ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[Wthrman13]

I haven't had a whole lot of time yet today to look closely at the model forecast fields for the long term track, but at least in the short term, it appears to me that the center of TD7 has already passed the longitude of the UL low to its north. Beyond that, I see an upper-level high sitting over the FL straights. I really don't see this turning north into the weakness at this point. It's too late for that.

[hial2]

I hope it will go poleward. Looks impressive on visable. Recon scheduled for 2:00 EST.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

GFS forecasts a pretty strong ridge over central Bahamas Tue/Wed. That would argue for a more westward track from near Haiti.

Right, but wouldn't Tues/Wed be too late? This is forecast to be in vicinity of the Bahamas on Friday....

I think he means tomorrow and the day after,not next week

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

I cant believe this isnt a tropical storm even if it doesnt have a low level circulation atleast people will pay closer atention to it. In my opinion they should have declared it a tropical storm. If i was in the path i would rather them be wrong on the high end of things then the low side. But i also know that they dont want to scare people and get alot of hype going.

Its a depression so it has a low level circulation since thats needed for it to be a Tropical depression

[alienstorm]

Recon to find either a very strong Tropical Storm or a minimal hurricane once they arrive. Track should be toward the eastern tip of Cuba with a blend to the WNW and then back to the NW later this week. Also, it will slow down it's forward speed gradually...

[jlauderdal]

if they bring out phil ferro tomorrow morning we are in trouble, he was terrible during fay

Not only terrible, but plain wrong and providing incorrect information! Too bad our old weatherman had all those *ahem* problems....

I'm really hoping this first track follows ye olde tradition of "if your in the bullseye on the first forecast than its gonna miss you".

yep big house for bill, phill ferro just was not good, he was better in the past..ok back on topic

[Category 5]

seems to be pretty much a NW movement now (no longer WNW):

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif

We heard you the first 800 times.

I'm very interested to see what recon finds. I have a feeling we're in for another long week.

[Cryomaniac]

Recon to find either a very strong Tropical Storm or a minimal hurricane once they arrive. Track should be toward the eastern tip of Cuba with a blend to the WNW and then back to the NW later this week. Also, it will slow down it's forward speed gradually...

I have trouble believing that they will find a hurricane, but it's possible.

[wxman57]

I hope it will go poleward. Looks impressive on visable. Recon scheduled for 2:00 EST.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

GFS forecasts a pretty strong ridge over central Bahamas Tue/Wed. That would argue for a more westward track from near Haiti.

Right, but wouldn't Tues/Wed be too late? This is forecast to be in vicinity of the Bahamas on Friday....

Tuesday is tomorrow. GFS has the ridge over south Florida and the Bahamas from tomorrow through next weekend. So if the GFS is correct, a south Florida hit is unlikely.

[jlauderdal]

I hope it will go poleward. Looks impressive on visable. Recon scheduled for 2:00 EST.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

GFS forecasts a pretty strong ridge over central Bahamas Tue/Wed. That would argue for a more westward track from near Haiti.

how has the gfs handled the evolution of td7 so far?

[chris_fit]

Tuesday is tomorrow. GFS has the ridge over south Florida and the Bahamas from tomorrow through next weekend. So if the GFS is correct, a south Florida hit is unlikely.

Gotcha, thought you meant next Tuesday. Dohhhh.

[haml8]

What's your track, Derek? You buy the NHC forecast?

viewtopic.php?f=29&t=102745

Close to 12Z GFDL, north of HWRF. It's possible, I have it as my "other option" track.

wxman57, do you have a similar forecast to Derek's that we could look at? I for one would like to see your first option.

Thanks,

[Chigger_Lopez]

For what it is worth, TWC just mentioned that the storm should be Gustav today and sooner than later, my guess is 2pm. Also, she mentioned that it is progged to head NW, then North, and then mentioned perhaps even NE which she suggested leads to the large amount of uncertainty with the storm. Did say that everyone INCLUDING SF should keep a very close eye on this. What would make this turn towards the NE? Anyone?

[Wx_Warrior]

GFS is bullish on the system and sends west into South Mexico. That's if you believe the GFS...Most are trending more to the right now.

[wxman57]

I plotted the 500mb heights every 5 meters valid Tuesday evening (see below). That ridge is forecast by the GFS to be sitting over Florida through next Saturday. Given that, to forecast a track straight to the ridge (NHC track) means you don't buy the GFS solution, I guess. Canadian shows a similar ridge. I don't buy the WNW-NW movement from south of Haiti tomorrow.

[perk]

This is a slap in the face to the NHC, i'm officially done with JB and Accuweather.

[wxman57]

wxman57, do you have a similar forecast to Derek's that we could look at? I for one would like to see your first option.

Thanks,

Passing between Jamaica and Cuba at 48 hours, west through Caymans Thursday morning. Due west to central Yucatan along about 19N.

[Frank2]

I downloaded an azimuth overlay, and, after using it over the VIS loop, the system is on a 320-325 heading...

Frank

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

For what it is worth, TWC just mentioned that the storm should be Gustav today and sooner than later, my guess is 2pm. Also, she mentioned that it is progged to head NW, then North, and then mentioned perhaps even NE which she suggested leads to the large amount of uncertainty with the storm. Did say that everyone INCLUDING SF should keep a very close eye on this. What would make this turn towards the NE? Anyone?

Last night someone said that a front is supposed to dive deep to the south by the end of the week. That could cause it to shunt it out to the NE.

[haml8]

wxman57, do you have a similar forecast to Derek's that we could look at? I for one would like to see your first option.

Thanks,

Passing between Jamaica and Cuba at 48 hours, west through Caymans Thursday morning. Due west to central Yucatan along about 19N.

Thanks, I have been keeping up with your forecasts and you make some very good points. Does it matter that this "area of disturbed weather" is moving at a good clip? Will that effect the eventual steerage?

[jasons2k]

Afraid we'll lose the "direct to hurricane" speculation if that eye doesn't improve before the hurrucane hunter gets there.

Turn it off for a few hours and come back to see where it goes.

A sensible post here

This is most-likely a transient feature - we've seen these before with developing systems - this one has a way to go before we can talk about true eyes, etc.