ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[yzerfan]

Light wind and currently overcast with no rain about five miles north of the Destin breakpoint. I'm kind of surprised at how little rain we've gotten so far, even though it's been the west side of the storm.

[jenmrk]

I am in Pensacola in the 9 mile rd area, we just had a fairly strong wind gust come through, and a brief period of heavy rain, I go into work tonight a 10, any idea as to what I may be I may be in for. I get off at 6 am.

[SCUBAdude]

So what gives, is this thing going to move west or north? Is the upper level low and dry air coming in from the West going to totally kill it or is it going to dive South and enhance the outflow? Based on what I see on radar it doesn't look like it'll ever make it to Mobile Bay but that's just my opinion.
Also here on Ft. Morgan Rd. thw wind has shifted from the north to more of a Northwest. And on top of that my weather station here at the house is reporting a 1mb per hour drop in pressure. Was 1008mb three hours ago and is now down to 1005mb.

On a side note, I went down Fort Morgan Rd. and about half the way down on the Bay wind surfers were tearing it up. The winds were about 30mph and some of those guys were catching some serious air.
SD

[wxman57]

AT 100 PM CDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
ESTIMATED BY RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS IN THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE NEAR LATITUDE 30.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.9 WEST OR ABOUT
75 MILES...125 KM...EAST OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA.

http://img59.imageshack.us/img59/7462/trackingfk2.gif

Is that just a center relocation or it is moving off to the NW now?

The NHC's 15Z position was 0.3 deg. too far south, as I explained about 3 pages back. Fay is moving WNW now, certainly north of west. It's about 30-40 miles north of all 12Z model guidance and the NHC 15Z track now. The center should remain inland form here on out.

For those of you in New Orleans, you're getting a real break due to the dry air flowing into Fay's west side. You probably won't get much rain at all and maybe only 15-25 mph wind. And that's if Fay makes it that far west. There are some strong mid and upper-level winds coming out of the west across LA now.

[Steve]

>>I would be surprised if Fay made it west of Pensacola, it just looks like she wants to sit over the NE FL panhandle until that trough lifts her off to the north...I've seen little if any progression to the west all day today.

84.7 at 2am
85.9 at 1pm

So it's moved +/- 53 miles in those 11 hours (5ish mph in statute miles).

Steve

[HurryKane]

I haven't been following the storm too much this morning...catching the Olympics, but, it doesn't look like it is in the GOM to me, but, Channel 6 just broke into the Olympics and said that Fay is back in the GOM. Whatever. It looks like Monday will be the bad day for New Orleans with heavy rain and wind. St. Charles Parish Gov't officials are predicting 6 to 12 inches of rain on Monday to its residents in a special statement put out today. Haven't heard any comments from Orleans Parish. St. Tammany Parish is filling sand bags according to their statement. We're going to go double check all of our storm drains later today.

I went down to Pearlington, MS last summer and fall to help after Katrina. And I bet there getting ready. I hope you guys stay safe in the Big Easy too.

Indeed they are slinging sandbags: Hancock County, cities prepare for storm


An itty bitty band of Fay just caught me mowing the yard, and I'm supposed to fly Monday. If I were a betting gal...

[Javlin]

WX57 using the Mcadias crudely I come up about 30.9 and 86.7 useing pressure readings and sat presentation ENE of Pensacola.I am beginning to wonder if the MGC is going to get any rain even now?

[Derek Ortt]

unfortunately, we may see yet another 15 inches of rain in the already flooded parts of the Panhandle and southern Georgia. The bands are just training now.

Doppler is showing more than 3 inches per hour to the SSE of Tallahassee. That's approachig the Allison/Camielle rain rates

[LAwxrgal]

So is that trough that's currently to the west of Fay going to finally lift her out instead of letting her skirt the coast?

[SCUBAdude]

So Derek what do you think? Is this puppy going to push off to the West or has it stalled and going to drift North? Yesterday the weather service was calling for super high totals of rain here on the Alabama Gulf coast but now I'm not so sure.
SD.

[otowntiger]

Getting pounded again here in Orlando. Call it round 6 if you will. We have had 6 straight days of weather directly influenced by Fay. So far the worst day was thursday, with heavy rain all day and gust to 56, but rain of course is the big deal and for the week I've measured close to 13 inches and its still raining cat and dogs right now! Granted its not the historic proportions recieved in Melbourne earlier this week and of course what the big bend area may be getting now, but it just tells how far reaching and substantial the effects of this storm have been. I dare say this could go down as the wettest week ever in the state of Florida, from top to bottom. The only area that may seem to be a little off the hook is Tampa.

[pojo]

i'm with the planes right now... so have no clue about the effects that Fay will cause in Biloxi.

[srainhoutx]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
322 PM EDT SAT AUG 23 2008

...TROPICAL STORM FAY POUNDING BIG BEND WITH HEAVY RAINFALL...

