ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[Emmett_Brown]

Looking at the picks, I dont see a candidate for a center yet. Maybe 12N, 64.5W? The turning to the N up around 14 N caught my eye, but thinking this is probably mid level.

[jlauderdal]

Way too early to write off this season. For all we know things could explode again come September, and October, November, and December have had a tendency to surprise us lately.

anyone writing off this season should be permanently banned from ever watching the tropics again here or anywhere else

[USTropics]

Way too early to write off this season. For all we know things could explode again come September, and October, November, and December have had a tendency to surprise us lately.

anyone writing off this season should be permanently banned from ever watching the tropics again here or anywhere else

There are possibly 4 areas of development coming into the beginning of this week. Invest 94L, 95L, 96L (presumably), and the new wave about to emerge off of Africa that the GFS really likes. I guess that's just your typical hurricane season right?

[HURAKAN]

[tropicana]

I am in Tobago this weekend and I can confirm its been a windy, rainy weekend here, occasional showers and thunderstorms. This morning, its cloudy and rather windy. The breeziest it has been since we arrived here on Thursday.
Truthfully, not much sunshine here at all since Thursday.

-justin-

[USTropics]

Hard to really tell with limited visible satellite pictures so far (QuikSCAT missed again), but looks like if there's anything at the surface it is more to the south at 11N65W.

[Emmett_Brown]

After having a second look at this, i think it will wait to develop for at least another 24-48 hrs. It is catching the wave in front, and the latest flareup over the EC looks like a rapidly westward moving wave, with warming tops... overall disorganized.

[jlauderdal]

Way too early to write off this season. For all we know things could explode again come September, and October, November, and December have had a tendency to surprise us lately.

anyone writing off this season should be permanently banned from ever watching the tropics again here or anywhere else

There are possibly 4 areas of development coming into the beginning of this week. Invest 94L, 95L, 96L (presumably), and the new wave about to emerge off of Africa that the GFS really likes. I guess that's just your typical hurricane season right?

maybe 6 areas at one time would make the season a success,

[Emmett_Brown]

Way too early to write off this season. For all we know things could explode again come September, and October, November, and December have had a tendency to surprise us lately.

anyone writing off this season should be permanently banned from ever watching the tropics again here or anywhere else

There are possibly 4 areas of development coming into the beginning of this week. Invest 94L, 95L, 96L (presumably), and the new wave about to emerge off of Africa that the GFS really likes. I guess that's just your typical hurricane season right?

Interesting... definitely potentially active. However, we know that not all of these are likely to develop; the models are probably a little over active with cyclogenisis. The problem with this, is that all those storms forming on the models cause the models to break down the mid atlantic ridge, and screw up the steering for the real potential TC's. I think this is what is causing some of the spread in potential tracks for 94L.

[USTropics]

That little island just to the southeast is called Porlamar. Surface obs show a steady north wind, not much though.

http://www.wunderground.com/history/sta ... story.html

[HURAKAN]

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

It is not rare at all to have 2+ invests during this time of the season. In if you think 14 named storms is someway me saying this seasons is "over" you better go look back at past seasons, and how many storms happen in them, because most seasons within a active period have "12-15" named storms...Also 14 named storms is a very active season; we need not add the weird 2005 season, in hype every seasonal forecast based on it. That would be "stupid" or a more pc way of saying it unwise or incorrect.

Also, what I posted to Derek Ortt is that the Eastern, Centeral Atlantic that make up the "MDR" has had many a ULL,Tutt so far. That could easly change as we get into September. One of the "bad" things about it is the waves move westward in form closer to land.

So no it is not wrong to point this out. It is just common sense. This is the last I'm talking about it because this thread is about 94L.

As for 94L it looks ok, but it will have to form around a centeral area of low pressure. I still expect that low pressure to form near 12-12.5 north where you see the curving of the convection. If the tutt can keep moving westward with it, then this could have favorable upper levels.

[cycloneye]

The 12:00 UTC Best Track:Matt,close to your position.

AL, 94, 2008082412, , BEST, 0, 121N, 646W, 25, 1008, LO,

[cycloneye]

Posting from the 94L Model Runs thread:

According to the latest 12:00 UTC SHIP forecast,sheaer will be mainly light.

Code: Select all

SHEAR (KTS)       13     7     5     2     6     6     9     7     7     3     7     3     4

[Ed Mahmoud]

Looks a lot better than 12 hours ago. Had boatloads of convection then, but looked disorganized. Now it seems to be on its way.


Bet NHC wishes they hadn't decided not to task a plane for today, tomorrow's plane might find a tropical storm already. If these keeps up like this, NHC could be forced to upgrade to a depression without recon, which I suspect they'd rather not do.


Of course, it could semi-fizzle for a while, and delaying aircraft tasking a day might seem a prescient idea.

[Sanibel]

Reconvected near the center last night in D-Max.

Center not obvious -which means it is closer to the convection and therefore stronger. Somewhere near 13N-64W

Obvious player here. Should get a good hurricane from this one.

Fast forward movement shows new conditions are in Caribbean.

GOM?

[Gustywind]

24/1145 UTC 12.0N 64.8W T1.0/1.0 94L -- Atlantic Ocean
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

[Aquawind]

24/1145 UTC 12.0N 64.8W T1.0/1.0 94L -- Atlantic Ocean
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

Wow whimpy T Numbers yet. Impressive looking visible this morning for those numbers imo.

[AtlanticWind]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-rgb.html

Getting its act together quickly I think.

[alicia83]

Looks like 94L is beginning to percolate. I'm beginning to see a rotation on the visual.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/vis-l.jpg