ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[attallaman]

Posted from Bob Brecks blog, NOLA weather forecaster

""However, tonight's run of our VIPIR model (yes we pay Baron's Services to use it) indicates Gustav will make a northward turn on Friday across Cuba and head up the west coast of Florida. To me. our key day will be Friday. By then Gustav will either be heading where NHC puts it (still not in Gulf) and by then we'll need to start making decisions. IF VIPIR is correct, then the danger will be more to our east. The 3rd scenario could take Gustav farther to the south into the Yucatan.""

http://bobbreck.blogspot.com/

personnally not a big fan of viper but like some models every now and then it gets one right...

I remember watching Bob Breck on WVUE 8 in NOLA a few years back. I believe he received a lot of flack from his Katrina forecasts but I see he's changed his hair style quite a bit since his days at WVUE. I wonder if he's still wearing those wide, loud neckties that he made famous while working at WVUE?

[Johnny]

Did any of you Texans happen to catch JB's 10:30 post? Almost a repeat of what he said during Rita....almost.

[Sanibel]

Interesting GFS cuts across east Cuba, passes west of Key West, passes 150 miles west of us and on up towards Alabama.

[HouTXmetro]

Interesting GFS cuts across east Cuba, passes west of Key West, passes 150 miles west of us and on up towards Alabama.

Has the GFS been dead wrong ona system in recent history? I have a hard time going against the GFS and EURO. What is the latest EURO saying?

[JTE50]

To whoever asked, I'm plotting these using Google Earth from coordinates given by the NHC.



If you have the google earth plugin installed you can also view this track here:

http://markalot.org/gearth.html

I notice its now offshore. That would explain the new blow-up on the north side now.

How do you get the lat/long on the google earth map? I downloaded the plug in but don't see lat/long lines. Thanks!

[vbhoutex]

Any reports of death on Haiti? If not I expect them soon.

Unfortunately, yes...

"Hurricane Gustav slammed into Haiti, killing at least five as it lashed the desperately poor Caribbean nation with powerful winds and heavy rain"
http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5gbZ ... MvY-d6nbxg

I heard/read somewhere that there were 50 deaths due to a landslide. Unfortunately I can't provide the verification for this.

[baitism]

Heavy convection refiring around the center...

[MWatkins]

Looks like the center is working off of the coast based on the latest from Cuban radar...

http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB ... AXw01a.gif

Or at least it is getting very close...

MW

[haml8]

Did any of you Texans happen to catch JB's 10:30 post? Almost a repeat of what he said during Rita....almost.

Can you post your understanding of it here? or a link please?

[Texas Snowman]

JB thinks for now that Houston or Galveston will be closer to Gustav's landfall than NOLA will be.

[Duddy]

Did any of you Texans happen to catch JB's 10:30 post? Almost a repeat of what he said during Rita....almost.

I didn't catch it, what did he say?

[HouTXmetro]

Well if Gustav is atleast 50 miles East of Houston it will not be too bad in Houston proper. However, I'm still leaning for NOLA East.

[RL3AO]

How do you get the lat/long on the google earth map? I downloaded the plug in but don't see lat/long lines. Thanks!

Ctrl + L

[amanda]

Posted from Bob Brecks blog, NOLA weather forecaster

""However, tonight's run of our VIPIR model (yes we pay Baron's Services to use it) indicates Gustav will make a northward turn on Friday across Cuba and head up the west coast of Florida. To me. our key day will be Friday. By then Gustav will either be heading where NHC puts it (still not in Gulf) and by then we'll need to start making decisions. IF VIPIR is correct, then the danger will be more to our east. The 3rd scenario could take Gustav farther to the south into the Yucatan.""

http://bobbreck.blogspot.com/

personnally not a big fan of viper but like some models every now and then it gets one right...

i don't know enough to be a fan of viper or not, but i think it predicted charley's path pretty well in 2004. also, i remember seeing a meteorologist showing the viper model of fay, which predicted a southern fl landfall quite similar to the one that materialized. it also predicted that fay would stall off the east fl coast and then turn back west.

[HarlequinBoy]

Well, as it appears now, IF this is a system where New Orleans has to evacuate it is going to be one of those evacuations where you "GO EAST." For those in New Orleans, you know what I'm talking about---it's usually--"GO WEST!" Seems it will be different this time IF we have to evacuate at all.

I would just go north?

[Wx_Warrior]

Metro...EURO updates @ 2am central time but the last run had corpus...

I like JB (hence the avatar-maybe time to change) but he also said Fay was East Coast and had Gustavo splitting Florida last than 24 hours ago.

[Stormcenter]

Well if Gustav is atleast 50 miles East of Houston it will not be too bad in Houston proper. However, I'm still leaning for NOLA East.

Keep on hanging on HouTXmetro. We all still have time to change our
outlooks. Right now I say he goes either east (Fl Panhandle) or west (Middle-Upper TX) of N.O.

[bayoubebe]

Posted from Bob Brecks blog, NOLA weather forecaster

""However, tonight's run of our VIPIR model (yes we pay Baron's Services to use it) indicates Gustav will make a northward turn on Friday across Cuba and head up the west coast of Florida. To me. our key day will be Friday. By then Gustav will either be heading where NHC puts it (still not in Gulf) and by then we'll need to start making decisions. IF VIPIR is correct, then the danger will be more to our east. The 3rd scenario could take Gustav farther to the south into the Yucatan.""

http://bobbreck.blogspot.com/

personnally not a big fan of viper but like some models every now and then it gets one right...

i don't know enough to be a fan of viper or not, but i think it predicted charley's path pretty well in 2004. also, i remember seeing a meteorologist showing the viper model of fay, which predicted a southern fl landfall quite similar to the one that materialized. it also predicted that fay would stall off the east fl coast and then turn back west.

It disappointingly doesn't seem to be that accurate. I had high hopes for VIPIR when it first came out, but it seems hit and miss, and IIRC, for the times I do pay attention to it.....mostly miss.

With all due respect to Bob Breck, I haven't been able to trust in what he predicts ever since he blew his forecast with some of the canes. He was a mess with Katrina.
JMO of course.

[alan1961]

Think he's lost some punch on the last update on sat..NHC as downgraded gustav to cat1 landfall on Haiti...wouldn't be at all surprised to see Gustav get downgraded to a TS after Haiti or possibly before even..JMO

Yea, they just mentioned on TV that it appears to be weakening temporarily. I don't think it will weaken to a TS though, perhaps just a mid cat 1 hurricane, or low cat 1 if it hits too much land......hard to say..

well looks like the NHC have him as a tropical storm coming off of Haiti

[soonertwister]

I haven't posted for a while even though TS Fay did a minor mayhem job on FL including a cousin whose house was flooded.

Gustav is starting to worry me a lot from the track forecasts. Not very much east or west means NOLA or Houston could be threatened, and neither is a scenario that is at all attractive.

I think Gustav would need to go well east or west of track not to significantly impact gulf oil rigs, so we may see an energy spike big time soon. I'm curious why the NHC thinks that Gustav won't strengthen above 110 Kt from 72 to 120 hours at this time of year. Shear?

The latest track has Gustav not significantly being impacted my land mass anywhere before the Gulf. If they turn it a little right, NOLA better not be stupid, and just go ahead and order a mandatory evac at 72 hours out. Better safe than sorry.

Also, the latest track has Gustav going right over Little Cayman. I feel for those folks right now.