ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[jlauderdal]

Yea, lets stop speculating. It's obviously of french origin, anyways.

Does anyone know of a website that has the model runs on it for someone to view? I have to wait for the models to be pasted on the model thread. I want to be able to understand what you guys are talking about when you discuss the track.

actually my research shows its origin is Swedish, now lets get back on topic

here is a site for model runs:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

[cheezyWXguy]

It won't be strengthening anytime soon, that's for sure...

How will it not strengthen under minimal shear and very warm water?

I'm just judging by appearance...It don't look well on satellite

It looks just fine on satellite. A little sparse on deep convection in the center at this time, but outflow is exceptional and convection is popping all over the cdo. Dmax will help a lot tonight, and a hurricane is likely tomorrow.

[Ed Mahmoud]

It won't be strengthening anytime soon, that's for sure...

How will it not strengthen under minimal shear and very warm water?

I'm just judging by appearance...It don't look well on satellite

I think it is feeling downsloping (warming and drying) air from Hispaniola. Note storms are firing as the air on the NE side of Gustav hits the mountains, meaning the air is losing moisture, then it comes down the other side, meaning lower dewpoint air for Gustav's Western side.

[attallaman]

Could Gustav pose a threat to the MS Gulf Coast down the road?

[expat2carib]

Hey Cycloneye, hope this feature will race quickly wnw today or at least tommorow if not... it could pose maybe troubles for us in the Leewards and you in PR during the next 4-5days ( hope i'm wrong, should it verifies first). Sat pics presentation is very seductive; let's see what really happens with this nice system...

What do you mean? Will it be racing back?

[tolakram]

[KWT]

It looks fine, remember its a 60mph tropical storm not a full blown cat-2/3 so its hardly going to look textbook at this stage. The thing to note is there is still fairly deep convection bursting over the center. I do think its starting to feel land interaction with Hispaniola but I still suspect its slowly strengthening at the moment even though the apperence isn't quite as good as it was before.

[Recurve]

Could Gustav pose a threat to the MS Gulf Coast down the road?

Climatology (what is typical to happen weather-wise) and the current model tracks say YES. Think about your preparations. You have plenty of time.

Not a forecast or prediction

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Could Gustav pose a threat to the MS Gulf Coast down the road?

Go back and read through the 50-60 pages on where everyone thinks it is going to make landfall Seriously though could be south tx all the way around towards fl peninsula. Still way too early to tell and not enough variables ironed out yet.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

If it follows the nhc black line in goes through the spine of Cuba., I don't expect much more then a 35 knot tropical storm or even a depression once it enters the gulf. I don't know where the 50 knots is coming from.

[ConvergenceZone]

It looks fine, remember its a 60mph tropical storm not a full blown cat-2/3 so its hardly going to look textbook at this stage. The thing to note is there is still fairly deep convection bursting over the center. I do think its starting to feel land interaction with Hispaniola but I still suspect its slowly strengthening at the moment even though the apperence isn't quite as good as it was before.

I do think it will strengthen, but probably won't gain hurricane status until sometime tomorrow....I think some people
believe it will reach that tonight, but I don't think it's going to strenghten near that fast...

[carversteve]

Excuse me? Stop putting words in my mouth(quote). I NEVER said or indicated that "ruining my holiday weekend was my ONLY care about Gustav." You don't know what you are talking about here. I am in the New Orleans area, does Katrina ring a bell? I know all too well about concerns with hurricanes. Being concerned about destruction and loss of life is a natural concern to me. It would be ignorant of me not to try and make a decision about cancelling a trip or not. That's called smart planning. I wouldn't want to put my children or anyone else in danger by putting them in the vicinity of a bad storm, did you ever think that may be a reason why I inquired?---

Sorry...really didn't mean to come off like that..and yes i do remember katrina..i went down to long beach mississippi with my church to help with clean up not long after she hit, and slept in the parking lot of a super market in tents. ..All i could say was WOW!!!

[jlauderdal]

Could Gustav pose a threat to the MS Gulf Coast down the road?

yes and alot more real estate than that is possible, stay tuned

[KWT]

Matt, 35kts is a tropical storm. Cuba really wouldn't hurt a system all that badly IMO IF it had favorable conditions aloft, as we saw with Fay as well, though much depends on whether the inner core remains, how strong it gets and various other factors.

[jenmrk]

wx_warrior you crack me up!

Just way too early to start pinpointing where Gustavo Mendoza will end up on the Gulf Coast. Opinions change on here like underwear.

You made me laugh so hard, for those of us that are in the "HURRICANE FOR DUMMIES" category that was a great stress breaker, we are hang on to every confusing word and try our best to explain to our families what we have little understanding of. My husband thinks I am nuts and that I have OCD for hurricanes! I just enjoy it here, you all are great and very helpful!


Now please keep it away from Pensacola!

[Evil Jeremy]

Call me insane, but I think the NOGAPS is right this time. In fact, Bermuda should be on the watch for a hurricane. I am very concerned for the island right now.

[pojo]

this question was posed earlier......

why did the crew climb up to 650mb?

Because they started flying the storm at 1000ft (invest) and soon realized the strength... they climbed up to 2500ft and that's where they received the 65kt gust..... for safety reasons they flew at 700mb.... the 650mb was recorded because they were climbing back to normal flight altitude to come back to Homestead for a routine problem.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Matt, 35kts is a tropical storm. Cuba really wouldn't hurt a system all that badly IMO IF it had favorable conditions aloft, as we saw with Fay as well, though much depends on whether the inner core remains, how strong it gets and various other factors.

I fixed that, also this will spend 3 days to fays 12 hours. Also this will go over high mountains.

[Stephanie]

this question was posed earlier......

why did the crew climb up to 650mb?

Because they started flying the storm at 1000ft (invest) and soon realized the strength... they climbed up to 2500ft and that's where they received the 65kt gust..... for safety reasons they flew at 700mb.... the 650mb was recorded because they were climbing back to normal flight altitude to come back to Homestead for a routine problem.

Thanks for the explanation, pojo.

[Over my head]

There's orange dots on the track in it's not too distant future. It looks like it's right before land but it's hard to tell from the storm2K image above where that begins. Either before or after...is that Hispanola? I can't see for the cone!