ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[jenmrk]

I just can't understand how irresponsible the media can be, channel 3 news here in Pensacola this morning said its going to N.0.-it wasn't Christian Garman it was one of the news casters going to break, do they not realize that comments like that will cause people that are not paying much attention to tune out. I just took my son to the bus stop and one of my neighbors had no idea there was a storm and the other said oh its going to N.O no reason to be concerned! I just don't get people not paying attention. I am worried about a major hurricane and my Mother in law is calling asking me to bring a covered dish Monday to the cookout, she also is not concerned. I am not in panic mode, just surrounded by a bunch of people that have their heads in the sand. I just needed to vent and to say thank you to you all for all of he great information, the web site is such a wealth of information and very addicting.

Lol, thats channel 3...do they know how close New Orleans is to Pensacola? If the middle of the cone is heading for the cities of New Orleans, Biloxi, Mobile or Pensacola, all of those cities better look out

Thats exactly what I told my neighbors, also for now to ignore that line down the middle of the cone, it can be very misleading.

[ronjon]

I mentioned the GFS run from last night where it showed a break down in ridging over the Eastern GOM over the next 48 to 96 hrs. It still appears to be an outlier though the 06Z HWRF has shifted to Mobile and the 06Z GFDL shifted east to NOLA. Gus' interaction with the mountains of Haiti and ridging building west of of Gus will lead to some slow motion W-NW south of Cuba over the next few days. Right now, Gus looks like a central to eastern GOM threat. I'm not sure how much further east the track will shift but that is the trend we might expect over the next several model runs due to the breakdown in ridging ala GFS. I'm not sure I buy off the the fast motion of the GFDL into the northern gulf coast based on the 500 mb pattern from GFS. If anything, I think there is some potential for erratic motion and perhaps stalling in the GOM in the 4-5 day timeframe.

[cycloneye]

27/1145 UTC 18.8N 73.8W T3.0/3.5 GUSTAV -- Atlantic Ocean

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

[CYCLONE MIKE]

From the NWS in Little Rock this morning...
ON MONDAY...STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION OVER MAINLY WESTERN
AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF AR...AS THE BOUNDARY HAS WEAKENED...THE
SURFACE RIDGE HAS BUILT IN FROM THE NE...AND GUSTAV IS STILL TOO FAR
OVER THE GULF TO MAKE AN IMPACT. TUESDAY...A STRONG UPPER TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE PLAINS...AS THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS OVER THE EAST.
THE SURFACE RIDGE IS RETREATING TO THE EAST...AND GUSTAV COMES
CLOSER TO THE GULF COAST.

What I find interesting is the trough is only in the plains at that time with the high starting to move east. I don't know if the hard right hook that happens so often will come to fruition or not. Maybe someone else can elaborate on this a little more. Just say things stay just as they are in this discussion what would Gustav do? Continue NW, N, or NE?

[Blown Away]

Is Gus moving or is the convection popping on the W side of the LLC giving the impression of W movement?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[dwg71]

I think NHC will shift track ever so slightly east on next run, maybe just east of the gfdl line. jmho.

[jlauderdal]

I'm not on my usual computer and don't have access to all my hurricane links--if anyone could pass along the link to the steering current images I would be grateful.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html

gotta love that uw tropical page

[carversteve]

Is Gus moving or is the convection popping on the W side of the LLC giving the impression of W movement?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

To my untrained and unofficial eye>>>>is Gus moving west or at least wnw?? And by the way....he is looking good!!

[KWT]

No real reason to shift the track to the east of GFDL Dwg71 given the current model forecasts suggest GFDL is pretty much in the middle of the model progs. However I agree maybe a slight shift in track and aiming right at N.O.

Anyway nice big convective burst over the center, its a sign of favorable conditions that will allow Gustav to really strengthen over the next few days, but right now land interaction is still preventing any further strengthening from occuring.

[dwg71]

No real reason to shift the track to the east of GFDL Dwg71 given the current model forecasts suggest GFDL is pretty much in the middle of the model progs. However I agree maybe a slight shift in track and aiming right at N.O.

Anyway nice big convective burst over the center, its a sign of favorable conditions that will allow Gustav to really strengthen over the next few days, but right now land interaction is still preventing any further strengthening from occuring.

It will be close to GFDL either way by just a hair, but it will shift east.

