ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[jlauderdal]

24/1145 UTC 12.0N 64.8W T1.0/1.0 94L -- Atlantic Ocean
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

Wow whimpy T Numbers yet. Impressive looking visible this morning for those numbers imo.

remember fay around PR, looked like a 1 at least and was an invest

[Emmett_Brown]

Reconvected near the center last night in D-Max.

Center not obvious -which means it is closer to the convection and therefore stronger. Somewhere near 13N-64W

Obvious player here. Should get a good hurricane from this one.

Fast forward movement shows new conditions are in Caribbean.

GOM?

I am thinking the same thing Sanibel... has that look. Regarding the fast movement currently being observed, I think the models that are showing an immediate NW turn into Hispaniola are underestimating the ridge to the N. At this rate, I would think E Cuba would be more likely. This looks to me like another land lover... SW Bahamas/Straits seems possible IMO.

[rockyman]

has recon been canceled for today?

[deltadog03]

Something is spinning for sure.

[cheezyWXguy]

24/1145 UTC 12.0N 64.8W T1.0/1.0 94L -- Atlantic Ocean
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

Wow whimpy T Numbers yet. Impressive looking visible this morning for those numbers imo.

remember fay around PR, looked like a 1 at least and was an invest

Yes but that is because it didnt have a surface circulation, but this one does. Note that T-numbers were pretty wimpy on that one at the time as well. Only about a 1.5 or 2, despite the having the mlc of a strong tropical storm.

[alan1961]

yes looks like rotation on this one and its dragging in some convection on its southern side.

[meteorologyman]

I'm curious if the sun has any involvement in intensifying tropical cyclones, I don't mean by providing heat for the sea or increasing humidity but more in providing energy.

I'm looking at the motion satellite picture and I seen the refelection of the sun but dissapears after 1 or 2 frames but it's about to head over 94 L in 2 hours

[cycloneye]

has recon been canceled for today?

No recon today.The plan of the day for Monday is not out yet.

[jlauderdal]

remember fay around PR, looked like a 1 at least and was an invest[/quote]
Yes but that is because it didnt have a surface circulation, but this one does. Note that T-numbers were pretty wimpy on that one at the time as well. Only about a 1.5 or 2, despite the having the mlc of a strong tropical storm.[/quote]
where is the center of the surface circulation and what is your source?

[StormTracker]

Anyone think the Herbert Box theory may come into play with this one?



Hebert says that a Hurricane does not have to pass through these boxes to hit, but if they do "you better pay attention". The 1935 Labor day Hurricane that devastated the Florida Keys developed west of this box and Hurricane Andrew passed NE of this box, so there are exceptions to the rule.

[cycloneye]

I think this was not posted earlier this morning so here it is:

[GeneratorPower]

Good grief looking at the amount of turning on IR this morning I would have thought a lot more people would be posting/interested in this thing. Looks fantastic to me, and you usually can't tell much from IR.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-avn.html

[cycloneye]

NHC plans recon missions starting on Monday afternoon (If Necessary)

Code: Select all

NOUS42 KNHC 241515
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT SUN 24 AUGUST 2008
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 25/1100Z TO 26/1100Z AUGUST 2008
         TCPOD NUMBER.....08-085

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
   1. CARIBBEAN SUSPECT AREA
      FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 70
      A. 25/1800Z
      B. AFXXX 01EEA INVEST
      C. 25/1430Z
      D. 15.5N 70.0W
      E. 25/1700Z TO 25/2200Z
      F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

      FLIGHT TWO ? TEAL 71
      A. 26/0600Z
      B. AFXXX 0207A CYCLONE
      C. 26/0300Z
      D. 16.5N 72.0W
      E. 26/0500Z TO 26/1200Z
      F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

   2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES
      IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD.shtml?

[gatorcane]

I had a feeling 94L was a go when I saw it a couple of days ago and took a look at the synoptics setup (look back a couple of days ago at my posts on this system). Code red by NHC is imminent probably within the next couple of advisories.

I haven't had alot of time to analyze current and future synoptics so have been checking in from time-to-time on this one and browsing member posts for updates -- will probably get some more time in about 24 hours.

[Clipper96]

Anyone think the Herbert Box theory may come into play with this one?



Hebert says that a Hurricane does not have to pass through these boxes to hit, but if they do "you better pay attention". The 1935 Labor day Hurricane that devastated the Florida Keys developed west of this box and Hurricane Andrew passed NE of this box, so there are exceptions to the rule.

So are Katrina, Rita, Allen, Isabel, Frederick....it's not much of a rule when there are so many cat4/5 "violators".

[cpdaman]

Anyone think the Herbert Box theory may come into play with this one?



Hebert says that a Hurricane does not have to pass through these boxes to hit, but if they do "you better pay attention". The 1935 Labor day Hurricane that devastated the Florida Keys developed west of this box and Hurricane Andrew passed NE of this box, so there are exceptions to the rule.

So are Katrina, Rita, Allen, Isabel, Frederick....it's not much of a rule when there are so many cat4/5 "violators".

also what's the deal w/ herbert box 2, i would guess these would effect florida a higher % of the time in october (but probably still lower than 50%)

[Clipper96]

Speaking of broken rules, 94 appears ready to put the nail in the coffin of the "Hope Rule" proscribing eastern Caribbean storms.

[cpdaman]

Anyone think the Herbert Box theory may come into play with this one?



Hebert says that a Hurricane does not have to pass through these boxes to hit, but if they do "you better pay attention". The 1935 Labor day Hurricane that devastated the Florida Keys developed west of this box and Hurricane Andrew passed NE of this box, so there are exceptions to the rule.

So are Katrina, Rita, Allen, Isabel, Frederick....it's not much of a rule when there are so many cat4/5 "violators".

also what's the deal w/ herbert box 2, i would guess these would effect florida a higher % of the time in october (but probably still lower than 50%), but i think the herbert box 1 has some amount of validity concerning "if it misses" the box, S.FL has usually a low chance of a direct hit

[cycloneye]

The latest visible pic.You can also see on the top 95L.

[Clipper96]

Uh-oh...

94 has both northeast and southwest outflow channels.

...you're all in trouble now.