ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[cpdaman]

still west at 7?

from radar estimates it looks like the town of lamont , FL

30 37 83 81

is the jackpot so far with over 14 inches and about 2-3 of those coming in the last hour

[tolakram]

AT 1000 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.6 WEST OR ABOUT 100
MILES...160 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA.

[wxman57]

Fay is definitely sucking in dry air from the west today. Not much to her western side. I haven't been able to find any TS winds in coastal, buoy,and ship obs since last evening. In reality, Fay is likely a TD now, though the NHC is cautiously carrying it as a TS just in case squalls flare up offshore. But Fay is not a wind threat to the Gulf coast. Winds generally are in the 15-25 mph range around Fay. Some pockets of 25-35 mph winds east and southeast of the center.

With dry air continuing to flow into Fay and with wind shear increasing, Fay should continue to weaken over the next few days. Don't look for Fay to be a TS when it moves across southern MS and west of New Orleans. NHC being very overly cautious on that intensity. Can't hurt to have everyone alert to the possibility, but they don't seem to be forecasting the most likely scenario now.

Here's a plot of the latest consensus models. HWRF (HWFI on the graph below) seems to be in its own little world with the past few storms. Still needs a lot of tweaking.

[Frank P]

... really hard to find the center on radar... but now that you know where it is as delinated in the 10am NHC advisory... go to the GOES vis sat loops, find PC, run a 10 frame loop at a fast motion and you can discern where it is.. its moving slowly off to the west... some part of the COC is entering the GOM ATTM...

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Will be interesting to see if she does end up getting squeezed more to the south. There is high pressure to the northwest over ARK and a weak high to her southwest over here in LA.

[Sabanic]

Fay is definitely sucking in dry air from the west today. Not much to her western side. I haven't been able to find any TS winds in coastal, buoy,and ship obs since last evening. In reality, Fay is likely a TD now, though the NHC is cautiously carrying it as a TS just in case squalls flare up offshore. But Fay is not a wind threat to the Gulf coast. Winds generally are in the 15-25 mph range around Fay. Some pockets of 25-35 mph winds east and southeast of the center.

With dry air continuing to flow into Fay and with wind shear increasing, Fay should continue to weaken over the next few days. Don't look for Fay to be a TS when it moves across southern MS and west of New Orleans. NHC being very overly cautious on that intensity. Can't hurt to have everyone alert to the possibility, but they don't seem to be forecasting the most likely scenario now.

Here's a plot of the latest consensus models. HWRF (HWFI on the graph below) seems to be in its own little world with the past few storms. Still needs a lot of tweaking.

Well she'll definitely be coming to my neighborhood based on all the models

[wxman57]

Easy to find the center on a good surface plot. It's NE of Panama City near 30.4N/85.6W. That's 0.3 north of the NHC forecast position for 15Z. No way it's at 30.1N, as you can't have a WNW wind north of the center.

[tallywx]

Fay is definitely sucking in dry air from the west today. Not much to her western side. I haven't been able to find any TS winds in coastal, buoy,and ship obs since last evening. In reality, Fay is likely a TD now, though the NHC is cautiously carrying it as a TS just in case squalls flare up offshore. But Fay is not a wind threat to the Gulf coast. Winds generally are in the 15-25 mph range around Fay. Some pockets of 25-35 mph winds east and southeast of the center.

With dry air continuing to flow into Fay and with wind shear increasing, Fay should continue to weaken over the next few days. Don't look for Fay to be a TS when it moves across southern MS and west of New Orleans. NHC being very overly cautious on that intensity. Can't hurt to have everyone alert to the possibility, but they don't seem to be forecasting the most likely scenario now.

Here's a plot of the latest consensus models. HWRF (HWFI on the graph below) seems to be in its own little world with the past few storms. Still needs a lot of tweaking.

but of course, it might be that dry air entrainment that is enhancing rainfall rates in her eastern semicircle, like the current 6 inches/hour we're seeing in that squall east of Tallahassee. much like a "dryline", it's creating extra boundary lift. so this is in fact a BAD development from the perspective of rainfall intensity for those who have flooding concerns. it might also enhance the tornado risk.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

wxman, isn't the trough and ul over north LA supposed to weaken and lift out today allowing high presure to build back in. I thought I read that last night.

[wxman57]

wxman, isn't the trough and ul over north LA supposed to weaken and lift out today allowing high presure to build back in. I thought I read that last night.

