ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

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x-y-no
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#1181 Postby x-y-no » Mon Aug 25, 2008 8:52 am

Gustav is a good old family name - it was my great-great-grandfather's name, my grandfather's name and it's my father's middle name.
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Matt-hurricanewatcher

Re: 94L invest_RENUMBER_al942008_al072008.ren=TC at 11 am

#1182 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Mon Aug 25, 2008 8:54 am

ROCK wrote:
HURAKAN wrote:DON'T JUMP!!

Image




dang that looks like an eye....sheesh to me....closed.....



If that is a eye this is at least 50 knots. :roll:
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Re: 94L invest_RENUMBER_al942008_al072008.ren=TC at 11 am

#1183 Postby tolakram » Mon Aug 25, 2008 8:54 am

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... at2_0.html

The position needs to be changed but look how vigorous the circulation looks.
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Re: 94L invest_RENUMBER_al942008_al072008.ren=TC at 11 am

#1184 Postby carversteve » Mon Aug 25, 2008 8:55 am

Is there a chance to get an advisory before 11?? Or is there no chance of that without recon?
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Re: 94L invest_RENUMBER_al942008_al072008.ren=TC at 11 am

#1185 Postby ROCK » Mon Aug 25, 2008 8:55 am

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:
ROCK wrote:
HURAKAN wrote:DON'T JUMP!!

Image




dang that looks like an eye....sheesh to me....closed.....



If that is a eye this is at least 50 knots. :roll:




just stating what I see Matt.....no need for the eye roll bro......we are all family here...
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#1186 Postby gatorcane » Mon Aug 25, 2008 8:55 am

I guess if this does affect South Florida and the FL Keys, NHC must think that 94L is going to slow its forward progress because if you extrapolate the current speed, it would be in the vicinity of Southern FL in 3-4 days.

The last NHC discussion did not mention South Florida (yet).
Last edited by gatorcane on Mon Aug 25, 2008 8:55 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 94L invest_RENUMBER_al942008_al072008.ren=TC at 11 am

#1187 Postby Category 5 » Mon Aug 25, 2008 8:55 am

We can't wait until 2 for recon, we need them out there ASAP.
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Re: 94L invest_RENUMBER_al942008_al072008.ren=TC at 11 am

#1188 Postby Blown Away » Mon Aug 25, 2008 8:55 am

HURAKAN wrote:DON'T JUMP!!

Image


Looks like Fay when she was over Central Florida. Very cool pic!
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Re: 94L invest_RENUMBER_al942008_al072008.ren=TC at 11 am

#1189 Postby meteorologyman » Mon Aug 25, 2008 8:56 am

question, some of you guys are posting that this "may" be a Florida landfall, but 1/2 the models take it to Mexico and another 1/2 takes it near FL.

So why do you think this is a FL landfall, I can't tell all I see is a mess looking at these weather pattern?
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Re: 94L invest_RENUMBER_al942008_al072008.ren=TC at 11 am

#1190 Postby ROCK » Mon Aug 25, 2008 8:56 am

Wheres Walken!!!! :lol:
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Re: 94L invest_RENUMBER_al942008_al072008.ren=TC at 11 am

#1191 Postby gatorcane » Mon Aug 25, 2008 8:57 am

meteorologyman wrote:question, some of you guys are posting that this "may" be a Florida landfall, but 1/2 the models take it to Mexico and another 1/2 takes it near FL.

So why do you think this is a FL landfall, I can't tell all I see is a mess looking at these weather pattern?


Well the NHC mentioned the SE Bahamas and Eastern Cuba in their last TWO --- which often can preclude talk of a SE Florida impact in future discussions...

but you are right, we don't know who will get impacted at this point.
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Re: 94L invest_RENUMBER_al942008_al072008.ren=TC at 11 am

#1192 Postby CronkPSU » Mon Aug 25, 2008 8:58 am

ROCK wrote:Wheres Walken!!!! :lol:



I'd rather see Bones
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Re:

#1193 Postby perk » Mon Aug 25, 2008 8:58 am

gatorcane wrote:I see hints of a NW turn already...looks like a little stair-stepping maybe?

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif

I see nothing in that loop to indicate a NW turn.
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#1194 Postby Meso » Mon Aug 25, 2008 8:58 am

If that is a eye this is at least 50 knots.


Well it probably is... around 4 hours ago the quikscat image was showing reliable winds of around 45kt so 50kt is very possible
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#1195 Postby deltadog03 » Mon Aug 25, 2008 8:59 am

Gator, Still looks WNW...To me looks like jamaica is in its sights...
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#1196 Postby gatorcane » Mon Aug 25, 2008 8:59 am

guys yes after further analysis I agree with you...looks WNW to me still.... :uarrow:
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Re: 94L invest_RENUMBER_al942008_al072008.ren=TC at 11 am

#1197 Postby chris_fit » Mon Aug 25, 2008 9:00 am

poof121 wrote:I sure hope that CAT5 in the Yucatan Straits a GFDL few runs ago doesn't verify....



Nope offense, but I hope it does, even if it's not a CAT5. Keep it away from FL!
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#1198 Postby Agua » Mon Aug 25, 2008 9:00 am

This thing needs to recurve - looks to be a potentially very dangerous storm.

Not a met, just personal opinion of individual poster with no meteorlogical basis in fact.
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Re: 94L invest_RENUMBER_al942008_al072008.ren=TC at 11 am

#1199 Postby meteorologyman » Mon Aug 25, 2008 9:00 am

Thank you gatorcane, I guess TWO raise to a 60% chance of Lanfall over Florida compare to a 40% for Mexico at this point.
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Re: 94L invest_RENUMBER_al942008_al072008.ren=TC at 11 am

#1200 Postby Fego » Mon Aug 25, 2008 9:01 am

NONAME...
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... &TYPE=ssmi
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