.SHORT TERM...DISCUSSION WILL BE BRIEF. BAND OF VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL CONTINUES OVER THE FLORIDA BIG BEND THIS AFTERNOON. VERY
LITTLE OVERALL MOVEMENT TO THE BAND EVEN AS THE CENTER OF FAY
MEANDERS SLOWLY WEST OVER THE PANHANDLE...CURRENTLY SOMEWHERE IN
CENTRAL WALTON COUNTY. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS HAVE
EXCEEDED 20 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF JEFFERSON...MADISON...AND
TAYLOR COUNTIES. GROUND TRUTH REPORTS INDICATE THAT THE RADAR
ESTIMATES ARE PRETTY CLOSE TO REALITY. EXPECT HEAVY RAINFALL TO
CONTINUE OVER THE BIG BEND BEFORE HOPEFULLY BEGINNING TO SHIFT TO
THE WEST OVERNIGHT.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php ... TAE&max=61

[Stangfriik]

What is up with this incredibly gigantic feeder band coming through central Florida right now?

All I ask is for some sun like we had for the first half of the day. We have been trying to move into our new home all week long and have yet to get everything. Just now we didn't know these storms were coming because it was so sunny earlier. Now we have 5 drenched boxes and a turtle with a couple more inches in his huge 75 gallon tank lol


http://www.weather.com/weather/map/inte ... ayer=radar

[vbhoutex]

Light wind and currently overcast with no rain about five miles north of the Destin breakpoint. I'm kind of surprised at how little rain we've gotten so far, even though it's been the west side of the storm.

Having just looked at radar, it appears the COC is just about right over you and my Mom or just a little to the NE of you there in Niceville. As broad as the COC is it is hard to tell though. I am starting to think, as some others are posting also, that we have seen the last of Fay's Westward(true west)movement and will now begin to see WNW at a minimum if not NW. I thought this was what was going to happen after I noticed her west side flattening last night and had it pointed out to me that the trough had not lifted out yet.

Looking at another radar I'd place the center between Crestview, Paxton, and Defuniak Springs.

[Stangfriik]

Getting pounded again here in Orlando. Call it round 6 if you will. We have had 6 straight days of weather directly influenced by Fay. So far the worst day was thursday, with heavy rain all day and gust to 56, but rain of course is the big deal and for the week I've measured close to 13 inches and its still raining cat and dogs right now! Granted its not the historic proportions recieved in Melbourne earlier this week and of course what the big bend area may be getting now, but it just tells how far reaching and substantial the effects of this storm have been. I dare say this could go down as the wettest week ever in the state of Florida, from top to bottom. The only area that may seem to be a little off the hook is Tampa.

Hey did you hear that Deltona received 3ft of rain? This is what FOX 35 said. We have been moving from a house there to our new home in DeLand and there were some road closings but I never went down to the south side of Deltona where most of the flooding occurs. There is a little community called Stone Island just south of Deltona that sits on lake Monroe in Sanford. It's full of million dollar houses andprobably multimillion ones also. During 2004, the residents were using canoes for weeks. I'm not suer how much rain they received back then but if they received 3ft of rain, their houses are most definitely flooded right now.

[KWT]

The key now this is back overland is the amount of rainfall we could see, we are going to get an awful amount of rain falling still given its slow motion out of there.

[stormy1970al]

I am south of Fairhope along Mobile Bay. The wind has picked up since late this morning. The water is being blown out of Mobile Bay but I have a feeling as the storm gets closer to us it will change. It is raining lightly off and on but nothing hard. They are suspecting we will get the most severe weather starting at 12am to early in the morning going throughout the day according to the local mets on the radio. People are taking this system seriously around here. People living in low lying area are using today to make preparations. The girls and I just moved the stuff in that could blow around. As of right now it is just a little windy and light rain.

[caribepr]

Getting pounded again here in Orlando. Call it round 6 if you will. We have had 6 straight days of weather directly influenced by Fay. So far the worst day was thursday, with heavy rain all day and gust to 56, but rain of course is the big deal and for the week I've measured close to 13 inches and its still raining cat and dogs right now! Granted its not the historic proportions recieved in Melbourne earlier this week and of course what the big bend area may be getting now, but it just tells how far reaching and substantial the effects of this storm have been. I dare say this could go down as the wettest week ever in the state of Florida, from top to bottom. The only area that may seem to be a little off the hook is Tampa.

grrrrrrr...I was so faked out by the sun and blue skies this morning. My daughter kept saying, it's not over Mom. It is raining harder than any rain so far, inches in hours, along with lightning and thunder. There are times you'd really like your own bed to crawl into until it's over

[Sean in New Orleans]

AT 100 PM CDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
ESTIMATED BY RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS IN THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE NEAR LATITUDE 30.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.9 WEST OR ABOUT
75 MILES...125 KM...EAST OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA.

http://img59.imageshack.us/img59/7462/trackingfk2.gif

Is that just a center relocation or it is moving off to the NW now?

The NHC's 15Z position was 0.3 deg. too far south, as I explained about 3 pages back. Fay is moving WNW now, certainly north of west. It's about 30-40 miles north of all 12Z model guidance and the NHC 15Z track now. The center should remain inland form here on out.

For those of you in New Orleans, you're getting a real break due to the dry air flowing into Fay's west side. You probably won't get much rain at all and maybe only 15-25 mph wind. And that's if Fay makes it that far west. There are some strong mid and upper-level winds coming out of the west across LA now.

Good! I'm fine with no rain and no winds. It suits me just fine if we have no tropical systems for the next 5 years! I've already experienced them in all of their different realms of strength. I already know what they are and don't need any more educating in this life!