ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[AMeyerRN]

>>Being just days away from the 3rd Anniverary of Katrina, would be ugly to have a storm threatening the Gulf.

When I was a kid, it seems like there were at least a few Labor Day weekends with a real threat on the map. Maybe it's just faulty memory though.

Actually me and my dad were just having that same conversation about that SELA Labor Day threat...

I'm wondering about this too..... hubby and I take a fishing trip to Venice, LA every labor day weekend (Friday-Monday).... hoping we don't have to cancel.

[jinftl]

what is going to slow Gustav's forward speed down...he is moving along at a good clip and really isn't that far away from threatening Hispanola, Cuba, the Bahamas, and even Florida and the GoM.

Also, would Gustav gaining more latitude in the short term than expected...or moving faster than expected...have an impact down the road as to what will steer him?

[duris]

>>When I was a kid, it seems like there were at least a few Labor Day weekends with a real threat on the map. Maybe it's just faulty memory though.

Definitely not faulty. I remember the same thing. My dad always had to work downtown, so we would go stay at his office. My brother had more than one birthday cake there because of storm threats. And many cancelled Tulane games for the same reason.

Labor day is the closest holiday to the statisical peak of the season. Look back through history and you will see a bunch of "Labor Day Storm of 19_ _ " references.

One of the many things that stinks about growing older (but not up) is that hurricanes aren't an adventure anymore like when I was a kid, as I'm sure they weren't for our parents either. At seven years old, we thought Camille was fun because we got root beer and slept on mattresses piled in the middle room of the house, though the eye scared the stuffing out of me for some reason. Now I'm thinking plywood, contraflow, levees...

[D3m3NT3DVoRT3X]

Just looked at a cool website i dont know if everyone has gone to or knows about it http://myfoxhurricane.com they have everything layed on on one page kinda nifty .. anywho i hope this one isn't the Tampa Storm .. I Sure hope the rebel leaders haven't shut down the Tampa Defence Shield

[Lowpressure]

Was it me, or did I miss something. Recon seemed to be rather quick didn't it?

[jinftl]

i guess folks in haiti would like to see this move in and move out quickly....the set-up for a flooding event in the wake of fay is quite a scary prospect there.

Its not really moving all that faster then the current models estimate jinftl but its hard to call really right now. I'd say looking more and more likely this does make some kind of landfall over Haiti sometime tomorrow, exactly where is a big question however.

[KWT]

Yeah they were lowpressure, I'm not sure why, maybe they just weren't prepared for possibly a full blown hurricane who knows?

jinftl, indeed and they will be hoping for it to get out even if it stays at current strength, yet alone if it makes it upto hurricane like its increasingly looking like happening.

[Regit]

Can we get back to the topic at hand people? Thanks.

[pojo]

Was it me, or did I miss something. Recon seemed to be rather quick didn't it?

it was too quick....

[tgenius]

So is the general consensus of a shift west for the cone at 5pm advisory or will NHC leave as is waiting for model data for the new runs?

[Stratosphere747]

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
319 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2008

VALID 12Z THU AUG 28 2008 - 12Z MON SEP 01 2008

TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV...
THINK THE NORTHEASTERN SYSTEM THE MODELS SPIN UP IN THE 60S
LONGITUDE WELL TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF GUSTAV WILL HAVE LITTLE
IMPACT ON GUSTAVS FUTURE TRACK OTHER THAN LEADING TO SLOW
MOTION...WHICH WAS SEEN WITHIN THE MEAN LAYER WINDS OF THE 00Z
ECMWF WHICH ADVERTISED WEST-NORTHWEST STEERING OF 5 KNOTS NEAR THE
NHC TRACK. THIS CONTINUES TO BE SHOWN THE 12Z GUIDANCE SUITE...AS
THE GUIDANCE NOW LIES WEST OF THE NHC TRACK. DUE TO A LACK OF
SEPARATION BETWEEN GUSTAV AND THE SYSTEM IN THE ATLANTIC
SUBTROPICS EARLY IN THE PERIOD...CHOSE TO DEPICT THE SYSTEM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF GUSTAV AS A SURFACE TROUGH AFTER COORDINATION
WITH NHC/TPC. GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO EARLY NEXT WEEK...LURED INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO BY A MID-LEVEL LOW EXPECTED TO FORM NEAR THE GULF COAST.
FOR DETAILS ON GUSTAV OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS...SEE THE LATEST NHC
DISCUSSIONS/ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV.

