ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[KWT]

Well recon fix should give us an idea about the short term motion soon, I think 305-310 looks a pretty good estimate heading close to SW Haiti.

From there is where the real interesting stuffd begins becuase small shifts in the track north or south may mean the difference between a TS or a cat-3/4 hurricane...

for now I see no reason why this won't continue to rapidly strengthen.

[Sanibel]

Reconnaissance headed back home. No NE quadrant reading. No return to eye for pressure drop.

[wxman57]

After going through all the 12Z model data and observing Gustav's current motion and forecast positions of the ridge to its north. I've concluded that the GFDL may be on the right track, generally, but I think it may be moving Gustav too slowly on Tue/Wed a bit. I think the GFS and Canadian are probably correct with their showing of the ridge over Florida and the Bahamas holding from now through Friday. Beyond then, the GFS indicates a weakness in the ridge across the central Gulf and a slight eastward movement of the 500mb ridge center to east of Florida.

This could allow Gustav to track across western Haiti tomorrow afternoon then turn west, crossing part of eastern Cuba (small part) then south of Cuba tracking west to about the western tip of Cuba (Friday). This is about 1-2 degrees north of my earlier track for that western motion. Because of the more northern location, I now think it's more likely that Gustav will find the weakness in the ridge across the central Gulf on Friday and begin turning northward into the Gulf near or just west of western Cuba.

By later on Saturday and on Sunday, GFS indicates a further slight breakdown of the ridge over Florida/Bahamas. This may allow Gustav to begin a NNE motion prior to landfall near Panama City, FL on Monday morning. Ivanhater, how do you feel about the name Gustav?

That's my best estimate so far. Given, quite a shift from hitting the central Yucatan and west across the BoC. But I call 'em as I see 'em, and Gustav may just be/get too far north to take the full west motion to the Yucatan.

Now I'm not at all confident of a landfall point being near Panama City. I just had to pick a track and that's it for now. Could be anywhere from LA to northern FL Peninsula, as AFM indicated. I'm pretty sure that this storm (hurricane) will be trouble.

[gatorcane]

Hey Wxman that is quite a shift right in your track guidance from this morning

[jinftl]

Gustav may be able to do in less than one day what Fay couldn't during her entire life...become a 'cane! Funny what developing over the open water will allow a storm to do.

[Ivanhater]

After going through all the 12Z model data and observing Gustav's current motion and forecast positions of the ridge to its north. I've concluded that the GFDL may be on the right track, generally, but I think it may be moving Gustav too slowly on Tue/Wed a bit. I think the GFS and Canadian are probably correct with their showing of the ridge over Florida and the Bahamas holding from now through Friday. Beyond then, the GFS indicates a weakness in the ridge across the central Gulf and a slight eastward movement of the 500mb ridge center to east of Florida.

This could allow Gustav to track across western Haiti tomorrow afternoon then turn west, crossing part of eastern Cuba (small part) then south of Cuba tracking west to about the western tip of Cuba (Friday). This is about 1-2 degrees north of my earlier track for that western motion. Because of the more northern location, I now think it's more likely that Gustav will find the weakness in the ridge across the central Gulf on Friday and begin turning northward into the Gulf near or just west of western Cuba.

By later on Saturday and on Sunday, GFS indicates a further slight breakdown of the ridge over Florida/Bahamas. This may allow Gustav to begin a NNE motion prior to landfall near Panama City, FL on Monday morning. Ivanhater, how do you feel about the name Gustav?

That's my best estimate so far. Given, quite a shift from hitting the central Yucatan and west across the BoC. But I call 'em as I see 'em, and Gustav may just be/get too far north to take the full west motion to the Yucatan.

Now I'm not at all confident of a landfall point being near Panama City. I just had to pick a track and that's it for now. Could be anywhere from LA to northern FL Peninsula, as AFM indicated. I'm pretty sure that this storm (hurricane) will be trouble.

Wxman!! I would hope you would be the one to give me some hope ..I guess the good thing to note is it seems that none of the pros are very confident so that is a glimmer of hope

[cycloneye]

Good track analysis 57.I have a question about what is your intensity forecast?