Looking at that jet of dry air moving into Fay on WV loops, there may not be much left of Fay in 24 hours.

[Frank P]

Easy to find the center on a good surface plot. It's NE of Panama City near 30.4N/85.6W. That's 0.3 north of the NHC forecast position for 15Z. No way it's at 30.1N, as you can't have a WNW wind north of the center.

Boy that's interesting wxman57

Why the discrepancy between your center and what the NHC is claiming as the center.. don't they have the same info as you? And if the center location per the NHC is not right, what about direction and forward speed?

Could they just be pinpointing the lowest pressure and claiming it to be the center.. just guessing on my part..

[Stormavoider]

Question: How long could NOLA levies handle 4-5"/hour rainfall rates?

[wxman57]

Boy that's interesting wxman57

Why the discrepancy between your center and what the NHC is claiming as the center.. don't they have the same info as you? And if the center location per the NHC is not right, what about direction and forward speed?

Could they just be pinpointing the lowest pressure and claiming it to be the center.. just guessing on my part..

That 15Z position is a forecast position from 12Z. Clearly, Fay moved north of their forecast position. They obviously didn't think it was that big a deal to make them re-run the advisory with the more northerly actual location. Lowest pressure is clearly north of Panama City, well inland. Making an advisory isn't an instantaneous process. To make the 0.2 to 0.3 north adjustment may have made the advisory late. So they opted to just run with their earlier estimate of the position for 15Z.

[burasgal01]

wxman57, If Fay may fall apart in 24, will there still be the amount of rainfall they are forecasting right now for NOLA are north.

[Frank P]

Boy that's interesting wxman57

Why the discrepancy between your center and what the NHC is claiming as the center.. don't they have the same info as you? And if the center location per the NHC is not right, what about direction and forward speed?

Could they just be pinpointing the lowest pressure and claiming it to be the center.. just guessing on my part..

That 15Z position is a forecast position from 12Z. Clearly, Fay moved north of their forecast position. They obviously didn't think it was that big a deal to make them re-run the advisory with the more northerly actual location. Lowest pressure is clearly north of Panama City, well inland. Making an advisory isn't an instantaneous process. To make the 0.2 to 0.3 north adjustment may have made the advisory late. So they opted to just run with their earlier estimate of the position for 15Z.

Thanks wxman57... so in your opinion with the COC basically over land this this is pretty much a done deal except for the rain issues? and TS condition should not be an issue along the MS Gulf Coast? if so it certainly is OK with me...

[caribepr]

We woke up to the SUN!!!!! Blue sky and lots of fast moving clouds, maybe the typical summer shower later on, but for now, all good. Hope the rest affected by Fay get the rain they need and no more.

[weunice]

Question: How long could NOLA levies handle 4-5"/hour rainfall rates?

South Louisiana gets tons of rain. High rain rates are not everyday things but not uncommon. Baton Rouge got something like 8 inches in a few hours from an isolated tstorm several months back. It was unreal. Rainfall rates aren't gong to tax the levy system like the surge levels with Katrina did. Not unless the lake gets mysteriously filled with several feet of water along with it. Without the pressure of a surge filling/preventing the lake from releasing the water into the gulf rain should be fine.

Just my 2 "having lived here but not exactly a hydrological engineer" cents.

[stormy1970al]

That is weird....I was typing and all of a sudden my post is gone.

Well it is clouding up here. I am trying to get the girls to get dress so I can go run some errands before the weather moves in here. They are expecting it to get nasty later on tonight. I don't really expect much out of this system as far as winds but the rain is what we are worried about down here. If this system sits over the area and floods us like she did FL it is going to be a mess. I hope people took that aspect of this storm serious. I couldn't tell from where I worked if they were. Didn't seem like they were. Of course I work in a smaller store compare to the big Walmarts we have nearby.

I am off to take pics down at the bay too.

[cpdaman]

Easy to find the center on a good surface plot. It's NE of Panama City near 30.4N/85.6W. That's 0.3 north of the NHC forecast position for 15Z. No way it's at 30.1N, as you can't have a WNW wind north of the center.

completely agree

so much for the 7mph west movement looks like a NNW drift after hitting a wall

[beachlover]

I would appreciate it if one of you with so much knowledge here can tell me what to expect from the winds on the back side here on Cape San Blas. It seems to be more westerly right now and the rain has started back up. Wondering when we will have the worst wave events today and trying to figure out how they'll coincide with the tides, etc. Thanks in advance for any insight you can share!