ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[Shawee]

That low (?) or feature to the west of Fay seems to be flattening out the west side of her. I believe someone mentioned a squeeze play a little while ago, and it sure looks like that! Now what? She possibly slows down yet again? RW

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html

Seen from this angle (turn on the wind and forecast buttons) is seems she will have to go straight through some fairly stiff westerly winds... something almost impossible IMHANPO (my humble and not professional opinion). The western most forecast points have already been overtaken by the push of dry air.

To me she either tracks north much faster, or gets wedged back into the gulf. du west will be atough row to hoe.

Hopefully she gets shunted to our neighbors to the NE that could use the rain!

[Sabanic]

She is moving due west now, and will be in the Gulf very soon.

[tolakram]

[Emmett_Brown]

Fay is getting close to the Gulf once again, and on this due west course will be in as much if not more water than she has had in days.

I would say more water, and hotter water. Plus, the entire S part of the storm will be free of land, and the water is plenty warm, compared to the ATL off of NEFL

[Shawee]

That low (?) or feature to the west of Fay seems to be flattening out the west side of her. I believe someone mentioned a squeeze play a little while ago, and it sure looks like that! Now what? She possibly slows down yet again? RW

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html

Seen from this angle (turn on the wind and forecast buttons) is seems she will have to go straight through some fairly stiff westerly winds... something almost impossible IMHANPO (my humble and not professional opinion). The western most forecast points have already been overtaken by the push of dry air.

To me she either tracks north much faster, or gets wedged back into the gulf. du west will be atough row to hoe.

Hopefully she gets shunted to our neighbors to the NE that could use the rain!

i forgot the third option... extending her stay in the sunshine state, likely in Ivanhaters back yard...

i don't trust her and also see some more swimming for her soon.

[Jason_B]

As Lyons has shown this morning there is a surge of dry air that's keeping Fay in check, which is why the western side of the storm has weakened considerably. Even though it's coming back over warm water I wouldn't expect any strengthening. Fay could mostly be a dry swirl by the time it gets to Mobile/Pensacola area.

[Sabanic]

As Lyons has shown this morning there is a surge of dry air that's keeping Fay in check, which is why the western side of the storm has weakened considerably. Even though it's coming back over warm water I wouldn't expect any strengthening. Fay could mostly be a dry swirl by the time it gets to Mobile/Pensacola area.

Steve Lyons . . . . OK. Glad to see you're back JB.

[Jason_B]

As Lyons has shown this morning there is a surge of dry air that's keeping Fay in check, which is why the western side of the storm has weakened considerably. Even though it's coming back over warm water I wouldn't expect any strengthening. Fay could mostly be a dry swirl by the time it gets to Mobile/Pensacola area.

Steve Lyons . . . . OK. Glad to see you're back JB.

What's wrong with Steve Lyons?

[Sabanic]

Just not that impressed with him JB. He is no John Hope for sure

[Shockwave]

As Lyons has shown this morning there is a surge of dry air that's keeping Fay in check, which is why the western side of the storm has weakened considerably. Even though it's coming back over warm water I wouldn't expect any strengthening. Fay could mostly be a dry swirl by the time it gets to Mobile/Pensacola area.

I just got done looking at the water vapor imagery and I don't see any dry air surging in. There's a dry air slot down in LA/MS is that what's going to affect Fay's development in the Gulf?

[Jason_B]

Just not that impressed with him JB. He is no John Hope for sure

Well nobody is John Hope, but you can clearly see what Lyons is talking about this morning...that wave of dry air you see is diving down right into Fay which is going to make any strengthening hard to do.

[TideJoe]

Doesn't look like she's moving at all right now on radar.

[deltadog03]

Sure, he is no Hope, but Dr. Lyons is very good. That dry air is part of the incoming upper trof.

[HURAKAN]

[cpdaman]

fay meet trough

ULL moving east through louisiana spells the end is near for fay IMO

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

don't want to offend those that fail to see this storm will weaken soon

wether lyons says it or a pro-met or whoever

and yes it still "bears watching" but this ull should be taken as a good thing if you live on the gulf

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html

[cpdaman]

on the flip side the ull may slow fay down and create a lake in tallahasee

or could push her NW

wow up to 4 inch an hour rain totals between tallahasee and perry , fl crikey

[RainWind]

Does anyone see how Fay is developing to the southwest, looks like it maybe pulled or should I say pushed that way! Geez! RW

Not a met and not a forecast!

[Shockwave]

Sure, he is no Hope, but Dr. Lyons is very good. That dry air is part of the incoming upper trof.

I agree, Dr. Lyons is a very good meterologist and he also does a good job of explaining why things happen in a certain way. I really have to give him props for giving reasons on why Fay has gone against all odds.

[cpdaman]

Does anyone see how Fay is developing to the southwest, looks like it maybe pulled or should I say pushed that way! Geez! RW

Not a met and not a forecast!

wouldn't shock me the 500-850 mb charts show a bit of a wall to her west for now

and on the positive for fay upper level divergence is very high just offshore/ meaning lots of rain coming

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8dvg.html

she just can keep going west though if she want to look pretty.

[Stephanie]

Looks like she's bottled up to the west, north and east. I feel for the poor people in the panhandle of Florida that are getting innundated with rain. I do hope that she is able to move northward over the drought stricken areas.