ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[ColdFusion]

>>Being just days away from the 3rd Anniverary of Katrina, would be ugly to have a storm threatening the Gulf.

When I was a kid, it seems like there were at least a few Labor Day weekends with a real threat on the map. Maybe it's just faulty memory though.

Actually me and my dad were just having that same conversation about that SELA Labor Day threat...

[Ed Mahmoud]

The 1938 New England storm was 9/21, IIRC.

Now, with one barely Cat 1 hurricane in the last 60 years in October, Texas has sort of an end of hurricane season in about a month, but Louisiana to New England, the season goes on.

[RL3AO]

Recon going home?

[KWT]

Yeah Stormcenter thats the big question we have to answer, I suspect its going to a tough one to call, I do think this will bend back west sooner then the NHC track would suggest and if that occurs then Cuba and Yucatan would probably be a tthe biggest mid range threat.

however the ridging this year so far hasn't been all that impressive and I'll be surprised if unlike what the CMC shows a weakness will rear its ugly head.

[Just Joshing You]

I wonder what the NE Quad winds will be.

[dixiebreeze]

Not far to go to become a 'cane:

25/1745 UTC 15.9N 70.5W T3.5/3.5 07L -- Atlantic Ocean

Cat. 1 is 4.0/4.0

[MGC]

Gustav looks to be getting his act together rapidly. Should reach hurricane before landfall in Hati. I feel so bad for those folks down there. They have just about everything going against them from economic to political plus hurricanes. The future track of Gustav is critical. If Gustav tracks mostly over Cuba then we may be looking at a much weaker system wind wise. However, if Gustav tracks over water north or south of Cuba then it will be an entirely different game. Gustav looks to be developing a solid inner core and as long as he can stay off shore then the possibility of a significant TC might be realized.......MGC

[cycloneye]

Recon going home?

No,they look to do NE-SW pass shortly.

[AdamFirst]

Gustav is making up for lost time that Fay squandered.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Looking at my SSD floater, looks like Gustav is following NHC forecast points pretty closely. NHC forecast may be a concensus forecast, but that doens't mean it won't be close to being perfect.

[cpdaman]

looks like a left wobble (could this be a turn more wnw 295 ish )

[tgenius]

Wobble Watching will drive you to lose your hair if you keep at it long enough.. I'm already beat, and I can't believe this may go from TD to Cat1 in about 12 hrs time (Though the reality may be TS before the 2pm declaration) does bring back 2005 flashbacks.

[gatorcane]

looks like a left wobble (could this be a turn more wnw 295 ish )

I see a pretty straight shot NW over the past several hours...

[KWT]

Agreed Ed I think the first 24hrs of the NHC track looks good, its after that I think most people think its too far north, as do the models now as well it appears.

As others say Gustav is likely well on his way to being a hurricane now, conditions aloft look pretty decent IMO for strengthening to occur.

[ColdFusion]

Ok, I am definitely not FORECASTING a central GOM hit, but was looking at the NOLA evacuation procedures. It says:

A. Evacuation Time Requirements

Using information developed as part of the Southeast Louisiana Hurricane Task Force and other research, the City of New Orleans has established a maximum acceptable hurricane evacuation time standard for a Category 3 storm event of 72 hours.

So depending on the speed, and if this continues to ramp up, misses land for the most part and winds up off the tip of Cuba in a few days, then conceivably, NOLA would have to start evac as early as the end of this week if it stayed in the cone. I dont have a good handle on when landfall would occur IF it took that route, but it seems that preparations would have to start kicking into gear relatively soon if it did.

Lots of ifs and assumptions, but hard not to at least consider that possibility.

[ROCK]

looks like a left wobble (could this be a turn more wnw 295 ish )

I see a pretty straight shot NW over the past several hours...

I see a wnw wobble also....maybe feeling the ridge....

[Sanibel]

The surface eye is more like a 310 degree heading. Should clip the west arm of Haiti.

[duris]

>>When I was a kid, it seems like there were at least a few Labor Day weekends with a real threat on the map. Maybe it's just faulty memory though.

Definitely not faulty. I remember the same thing. My dad always had to work downtown, so we would go stay at his office. My brother had more than one birthday cake there because of storm threats. And many cancelled Tulane games for the same reason.

[storms in NC]

The surface eye is more like a 310 degree heading. Should clip the west arm of Haiti.

Think you may be right.

[Jimsot]

Gustav seems to be trailing storms all the way back to here on Anguilla, then I looked over my shoulder and 95L is dragging a bunch of blobs along..............