ATL Tropical Depression GUSTAV - Model Runs

[ROCK]

I don't know, the upper level winds (from 200 mb to 500 mb) per the 0z GFS are all easterly at 96-120 hours. Not sure what would induce this system, regardless of its organization and strength, poleward. I see it moving on a west-northwest track for several days at least.

agreed, ridging will be intact over the GOM at 120hr however what does it do afterward... does it slided east quickly or slowly or just sits there. Once the EURO intilializes the system ( that is if the system developes) then I would look to clues on where it might go after 120hr.

[Ed Mahmoud]

long range 00z CMC



Texas landfall as a major

Hey Ed, you know we love you man!!.....BTW- didnt you say something that if anther TC hits Tx this year your would run down the street like a 200lb mad man screaming in your underwear? I cant recall that exact wager???

That was Dolly as a major hitting Houston, which, BTW, didn't happen.

[Blown Away]

Are these models realistic moving NW then back SW?
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html

[Meso]

[Wx_Warrior]

If you post a model, make sure it's not from systems past.

[Meso]

What do you mean from a system past? All the model runs are for this system?

[mattpetre]

If you post a model, make sure it's not from systems past.

Ed was just saying the bet about runnning around in his underwear was about Dolly hitting Houston as a major. The CMC really has shown this for 94L, but man it's a long ways off at this point.

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 231847
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1847 UTC SAT AUG 23 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942008) 20080823 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080823 1800 080824 0600 080824 1800 080825 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.0N 61.0W 11.5N 63.3W 12.5N 65.2W 13.3N 67.1W
BAMD 11.0N 61.0W 11.6N 63.9W 12.4N 66.4W 13.1N 68.7W
BAMM 11.0N 61.0W 11.7N 63.8W 12.7N 66.0W 13.4N 68.2W
LBAR 11.0N 61.0W 11.6N 63.7W 12.6N 66.7W 13.7N 69.9W
SHIP 30KTS 38KTS 47KTS 55KTS
DSHP 30KTS 38KTS 47KTS 55KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080825 1800 080826 1800 080827 1800 080828 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.6N 68.8W 15.9N 72.0W 16.6N 75.5W 16.5N 78.9W
BAMD 13.9N 71.0W 14.7N 75.6W 14.6N 80.2W 14.1N 84.4W
BAMM 14.4N 70.3W 15.3N 74.1W 15.5N 78.0W 15.3N 81.8W
LBAR 14.9N 72.9W 17.4N 77.7W 18.5N 81.3W 17.9N 84.6W
SHIP 63KTS 75KTS 81KTS 84KTS
DSHP 63KTS 75KTS 81KTS 84KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.0N LONCUR = 61.0W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 10.8N LONM12 = 58.3W DIRM12 = 275DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 10.6N LONM24 = 53.6W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[Wx_Warrior]

New EURO keeps west

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!72!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2008081312!!/

[Ed Mahmoud]

new Euro also not very enthusiastic about this, a tad bit more enthusiastic about 95L, and somewhat more enthusiastic about a yet to be numbered disturbance.

The new GFS keeps it very weak and runs it into Nicaragua. This may not be the disturbance you have been looking for.

[hurrican19]

long range 00z CMC



Texas landfall as a major

Hey Ed, you know we love you man!!.....BTW- didnt you say something that if anther TC hits Tx this year your would run down the street like a 200lb mad man screaming in your underwear? I cant recall that exact wager???

That was Dolly as a major hitting Houston, which, BTW, didn't happen.

I don't understand, this has a time stamp of Today, and shows a impact on 9/2/08. Can someone post this same exact image of Dolly from awhile back ago?

[Blown Away]

Are the NOGAPS & HWRF models realistic having 94L going NW towards Hispanola? At 11N/61W I would think this is a W runner to at least 85W?

[DESTRUCTION5]

Are the NOGAPS & HWRF models realistic having 94L going NW towards Hispanola? At 11N/61W I would think this is a W runner to at least 85W?

Good Question Blown...I can't even figure how their Developing anything out of that Cluster @$##...LOL

[cpdaman]

Are the NOGAPS & HWRF models realistic having 94L going NW towards Hispanola? At 11N/61W I would think this is a W runner to at least 85W?

models are initialized wrong , 12.6 / 58.5 now run em' again

[KWT]

Yeah I wonder whether the models would show a little more development if it wasnt't so close to south America. However I think another factor is the fact that as Derek said in another thread ther eis actually some shear evident in the Caribbean now.

[cycloneye]

GFDL likes 94L again.

WHXX04 KWBC 232329
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 94L

INITIAL TIME 18Z AUG 23

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 10.9 61.2 275./13.0
6 11.0 62.3 278./11.2
12 11.4 63.6 287./13.4
18 11.8 64.8 288./12.5
24 12.6 65.9 308./13.0
30 12.9 67.0 284./11.6
36 13.5 68.2 297./12.6
42 14.2 69.5 298./14.4
48 14.7 70.6 297./12.0
54 15.4 71.5 306./11.3
60 15.9 72.5 296./10.3
66 16.6 73.6 300./13.2
72 17.2 74.7 299./12.1
78 17.9 75.6 309./10.9
84 18.3 76.9 289./13.2
90 18.8 78.3 288./13.4
96 19.2 79.2 292./10.2
102 19.5 80.4 287./11.9
108 19.7 81.4 282./ 9.4
114 20.2 82.4 294./ 9.9
120 20.5 83.2 289./ 8.8
126 21.0 84.0 301./ 8.7

[Ivanhater]

Looks like Yucatan Channel

[KWT]

On that heading yep looks like its going through the channel...

Very interesting to see, esp given it decides to start down at the best track center.

[Ivanhater]

On that heading yep looks like its going through the channel...

Very interesting to see, esp given it decides to start down at the best track center.

Anything coming up from the Caribbean through the channel is a path I dont want to see

[perk]

Looks like Yucatan Channel

I concur.