ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[HURAKAN]

[Ed Mahmoud]

I'll just say this to those who won't go with the NHC's assessment of this as a TD for now without further recon: Remember TS Franklin's "eye" in 2005 when it was still an invest?

This is a very good point. Though everything points to TS, nothing confirms that better then good ole recon.

Snip from NHC discussion. BTW, I think their cone is a good one. If I lived in Florida, I'd beat the rush if Fay depleted my storm supplies.

AN SSM/IS
IMAGE FROM SEVERAL HOURS AGO DEPICTED AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE AT THE 91
GHZ FREQUENCY...BUT IT WAS NOT EVIDENT ON THE 37 GHZ CHANNEL.
SINCE THE LATTER CHANNEL IS MORE SENSITIVE TO THE LOWER-LEVELS...
THIS EYE-LIKE FEATURE WAS PRIMARILY ALOFT. INTERESTINGLY
HOWEVER...THE GEOSTATIONARY IMAGES ALSO SHOW A RELATIVELY CLEAR
AREA NEAR THE CENTER THAT RESEMBLES AN EYE. OUR INITIAL INTENSITY
ESTIMATE IS CONSERVATIVELY SET AT 30 KT BASED ON AN EARLIER REPORT
FROM NOAA DATA BUOY 42059. OBSERVATIONS FROM AN UPCOMING AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTER MISSION SHOULD GIVE UPDATED INFORMATION ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM.

[Portastorm]

they say its moving NW?

Interesting.

Interesting indeed, because if that dark spot some speculate to be an eye is the center it appear to be moving slightly north of due west.

Right-o and the current movement is matched better by the BAM models than anything else. NHC acknowledges there are 2 distinct directions from modeling and they have chosen for now to split the difference. We probably won't see good modeling data until the 0z runs which will have correct initialization.

[cycloneye]

[jasons2k]

A few highlights from the discussion:

1) The "eye like feature" appears to be more aloft but will be confirmed with recon.
2) Initial intensity "conservatively" set. In other words, they know it's probably on the low side.
3) The track simply splits the difference of two possible scenarios.

Just to add:
Remember, things often change after the initial advisory(ies). Remember Cindy a few years ago? I'd wait until the recon data, a true center fix, etc., are inputted into the models before reading too much into the forecast track & intensity. Since the current forecast track is a compromise, it's bound to swing either left or right when it's clear which scenario will win-out.

[x-y-no]

Huh ... that NHC track is north of what I expected. Not a good scenario for SFL ...

[gatorcane]

well if you look at the latest frame, it appears to have "wobbled" more NW so that NW movement may be finally commencing.

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif

[ConvergenceZone]

wow, so much for rapid intensification, they are keeping this a tropical storm over the next few days. I guess they are seeing something we aren't.....

[Blown Away]

Southern Florida is in the cone yet again....

Yeah, the question is will SFL need shutters this time?

[storm4u]

if this becomes a hurricane wouldnt there be more of a poleard movement and not a west one? Could be wrong you guys know best and do a great job just a question trying to learn here.

[gatorcane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

I think it may go through the windward passage and enter the SE Bahamas....probably will go East of Jamaica. I am leaning more toward the Euro model with this one. I think it will tap into the deeper layer steering which brings the depression through a weakness north of it.

[Stormcenter]

Say hello to Florida (again) and maybe the SE coast.
Hopefully this will go out to sea and not bother anyone.

[Chacor]

As always, you can try your hand at having a guess on TD Seven. Just head over to the forecasting contest forum: viewtopic.php?f=25&t=102744

[Blown Away]

well if you look at the latest frame, it appears to have "wobbled" more NW so that NW movement may be finally commencing.

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif

Systems moving through the Windward pass during August & September are usually not good for SFL.

[deltadog03]

WHAT???

[O Town]

well if you look at the latest frame, it appears to have "wobbled" more NW so that NW movement may be finally commencing.

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif

Most definitely.
Close up view of visible

[Cryomaniac]

wow, so much for rapid intensification, they are keeping this a tropical storm over the next few days. I guess they are seeing something we aren't.....

I'm guessing land interaction will keep it as a TS.

Of course if recon finds 50kt winds, it could become a Hurricane.

[jlauderdal]

well if you look at the latest frame, it appears to have "wobbled" more NW so that NW movement may be finally commencing.

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif

follow the trend and not every wobble, they dont move in straight lines

[cycloneye]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

I think it may go through the Mona passage and enter the SE Bahamas....probably will go East of Jamaica. I am leaning more toward the Euro model with this one.

I think you meant windward passage.

[Comanche]

wow, so much for rapid intensification, they are keeping this a tropical storm over the next few days. I guess they are seeing something we aren't.....

Until they get recon AND good initialization of the models, they will remain conservative. Plenty of time to ramp forecasts up.