ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[Lowpressure]

48kts flight level.

[Category 5]

48kt FL, hello Gustav.

[wxman57]

Here's last night's Canadian run showing the 500mb heights valid 7pm CDT Tuesday. Again, note the similarity to the GFS forecast. High over FL/Bahamas. Either Gustav has to shoot off to the N-NNE fast or it would have to track west or even south of west from near Haiti. The Canadian holds the ridge over FL, the Bahamas, and the eastern Gulf through late this week.

[Steve]

Exactly Dean. I wasn't sure if wx warrior was being sarcastic, meaning some other model or he was just typing something he read somewhere else.

Steve

[Stormcenter]

Here's last night's Canadian run showing the 500mb heights valid 7pm CDT Tuesday. Again, note the similarity to the GFS forecast. High over FL/Bahamas. Either Gustav has to shoot off to the N-NNE fast or it would have to track west or even south of west from near Haiti. The Canadian holds the ridge over FL, the Bahamas, and the eastern Gulf through late this week.

If this holds true then final landfall would be somewhere in Mexico (Yucatan). Correct?

[Stormcenter]

This eye feature continues to impress me...wow.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

[Dean4Storms]

Yea Steve, the GFS has no idea on the 12z that a TS is sitting down there, so it can't be trusted in the short term much less the long term. LOL!

[gatorcane]

I find it doubtful that such a massive blocking ridge will develop over Florida and the GOM given how Fay is in the picture...and notice Fay is moving north now....that is not what I would expect to see if there was massive ridging building in.

The NHC must be thinking something similar or else their cone would not be so far north encompassing southern FL and the Bahamas.

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif

[twister]

I agree that TD7 is a TS. My guess is 998 mbs.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-wv.html

[93superstorm]

Getting more and more impressive. Looks like a CDO is developing. Im thinking pressure is between 990-994

[Sanibel]

Note the right angle shape to the north quadrant edge. Flat angles are sometimes the sign of a system encountering a steering feature.

[Just Joshing You]

66 kt FL

[chris_fit]

66kt flight level

[Brent]

66 kt FL 52 kt SFMR!!!!!!!!!!

[CrazyC83]

Supports an intensity of 50-55 kt. I'd say there will be a special advisory after the VDM comes out.

[Just Joshing You]

This may just be a Hurricane.. whoa.

[Sanibel]

The hurricane (err, cyclone eye) eye has been rather obvious for sometime now.

[cycloneye]

Lowest pressure found 996 mbs.

[Dean4Storms]

Here's last night's Canadian run showing the 500mb heights valid 7pm CDT Tuesday. Again, note the similarity to the GFS forecast. High over FL/Bahamas. Either Gustav has to shoot off to the N-NNE fast or it would have to track west or even south of west from near Haiti. The Canadian holds the ridge over FL, the Bahamas, and the eastern Gulf through late this week.

If this holds true then final landfall would be somewhere in Mexico (Yucatan). Correct?

No

[CrazyC83]

Not exactly surprising though considering its satellite appearance.