[cpdaman]

WXMAN 57, good forecast and i completely agree with it, although that is probably not a good thing for your confidence lol

[Air Force Met]

Hey Wxman that is quite a shift right in your track guidance from this morning

Yeah...and in the next couple of days...it will be time to gas up before it goes up.

[Noles2006]

After going through all the 12Z model data and observing Gustav's current motion and forecast positions of the ridge to its north. I've concluded that the GFDL may be on the right track, generally, but I think it may be moving Gustav too slowly on Tue/Wed a bit. I think the GFS and Canadian are probably correct with their showing of the ridge over Florida and the Bahamas holding from now through Friday. Beyond then, the GFS indicates a weakness in the ridge across the central Gulf and a slight eastward movement of the 500mb ridge center to east of Florida.

This could allow Gustav to track across western Haiti tomorrow afternoon then turn west, crossing part of eastern Cuba (small part) then south of Cuba tracking west to about the western tip of Cuba (Friday). This is about 1-2 degrees north of my earlier track for that western motion. Because of the more northern location, I now think it's more likely that Gustav will find the weakness in the ridge across the central Gulf on Friday and begin turning northward into the Gulf near or just west of western Cuba.

By later on Saturday and on Sunday, GFS indicates a further slight breakdown of the ridge over Florida/Bahamas. This may allow Gustav to begin a NNE motion prior to landfall near Panama City, FL on Monday morning. Ivanhater, how do you feel about the name Gustav?

That's my best estimate so far. Given, quite a shift from hitting the central Yucatan and west across the BoC. But I call 'em as I see 'em, and Gustav may just be/get too far north to take the full west motion to the Yucatan.

Now I'm not at all confident of a landfall point being near Panama City. I just had to pick a track and that's it for now. Could be anywhere from LA to northern FL Peninsula, as AFM indicated. I'm pretty sure that this storm (hurricane) will be trouble.

I really don't know how this area could take another beating like we did with Fay. The rivers are still rising around here... the trees are weak... luckily, the coast did not experience any surge with Fay... but a Dennis-type storm (but closer) would be devastating to this area...

[haml8]

Allright, guess the concensus is that Texas is out of the picutre... sweet

(he says sardonically through clenched teeth

As usual everyone on the gulf coast still needs to keep an eye on it. Despite the gut feeling based on expensive models the local media in Houston here are already leading with Gustav as the top story

[KWT]

Very interesting track and also not all that far different from the model guidence such as the ECM, etc, in terms of track anyway and I think the NHC will come round to your way of thinking as well.

Should be noted that west of 73W the mountios in the SW of Haiti aren't nearly as tall as they are further east, still near enough 1000 feet but not quite as dangeorus to a well developed system like this one probably will be as the heights Fay had to travel over.

[Lowpressure]

WXMAN57, Good assessment, as usual. Also like the honesty you display with regards to changing track. It happened so fast, no one should have a problem with that. Your reasoning and ultimate track have sound backing and I agree the Eastern Gulf is prime for this storm. I hope the Florida pan handle dries out fast this week as it may have another dose soon.

[tgenius]

So the SE FL threat is diminishing based on that analysis WXMan? I still wonder how close the TS wind would get to FL if it followed that path though?

[capepoint]

>>When I was a kid, it seems like there were at least a few Labor Day weekends with a real threat on the map. Maybe it's just faulty memory though.

Definitely not faulty. I remember the same thing. My dad always had to work downtown, so we would go stay at his office. My brother had more than one birthday cake there because of storm threats. And many cancelled Tulane games for the same reason.

Labor day is the closest holiday to the statisical peak of the season. Look back through history and you will see a bunch of "Labor Day Storm of 19_ _ " references.

[Ivanhater]

Oh , and I dont like the Russian type names Ivan and Gustav!

[Lowpressure]

Gas companies are already lickin their chops. Just what they were waiting for- a cane in the GOM. Nice, $6.00 a gallon here we come.

[RL3AO]

Oh , and I dont like the Russian type names Ivan and Gustav!

Gustav is Swedish.

[cpdaman]

Does anyone have a link to any radar out of haiti/ DR?

[Stormcenter]

Hey Wxman that is quite a shift right in your track guidance from this morning

Yeah...and in the next couple of days...it will be time to gas up before it goes up.

They (oil companies) will start jacking the prices up even before (if it does)
enters the GOM.