ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[caribepr]

this system is not "fairly much out to sea"

it could be a day away from killing thousands in Haiti!

funny to me how "some" people continue to act as if people from the islands do not exist...

I'm saying this here instead of a pm just to make note that MANY more people on this board are aware the islands are full of people who exist and deserve that recognition from those of us who live in the islands, much more so every year. The rest just have to catch up. And I passionately hope that, in this scenario, Derek is wrong, but know how little it would take for him to be right

[Sanibel]

Unlike yesterday, today we have a High pressure feel here in SW Florida with clear blue skies between clouds and a lighter breezy feeling like High pressure. Similar to before Fay.

Have to force myself to turn this off for a few hours, but only after the NE quadrant reading.

[T'Bonz]

Get ready with the news broadcasts in Miami..

*snortle!* Isn't THAT the truth! It's on FOX news already though.

[CrazyC83]

This could be catastrophic for Hispaniola who had just been doused by Fay.

[Scorpion]

This seems to happen alot recently, with the models overdoing the ridge and a TC in the Caribbean goes more right than predicted. South FL is certainly not in the clear now.

[ConvergenceZone]

Special thanks go out to all of the METS here....You don't have to keep updated with your forecasts and opinions, but you do and in spite of all of the questions that we hammer you with, we much appreciate the time you spend on these forums....You all do a fantastic job!!!

[DESTRUCTION5]

Closed Wall..I expect Cane warnings for hati/DR coming soon...

AT 2 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
HAS UPGRADED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING TO A HURRICANE WARNING FOR
THE SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM SANTO DOMINGO
WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF HAITI.

[bob rulz]

Some people do forget that the islands exist, but it also bothers me when people think that just because someone is thinking of themselves that they're automatically selfish and short-sighted and not thinking of other people as well. There's too much sensitivity in this world.

[tgenius]

I truly feel for the poor people in Haiti.. they've literally gone from a lil rain storm to a possible hurricane on their doorstep in less than 24 hours... and many in Haiti are so poor

[KWT]

yep hurricane warnings now, I fully expect this will be a hurricane by the time it gets close, maybe even strong then cat-1 as well IMO.

[Dean4Storms]

Get ready with the news broadcasts in Miami..

Well based on Pro Met consensus so far, I would say South Florida looks to be in the clear. Nearly every pro met thinks the ridge is going to block Gustav from getting close at least to southern FL.

Good news for Southern FL again if this verifies.

But not necessarily SW Florida.

[Air Force Met]

AFM, you buy the NHC initial track? What's your take on the GFS/Canadian ridge position over Florida for the next 5-6 days? I find it hard to believe Gustav (just upgraded) will track across Cuba toward the ridge. My initial track takes it west from north of Jamaica to the Yucatan, very similar to the 12z GFS. GFDL, I see, has some south of west motion as well but at a much slower clip, allowing it to turn north to the east-central Gulf. Could be moving it too slowly, though.

I talked to Kevin earlier. Gave him my take on it. I think the NHC track is too far east and they are again splitting the consensus until they get a better handle on it. I admit to only taking a look for the first time this morning...so I am a little behind the power curve...but my initial thoughts are a track to the WNW-NW to extreme western Haiti...then turning more west in response to the ridging...moving along the southern coast of Cuba then the western end of Cuba into the Gulf. The trof that tugged it NW is certainly moving to its east already and the ridge is already there.

I know some don't trust the GFS because it doesn't see Gustav...but really...is that important? It sees the ridge. As I have always said: I don't really look at what the GFS or the CMC/EURO/UKMET/NOGAPS does with the SFC features...or even if it picks them up. I look at how it is handling the synoptics...since that is what will steer them in the first place. Given the short term forecast we are speaking of...I buy the ridging over the next couple of days. The GFS initialized well this am.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/obswx/maps/500_080825_12.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_000l.gif

5 days from now...who knows. I would like to see a little more model to model consistancy...but I am thinking somewhere along the middle GoM coast. LA-West FL Panhandle. Just a first guess though.

[KWT]

The interesting thing is the guidence actually has shown a deep storm will be taken a little further to the west then the shallow guidence suggests, find it hard to believe that this won't bend back at least to near west if not briefly WSW though exactly when that happens will determine whether we have yet another land hugger or one that stays just to the south and becomes a monster...

[green eyed girl]

Special thanks go out to all of the METS here....You don't have to keep updated with your forecasts and opinions, but you do and in spite of all of the questions that we hammer you with, we much appreciate the time you spend on these forums....You all do a fantastic job!!!

Here, Here! You are all very much appreciated.

[Stormcenter]

This seems to happen alot recently, with the models overdoing the ridge and a TC in the Caribbean goes more right than predicted. South FL is certainly not in the clear now.

Look I'm not sure how anyone can sound the all clear for any location.
Hasn't anyone learned their lessen yet? In the end you'll always get burned doing that. Personally I'm still hanging on to the fish storm scenario.

[Regit]

This seems to happen alot recently, with the models overdoing the ridge and a TC in the Caribbean goes more right than predicted. South FL is certainly not in the clear now.

Look I'm not sure how anyone can sound the all clear for any location.
Hasn't anyone learned their lessen yet? In the end you'll always get burned doing that. Personally I'm still hanging on to the fish storm scenario.

I'd say fish storm is pretty much impossible. You don't see many Caribbean fish storms.

[hsvwx]

Just another note... the Canadian and UKMET also have the system much further west now, with the Canadian similar to the HWRF and GFDL, and the UKMET closer to the GFS with a weak system going in the Yucatan.

[Category 5]

This seems to happen alot recently, with the models overdoing the ridge and a TC in the Caribbean goes more right than predicted. South FL is certainly not in the clear now.

Look I'm not sure how anyone can sound the all clear for any location.
Hasn't anyone learned their lessen yet? In the end you'll always get burned doing that. Personally I'm still hanging on to the fish storm scenario.

Theres almost no possible way it becomes a fish storm, unless it somehow manages to avoid Hispaniola and the Bahamas.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

I think the 6pm models will be much better now that they can incorporate a real center fix and have a clue on intensity to start with.

[cpdaman]

how confident are we the weakness doesn't suck this further north before the likely turn to the west later. as in NW of haiti, this is what concerns me in the short-medium term in s fl