ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[Meso]

I agree with him. Wish there were buoys closer to the storm, but the quickscat showed winds between 45 and 50kt and that was a long time ago already. They will likely be more conservative with it and my guess it that it will be named a 35-40kt storm. Since the quickscat earlier today the presentation has really improved too.


My opinion, storm2k not liable for what I say.See NHC for real forecast. etc

[Buck]

000
WTNT32 KNHC 251438
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
1100 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2008

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM SANTO DOMINGO WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN
BORDER OF HAITI.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE SOUTHWEST PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE SOUTHERN BORDER WITH
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND PORT-AU-PRINCE WESTWARD. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
HAITI FROM NORTH OF PORT-AU-PRINCE TO THE NORTHERN BORDER OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

SATELLITE DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA IN THE CARIBBEAN HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND IS
NOW A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.1 WEST OR ABOUT 260
MILES...415 KM...SOUTHEAST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24
KM/HR...AND A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING NEAR OR OVER SOUTHWESTERN HAITI ON
TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME
A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 5 TO 7 INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
15 TO 25 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE INTENSE RAINS MAY PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...15.5 N...70.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[Category 5]

It looks like a moderate to strong TS on satellite, but I cannot prove this so I won't claim it is. I suspect recon will paint a much different picture then the TD 7.

[ROCK]

This should be an interesting recon mission this afternoon. Bad feeling for Florida about this one, especially after all the rain from Fay...

why the bad feeling Ed? do you feel FL will see this based on a swing in the models today?

[Ed Mahmoud]

JB says he believes it's already sub 1000mb and 50 kt

And a threat to Florida and the SE Coast, and a politically incorrect "Thank goodness for Hispaniola".

[Chacor]

I'll just say this to those who won't go with the NHC's assessment of this as a TD for now without further recon: Remember TS Franklin's "eye" in 2005 when it was still an invest?

[Stormcenter]

Is just me or does this look like it will be a small compact storm if it develops?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-avn.html

[rockyman]

5 day forecast:
initial 25/1500z 15.5n 70.1w 30 kt
12hr VT 26/0000z 16.5n 71.1w 40 kt
24hr VT 26/1200z 17.6n 72.2w 50 kt
36hr VT 27/0000z 18.8n 73.3w 50 kt
48hr VT 27/1200z 19.7n 74.2w 55 kt
72hr VT 28/1200z 21.0n 75.5w 55 kt
96hr VT 29/1200z 22.0n 77.0w 60 kt
120hr VT 30/1200z 22.5n 78.0w 60 kt

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at ... ml#a_topad

[Category 5]

I'll just say this to those who won't go with the NHC's assessment of this as a TD for now without further recon: Remember TS Franklin's "eye" in 2005 when it was still an invest?

This is a very good point. Though everything points to TS, nothing confirms that better then good ole recon.

[gatorcane]

they say its moving NW?

Interesting.

[jlauderdal]

This time I'm going with the NHC's track and throwing out the intensity forecast. The NHC was almost dead on with the Fay track from the beginning.

you should go with their tracks especially three day until anyone proves they are better and so far I have never seen it

[southerngale]

This time I'm going with the NHC's track and throwing out the intensity forecast. The NHC was almost dead on with the Fay track from the beginning.

LOL, good one, you made me spit coffee on that one.

Good one? The NHC did an awesome job with Fay's track.

Compare the first advisory to one shortly before landfall in South Florida.

[perk]

JB says he believes it's already sub 1000mb and 50 kt

And a threat to Florida and the SE Coast, and a politically incorrect "Thank goodness for Hispaniola".

He also said Fay would cross Florida and head up the east coast.

[gatorcane]

Southern Florida is in the cone yet again....

[Ed Mahmoud]

Got enough frames of visible to say that it appears the 'eye feature' (not an eye, TD's don't have eyes) is indeed the center of circulation.

Motion to me looks more WNW than NW, but NHC obviously expects the turn soon. I think, while technically a 'low skill' model, the persistence and climatology model may win the war on this model run.



Plus, as an untrained amateur, while Bastardi has been off on the fine details, he has generally been right on the bigger picture from longer term, and even Derek sees a possible SFL threat. And, it would be just my luck they cancel the Florida Atlantic game in Austin because a storm is threatening their campus. I have game tickets and hotel reservations.

[Category 5]

This time I'm going with the NHC's track and throwing out the intensity forecast. The NHC was almost dead on with the Fay track from the beginning.

LOL, good one, you made me spit coffee on that one.

LOL! YOU made ME spit coffee on that one.

[mattpetre]

Jamaica is on the edge of their cone, if that dry spotty eye-like feature is actually reflecting the motion of the overall storm, then I would say this thing actually has a chance of passing just south of Jamaica. If that occurs I'm afraid they will have missed the 3 day on this one. If it does not get near Jamaica I will eat more crow and happily stop posting for the duration of this storm. Maybe

[Sanibel]

A dry spot doesn't show up in the middle of the vortex on microwave or track directly with the storm in the center. This will all be moot in a few hours anyway. Hair-splitting considering what this is about to do.



15.4N-70W

[perk]

they say its moving NW?

Interesting.

Interesting indeed, because if that dark spot some speculate to be an eye is the center it appear to be moving slightly north of due west.

[x-y-no]

Interesting bit from the NHC discussion:

ANALYSIS OF DIRECTIONAL AMBIGUITIES FROM A QUIKSCAT OVERPASS
INDICATED A SURFACE CIRCULATION CENTER. THEREFORE WE ARE
INITIATING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN. AN SSM/IS
IMAGE FROM SEVERAL HOURS AGO DEPICTED AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE AT THE 91
GHZ FREQUENCY...BUT IT WAS NOT EVIDENT ON THE 37 GHZ CHANNEL.
SINCE THE LATTER CHANNEL IS MORE SENSITIVE TO THE LOWER-LEVELS...
THIS EYE-LIKE FEATURE WAS PRIMARILY ALOFT. INTERESTINGLY
HOWEVER...THE GEOSTATIONARY IMAGES ALSO SHOW A RELATIVELY CLEAR
AREA NEAR THE CENTER THAT RESEMBLES AN EYE.