cone is BASED on the models? There would be no cone if we did not have the constant twitches left and right of the models. The models are just as important as the NHC cone.

I second this thought. Note to visitors and guests: This is a Gustav model thread, not a general discussion thread. We are here primarily to discuss model runs and their implications, and I for one can't get enough of them! Please enjoy our discussions, and check out the general discussion thread if we seem too overly involved in all the projections.
Karen

Karen this is the general discussion thread. I've made the same darn mistake before too!

~Beth~

[Just Joshing You]

Just because Gustav has a really tight core now doesn't mean he will in the central Gulf ( i.e. remember Wilma with her pinhole of an eye, and then her very large eye during landfall over Florida). Also, a weaker Gustav now could mean a longer period of time until he reaches his peak intensity, possibly leading to a stronger hurricane at landfall. Remember hurricanes typically do not maintain category 5 status for long periods of time. So we should hope he peaks much earlier before landfall. And this is not a forecast for a category 5 hurricane, just stating that IF it does become one, that it happens much earlier in Gustav's lifetime.

I was actually just thinking something of that sort. I woke up, read a lot of discussion about how this is a godsend, but in reality, there's still PLENTY of juice for it to E.I or R.I into a CAT 5 monster in 24 hours.. it doesn't take a storm too long to ramp up in this type of environment. Look at how Wilma looked in this general vicinity before undergoing R.I? This storm still looks good enough for pretty much anything to happen.

[RainWind]

NHC track has it moving slowly for the next 12 hours or so, right? They seem to have a pretty good handle on Gustav so far. RW

[ciclonson]

wouldn't it have to go due north to go over extreme eastern cuba? What would make it do that?

[bayoubebe]

I hope some of the "its going to sink NOLA" talk calms down

But that leads to people getting complacient and that is not good.

Agreed but its far too uncertain to make calls on landfall at this point given the spread in model guidance and Gustav's slow movement at this time which may mean up to 7 days before any impacts to the CONUS, if any.

You can't blame fellow New Orleanians for feeling some panic.
I agree about the uncertainty for landfall at this point, but I disagree with thinking this "is not going to be a Major" at THIS point. I'd rather have people get prepared and expect the worst, while maintaining a sense of calmness.
Gosh, Gator, I hope you are right about it not becoming a Major, but I'm not letting my guard down at this time.

[Stormcenter]

NHC track has it moving slowly for the next 12 hours or so, right? They seem to have a pretty good handle on Gustav so far. RW

Well if you compared the forecase track from yesterday to this morning's you;ll notice they've push back the date he enters the GOM. I think the very slow motion yesterday was not expected.

[x-y-no]

500mb height at Kingston 12Z is 5850m, wind NNW. That's down 20m from 6Z, but still indicates the ridge is extending south just west of Jamaica.

Let's see if this is enough backing off to allow a little more west movement. I think we're still looking at slower west progress than the forecast, at least for today.

[DESTRUCTION5]

I know many(derek) hate these posted but I think were in a rare area for Climtology..Look at the years of them storms...Including the poof Queen of 2000.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... ml#a_topad

PS..Gatorcane please don't wet yourself..LOL

[Janie2006]

I'm in general agreement...far too early to say with much certainty where Gustav will end up, especially when talking about a possible TX/LA landfall. For that matter, you can't rule out a possible landfall further east either. Complacency in this kind of situation is your enemy.

[gatorcane]

500mb height at Kingston 12Z is 5850m, wind NNW. That's down 20m from 6Z, but still indicates the ridge is extending south just west of Jamaica.

Let's see if this is enough backing off to allow a little more west movement. I think we're still looking at slower west progress than the forecast, at least for today.

x-y-no thanks for the update.

Kudos to you for calling this slow movement. You were the first and backed it up with evidence.

I think some had the impression it would bend WNW and W rather steadily and quickly but its turning out you are correct.

[ExBailbonds]

NHC track has it moving slowly for the next 12 hours or so, right? They seem to have a pretty good handle on Gustav so far. RW

If your refering to derek's post I believe he means that piece of cuba that sticks out to the south. The most southern point of cuba.

[carversteve]

x-y-no....what is your thought on how weak he looks right now? And in your opinion does Gus still have a GOM track as a major?

[linkerweather]

I think we are all focusing a little too much on the models. Models can be wrong and the best thing to do is look at the cone and if you are in the cone start preparing. Don't panic but take the precautions and keep tuned to your local mets and the NHC. I think people depend on the models too much and don't realize that they will change off and on until the very end. If your area is in the cone then be prepared.

Uh...you do realize the cone is BASED on the models? There would be no cone if we did not have the constant twitches left and right of the models. The models are just as important as the NHC cone.

This actually isn't true and I realize that this is a general discussion but the CONE is not a forecast or based on any forecast at all. The CONE is the average HISTORICAL error of the NHC at various time periods. Ever notice that the cone at 5 days is always the exact same width regardless of the confidence in the models or the forecast?
This is the reason the NHC has new graphical products to display probabilities of certain wind speeds.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Not a forecast, but central Lousiana to the Florida Big Bend should be getting ready.


Maybe all the Northern Gulf Coasters will luck out, and Gustav will never recover from Haiti. It does look pretty chewed up right now...

Ed, go ahead and sound the all clear for Texas ......I know you want to....its eating you up.....

Well, since I'm only an amateur, not a pro-met, the policy of Storm2K will not permit me to sound an official 'all clear' for Texas.

[tolakram]

I know many(derek) hate these posted but I think were in a rare area for Climtology..Look at the years of them storms...Including the poof Queen of 2000.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... ml#a_topad

PS..Gatorcane please don't wet yourself..LOL

How many storms is that? How many total storms are we talking about? I'm trying to say nicely that climatology is fairly meaningless especially when you consider all it would take is one storm to radically change the 'odds'. We're working with a very limited data set.

[DESTRUCTION5]

I know many(derek) hate these posted but I think were in a rare area for Climtology..Look at the years of them storms...Including the poof Queen of 2000.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... ml#a_topad

PS..Gatorcane please don't wet yourself..LOL

How many storms is that? How many total storms are we talking about? I'm trying to say nicely that climatology is fairly meaningless especially when you consider all it would take is one storm to radically change the 'odds'. We're working with a very limited data set.

Thus i said RARE AREA.

[gatorcane]

I think its truly amazing how the big island of Hispaniola can have large impacts on systems not only with how it weakens them but how it causes erratic or unforseen movements of systems.

[oyster_reef]

I know many(derek) hate these posted but I think were in a rare area for Climtology..Look at the years of them storms...Including the poof Queen of 2000.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... ml#a_topad

PS..Gatorcane please don't wet yourself..LOL

How many storms is that? How many total storms are we talking about? I'm trying to say nicely that climatology is fairly meaningless especially when you consider all it would take is one storm to radically change the 'odds'. We're working with a very limited data set.

Thus i said RARE AREA.

rare? we had a storm here last week!