ATL Tropical Depression GUSTAV - Model Runs

[cycloneye]

Ivanhater,dont look



http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[Portastorm]

Ouch! Ivanhater, best you look at this run well after you've eaten dinner tonight.

[cycloneye]

SHIP makes it a hurricane but not as strong as GFDLs 18z run.

1
WHXX01 KWBC 240054
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0054 UTC SUN AUG 24 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942008) 20080824 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080824 0000 080824 1200 080825 0000 080825 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.1N 62.4W 11.8N 64.5W 12.7N 66.6W 13.8N 68.7W
BAMD 11.1N 62.4W 11.7N 65.3W 12.5N 67.8W 13.3N 70.3W
BAMM 11.1N 62.4W 11.8N 65.1W 12.6N 67.5W 13.4N 69.9W
LBAR 11.1N 62.4W 12.0N 65.3W 13.1N 68.3W 14.3N 71.4W
SHIP 25KTS 32KTS 40KTS 48KTS
DSHP 25KTS 32KTS 40KTS 48KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080826 0000 080827 0000 080828 0000 080829 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.8N 70.3W 16.6N 73.4W 18.1N 76.5W 18.6N 80.0W
BAMD 14.0N 72.6W 14.6N 77.4W 14.5N 82.0W 14.2N 86.0W
BAMM 14.1N 71.9W 14.9N 75.9W 15.2N 79.6W 14.9N 83.0W
LBAR 15.7N 74.0W 18.0N 78.6W 19.3N 82.3W 17.7N 85.8W
SHIP 57KTS 70KTS 77KTS 82KTS
DSHP 57KTS 70KTS 77KTS 82KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.1N LONCUR = 62.4W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 10.9N LONM12 = 59.6W DIRM12 = 275DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 10.7N LONM24 = 57.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 90NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[ROCK]

Ouch! Ivanhater, best you look at this run well after you've eaten dinner tonight.

not good for any GOM resident to swallow....

I had heard that JB thinks that this will be a major in the GOM...not gonna mention where he thinks track will be ....

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

That GFDL has as much chance of happening that way as I have at winning a million dollars at powerball.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Ouch! Ivanhater, best you look at this run well after you've eaten dinner tonight.

not good for any GOM resident to swallow....

I had heard that JB thinks that this will be a major in the GOM...not gonna mention where he thinks track will be ....

Not what i read Rock..He does not favor GOM at all

[Ivanhater]

Ouch!..good thing it hasnt developed yet and models will change a billion times, but it's just human nature to open your eyes when you see runs like the GFDL..and Rock, you know you just cant say that and not expect people to be curious! Where? My guess of JB would be Houston or Nola

[Ptarmigan]

Looks like a Category 4 between Yucatan and Cuba and heading into the Gulf. I don't know how this will pan out. Hopefully nothing happens.

[ROCK]

Ouch! Ivanhater, best you look at this run well after you've eaten dinner tonight.

not good for any GOM resident to swallow....

I had heard that JB thinks that this will be a major in the GOM...not gonna mention where he thinks track will be ....

Not what i read Rock..He does not favor GOM at all

I have a pretty good reliable source on his thoughts about 94L......now 95L he might have said something...

[ROCK]

Ouch!..good thing it hasnt developed yet and models will change a billion times, but it's just human nature to open your eyes when you see runs like the GFDL..and Rock, you know you just cant say that and not expect people to be curious! Where? My guess of JB would be Houston or Nola

check your PMs...

[Ivanhater]

Ouch!..good thing it hasnt developed yet and models will change a billion times, but it's just human nature to open your eyes when you see runs like the GFDL..and Rock, you know you just cant say that and not expect people to be curious! Where? My guess of JB would be Houston or Nola

check your PMs...

Blah, I got nothing! lol

[ROCK]

Ouch!..good thing it hasnt developed yet and models will change a billion times, but it's just human nature to open your eyes when you see runs like the GFDL..and Rock, you know you just cant say that and not expect people to be curious! Where? My guess of JB would be Houston or Nola

check your PMs...

Blah, I got nothing! lol

give me time to write it.... check again....

[Ivanhater]

Haa, I told you I was curious..lol

[paintplaye]

I want to know lol.

[perk]

Ouch! Ivanhater, best you look at this run well after you've eaten dinner tonight.

not good for any GOM resident to swallow....

I had heard that JB thinks that this will be a major in the GOM...not gonna mention where he thinks track will be ....

Rock why all of the secrecy, i thought this was a full disclosure forum.

[Cyclenall]

That GFDL has as much chance of happening that way as I have at winning a million dollars at powerball.

No. Derek said something similar about the path of Fay that the GFS was showing and it ended up happening to an extent. This (94L) has one of the highest chances yet to fulfill that GFDL run.

[cheezyWXguy]

That GFDL has as much chance of happening that way as I have at winning a million dollars at powerball.

No. Derek said something similar about the path of Fay that the GFS was showing and it ended up happening to an extent. This (94L) has one of the highest chances yet to fulfill that GFDL run.

I agree...this has some very favorable conditions ahead in about 24 to 36 hours, and development seems very possible at that time. Already signs of a broad llc forming. If this takes the gfdl's track then that strength may not be far fetched. Shooting channel=gulf coast pwned
(assuming it develops)

[SouthFLTropics]

Can somebody please post the 0z runs of the GFS? Or at least give me a link...

SFT

[Stormcenter]

That GFDL has as much chance of happening that way as I have at winning a million dollars at powerball.

No. Derek said something similar about the path of Fay that the GFS was showing and it ended up happening to an extent. This (94L) has one of the highest chances yet to fulfill that GFDL run.

I'll believe it when it happens.

[ROCK]

Can somebody please post the 0z runs of the GFS? Or at least give me a link...

SFT

coming in now but again not much to look at attm...loses 94L somewhere in the carib....


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... el_l.shtml