ROTH

[storms in NC]

What a name. Pronunciation: \ˈgu̇s-ˌtäv\

[Praxus]

More and more consensus about an eventual Gulf track....hmmm. Are there any reasons (shear etc) to keep it from becoming a major if it does hit the gulf?

[KWT]

Given the model shifts tgenius I'd have thought they are going to have to shift the track somewhat to the west at least in the mid range given the way the models have shifted southwards, possibly showing a track over E.Cuba then entering the Caribbean sea again somewhat similar to what wxman57 said I'd guess.

[BOPPA]

OK - I have a question. Our local met just said that "if"
Gustav effected our area (Ft. Myers) it would be "next"
weekend (as in Spt. 6-7) Did I hear him correctly?

However, as it seems to stand right now it will be off
our coast and head toward the panhandle.

Thanks

[dwg71]

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/ ... nhanced+12

looked better 4 hours or so ago. From this site it appears very ragged.

[txag2005]

Hey everyone,

I haven't been following much over the last week and all of a sudden we have another storm looming over us. Any risk of a western Gulf (SW LA, SE TX) threat? I know its early but the models looks to be all over the place right now. Just curious if this is a storm that has any chance to come our way.

[jlauderdal]

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
319 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2008

VALID 12Z THU AUG 28 2008 - 12Z MON SEP 01 2008

TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV...
THINK THE NORTHEASTERN SYSTEM THE MODELS SPIN UP IN THE 60S
LONGITUDE WELL TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF GUSTAV WILL HAVE LITTLE
IMPACT ON GUSTAVS FUTURE TRACK OTHER THAN LEADING TO SLOW
MOTION...WHICH WAS SEEN WITHIN THE MEAN LAYER WINDS OF THE 00Z
ECMWF WHICH ADVERTISED WEST-NORTHWEST STEERING OF 5 KNOTS NEAR THE
NHC TRACK. THIS CONTINUES TO BE SHOWN THE 12Z GUIDANCE SUITE...AS
THE GUIDANCE NOW LIES WEST OF THE NHC TRACK. DUE TO A LACK OF
SEPARATION BETWEEN GUSTAV AND THE SYSTEM IN THE ATLANTIC
SUBTROPICS EARLY IN THE PERIOD...CHOSE TO DEPICT THE SYSTEM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF GUSTAV AS A SURFACE TROUGH AFTER COORDINATION
WITH NHC/TPC. GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO EARLY NEXT WEEK...LURED INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO BY A MID-LEVEL LOW EXPECTED TO FORM NEAR THE GULF COAST.
FOR DETAILS ON GUSTAV OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS...SEE THE LATEST NHC
DISCUSSIONS/ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV.

ROTH

that seems reasonable, still alot of questions though as to what heading its on as it passes "near the keys" and how far west it gets

[hiflyer]

NOAA49...the high altitude Gulfstream...not sked to fly until tomorrow afternoon...that data should help the models when they run starting Tues night late and then on Weds.

[Category 5]

I am glad that the east coast is safe again this year. That is from Ga up. But we sure could use the heavy rains

uhhhhhhhhhhhhhh....... Have you looked at a calendar?

Yeppers sure have. Aug 25 th and nothing in any way in the works. We have had a few not many after around the 20th of Sept. And to get a CV Storm would have to have one in the works and there is not. Plus we have the ridge over us and have had for the last few years. The last one to come here (Wilm, cape fear river) was Floyd. And there has been only 2-3 storms after Floyd up around Morehead City.
Now we might get a home maker but not a Cv storm

We have the entire month of September for something to happen, and that's the month most of the east coast storms occur.