[KWT]

Yeah I agree this does look like being the 'big one' as they say for the USA, even taking the usually fairly conservative NHC forecasts we are going to have a major hurricane hitting somewhere along the gulf coast and odds are this will come in as the strongest hurricane for the states since possibly Wilma unless something drastic changes.

[THead]

I'm not on my usual computer and don't have access to all my hurricane links--if anyone could pass along the link to the steering current images I would be grateful.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html

gotta love that uw tropical page

Yes, Bucky has many talents.......Go Big Red!!

Re Gustav, this is going to be a long, scary few days ahead. Will be glued to storm2k for the duration. Good luck, and be safe everyone!!

[stormy1970al]

I just can't understand how irresponsible the media can be, channel 3 news here in Pensacola this morning said its going to N.0.-it wasn't Christian Garman it was one of the news casters going to break, do they not realize that comments like that will cause people that are not paying much attention to tune out. I just took my son to the bus stop and one of my neighbors had no idea there was a storm and the other said oh its going to N.O no reason to be concerned! I just don't get people not paying attention. I am worried about a major hurricane and my Mother in law is calling asking me to bring a covered dish Monday to the cookout, she also is not concerned. I am not in panic mode, just surrounded by a bunch of people that have their heads in the sand. I just needed to vent and to say thank you to you all for all of he great information, the web site is such a wealth of information and very addicting.

I don't listen to channel 3 too often but I stay tuned to WKRG and NBC. They are making a lot of sense from their news forecast. I posted it from last night where on NBC out of Mobile made the comment to keep calm and start planning on hurricane preparation plan. Friday will tell us more on what is going to happen but we are in the cone. Even if they say NO or MS might get hit we need to be prepared but we are not only on the East Side of a Storm but I don't know how many times I have watched a storm get very close to hitting the Mobile area and it jogs to East and spares us....Ivan, Dennis, Opal. All three storms comes to mind.

What I am worried about is that I have to work this weekend. This is my weekend to open. My husband is also working his second job this weekend. It is Bass Pro Shops Grand Opening Weekend this week. So both of us will be working. I work in retail so if we go under warnings I am stuck at the store and will be there until we can leave since I pretty much run the front end where people check out. What I am worried about is if we do go under a Warning/Watch when will it be. Will we see watches go up on Saturday or Sunday? When do they think it will hit if it does hit this area?

[Ivanhater]

Yeah I agree this does look like being the 'big one' as they say for the USA, even taking the usually fairly conservative NHC forecasts we are going to have a major hurricane hitting somewhere along the gulf coast and odds are this will come in as the strongest hurricane for the states since possibly Wilma unless something drastic changes.

Have you ever chased a Hurricane in the US KWT?

[KWT]

I've not done no chasing ivanhater, not got the resources or time to be honest though one day it'd be good just have a little taster of a lower end hurricane, not sure I'd want to be going into the core of a cat-4/5 to be honest!

Models do seem to be coming into increasingly good agreement about a track into LA now it seems.

[Stormcenter]

I've not done no chasing ivanhater, not got the resources or time to be honest though one day it'd be good just have a little taster of a lower end hurricane, not sure I'd want to be going into the core of a cat-4/5 to be honest!

Models do seem to be coming into increasingly good agreement about a track into LA now it seems.

Do they really?

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html

[stormy1970al]

I think we are all focusing a little too much on the models. Models can be wrong and the best thing to do is look at the cone and if you are in the cone start preparing. Don't panic but take the precautions and keep tuned to your local mets and the NHC. I think people depend on the models too much and don't realize that they will change off and on until the very end. If your area is in the cone then be prepared.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Not a forecast, but central Lousiana to the Florida Big Bend should be getting ready.


Maybe all the Northern Gulf Coasters will luck out, and Gustav will never recover from Haiti. It does look pretty chewed up right now...

[KWT]

Stormcenter, well maybe a better word is to say central Gulf, the GFS raw run and the Nogaps and its version of GFDL do aim further east but they've been east of the guidence pretty much the whole time.

stormy1970al, indeed most of the gulf still needs to watch this one, though right now the central gulf needs to watch the closest.

[Stormcenter]

Not a forecast, but central Lousiana to the Florida Big Bend should be getting ready.


Maybe all the Northern Gulf Coasters will luck out, and Gustav will never recover from Haiti. It does look pretty chewed up right now...

That is what I'm hoping for. Haiti may have done everyone a HUGE favor at
their expense.