ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[SouthFloridawx]

OMG... I think I see an EYE!!!

[twister]

94 does look impressive. Oh boy. The models are very interesting.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html

[GeneratorPower]

Good grief every frame shows deeper convection. Wow.

[cpdaman]

what is the mechanism that is supposed to cause a weakness near 75 w

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html

seems the ULL is moving slowly Ne, so i wouldn't think this would be the source, though i dunno

anyone have insights

also thru 315 utc still looking nice and black on the IR

[SouthFLTropics]

94 does look impressive. Oh boy. The models are very interesting.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html

Interesting or confusing...I don't know which to call it...

SFT

[HURAKAN]

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Nice shape...All it needs is a LLC, in its off to the races.

[CajunMama]

I'm having a fay thread deja vu!

[Aric Dunn]

the models are all seeing something different evolving in terms of the ridge and shear.. so until something changes with them i suggest everyone look at whats going on now and stick to short term analysis. and hold off on the speculation for tad bit.

[cycloneye]

Here is the text of the TCFA:

WTNT01 KNGU 250001
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 250000Z AUG 08//
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.9N 66.5W TO 15.5N 72.4W
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 250000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.5N 67.7W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
TO 15 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP ALONG AN EASTERLY WAVE IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA, ROUGHLY 300NM TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO, MOVING
TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008MB WITH
SURFACE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE SYSTEM. AREAS OF CONVECTION ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER
ORGANIZED AND ROTATION IS EVIDENT IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(82F) EXIST DOWNSTREAM INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA ENHANCING
THE POSSIBILITY FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 260000Z.//

[southmdwatcher]

It really does not look like 94I is going to be a slow developer, ala Dolly and Fay. Ole Gustav looks like its going to be a charging bear through the Carribean. The convection and structure are improving with each satellite frame.

[SouthFLTropics]

I'm having a fay thread deja vu!

No joke Cajun...It looks like we are getting ready to do this all over again!!!

SFT

[vbhoutex]

I have to admit I haven't been following 94L too closely, but based on what I see tonight posted here(especially Aric's post above, if there is an LLCC forming it is on the far south end of all of the convection(basically based on the quickscat). I actually think there is still an axis as opposed to any LLCC(maybe a try at an elongated LLCC situated SW-NE). Persistance of the heavy convection could turn this into a different story quickly though, if my thoughts are correct.

[Aric Dunn]

radar.. showing very clear circulation.
http://www.weather.an/product_images/hi ... color.html

[bahamaswx]

Going to take a little while, but it looks like all systems go.

[RL3AO]

[SouthFLTropics]

I see that ACE Hardware is getting in on the Hurricane supply boom...LOL

SFT

[Sean in New Orleans]

Let me make it VERY clear: I am watching this one and I am concerned. For starters, think about the time of the year it is---we are basically getting towards the most active time and we are approaching a time when powerful systems can form very quickly. This could easily turn into something very significant and with its location, we could certainly see a landfalling system on the United States. Stay tuned--I am.

[AtlanticWind]

radar.. showing very clear circulation.
http://www.weather.an/product_images/hi ... color.html

Good Find , and looks like just about where you estimate the center from the IR

[meteorologyman]

ACE the helpful place

Well certainly can't wait for the sun to shine to see satellite imagery.
prepare for the worst, hope for the best as this thing becomes better organized.