ATL HANNA: Extratropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

962
ABNT20 KNHC 232359
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT AUG 23 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM FAY...CENTERED INLAND OVER THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE ABOUT
35 MILES NORTHEAST OF PENSACOLA.

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING A LARGE BUT
DISORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT A BROAD SURFACE CIRCULATION COULD BE
FORMING. ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT
MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA. THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SQUALLY WEATHER OVER
PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD AND SOUTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
LOCATED ABOUT 800 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS HAS
DECREASED THIS EVENING. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE...BUT SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
DISTURBANCE IS STILL POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[cycloneye]

The 00:00 UTC Best Track for 95L.

AL, 95, 2008082400, , BEST, 0, 203N, 518W, 30, 1013, DB,

[RL3AO]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN AUG 24 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS WRITTEN ITS FINAL ADVISORY ON
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY...LOCATED INLAND OVER SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA.
SUBSEQUENT ADVISORIES ON FAY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER IN WASHINGTON DC.

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING A
LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15
MPH OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS WAVE WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SQUALLY WEATHER OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS...WINDWARD ISLANDS...AND THE NORTHERN COAST OF
VENEZUELA TODAY.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
REMAINS DISORGANIZED. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING
LESS CONDUCIVE...BUT SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS
STILL POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN AUG 24 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 51W/52W S OF 24N. AN INVERTED
V-SIGNATURE IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE LOW PRES
PREVIOUSLY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE HAS WEAKENED...BUT
CONVECTION HAS SLIGHTLY INCREASED E OF THE WAVE LINE. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 20N-24N BETWEEN 47W-56W...MORE
CONCENTRATED WITHIN 200 NM E OF THE NORTHERN END OF THE WAVE
AXIS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY BECOME LESS
CONDUCIVE...BUT SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS
STILL POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES W-NW
OR NW AT 10-15 KT.

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 241130
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN AUG 24 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER IS ISSUING PUBLIC
ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY...LOCATED ABOUT 55 MILES
NORTH OF MOBILE ALABAMA.

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM AS IT MOVES WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 10 TO 15 MPH OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS
WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SQUALLY WEATHER OVER PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...WINDWARD ISLANDS...THE NORTHERN COAST OF
VENEZUELA...BONAIRE...CURACAO...AND ARUBA...DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO.

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 525 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS IS ALSO PRODUCING A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE GRADUALLY
BECOMING LESS CONDUCIVE...BUT SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
DISTURBANCE IS STILL POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[cycloneye]

12:00 UTC Best track:

AL, 95, 2008082412, , BEST, 0, 215N, 550W, 25, 1012, DB,

[Sanibel]

95L is being mugged by Atlantic conditions.

[Clipper96]

It's being mugged by shear off 94.

[cpdaman]

being offered as a sacrifice to trough, turn north or die

[cpdaman]

this should be getting the axe soon, no? except for in JB's mind

[z-bail]

looks like a significant flare up at 19 / 52 this morning !! is that ex 95L ??

[O Town]

This is looking better this morning than it has in a day or 2.
But will it last?

[capepoint]

Looks they they (TPC) have it painted this afternoon as a yellow area for poss develop?

[cycloneye]

Interesting that they now have 95L much more south than when they had its last plot at 21n now at 18n.

[KWT]

Invest 95L shifted WAY south now around 18N, 53W I believe.
Convection is flaring in a big way down there and conditions don't look too bad that far south. Want to see whether it holds but the models are trying to develop this and I wouldn't be all that surprised if it does do something with this, though there does seem to be a decent weakness present for this to climb into IF it does decide to develop.

[HURAKAN]

[terrapintransit]

WOW...looks like it's coming together again! What are the model runs looking like with this? Still pegged as a fish??

[KWT]

Yep still going out to sea through a pretty large weakness, would have to not develop to miss it I think.

Note that the center of this system is further to the wes tof the deep convection but its looking better again.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I believe that this has a fair chance of becoming something over the next few days.

[cycloneye]

410
ABNT20 KNHC 252352
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM GUSTAV...LOCATED ABOUT 165 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PORT-AU-
PRINCE HAITI...AND THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER IS
ISSUING PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY...LOCATED OVER
EAST-CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONCENTRATED TODAY ABOUT
600 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AT IT MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHWESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON GUSTAV ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT32 AND
UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT2. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON GUSTAV ARE
ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT22 AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT2.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN