ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[msbee]

looks like all the action is pretty far south
cloudy skies here this morning though.
and there is quite a stiff breeze ( 18MPH) out of the east

[Derek Ortt]

westerly shear ahead in Carib, development chances a little lower than yesterday

[Derek Ortt]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8wxc.GIF

shear about 30KT

[fasterdisaster]

Convection seems to be on the increase this morning. I think we can finally say that this is one to watch.

Land interaction would be a concern for it's development, although I do recall a certain storm (which is my avatar) from four years ago that everyone thought would be hindered by the South American coastline...and we all know how that turned out.

And let's also not forget the fact that Hurricane Emily WAS hindered by South America but in the end it really didn't matter.

[perk]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8wxc.GIF

shear about 30KT

There's also a large area of 10 to 20 knot shear in 94L'S path.

[AtlanticWind]

Looking at the water vapor loop , Shear does not seem to a problem right now and seems and any shear in the eastern carribean seems to be moving west with an upper low.

[AtlanticWind]

Land interaction is going to the problem for thia system if it not gain some lattitude soon.

[cycloneye]

The 12:00 UTC Best Track:

AL, 94, 2008082312, , BEST, 0, 112N, 568W, 25, 1008, LO,

[Emmett_Brown]

Yup... shear is present right now over the E Carribean. 36 hour GFS (for what it's worth) reduces the shear by pulling the tutt NW:

[Sanibel]

Black IR in d-max burst. Think we have our next contender here. If it does survive the shear I think this perch on the Caribbean is deep enough to avoid the weak environment to the north Fay experienced.

Center is near 11N even though convection is centered nearer to 10N. I suppose this will do another Dolly and survive the shear and form further on down the track to the west.

NOT jumping NW like CMC wanted (so far).

[gatorcane]

Yes, this one is a go. I expect the NHC to up their code to red over the next 24-48 hours....movement is just north of west, probably around 280 or so. There is also plenty of moisture available and the shear is progged to be light over the next several days.

It should not be too long before we see code red, as I expected from yesterday....within the next 24-48 hours. My quote above is from yesterday evening and I am forecasting gradual development still.

[cpdaman]

convection has been increasing ........but building WSW not a good sign if you want to develop (movement wise) cause South american isn't that hospitable

close call with land coming up..........my eyes on 95

[Sanibel]

11N and looks to be well enough into development with a slight pull-up ahead to clear South America. I doubt this will be negatively influenced by South America.

[x-y-no]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8wxc.GIF

shear about 30KT

As far south as this thing is, it looks to me like it will miss the worst of it. The 30 knot shear area is centered up over the leeward islands and hasn't made any progress southward in the last day. So it seems to be a matter of how much latitude it gains in the next two days. If it continues more or less on the extrapolated or climatological track, it misses the bad shear. If it goes where the BAMM etc. take it, then it gets into at least 20 knots shear.

[Sanibel]

A glance at that shear map above looks like favorable shear if it tracks WNW through the Caribbean.

[CourierPR]

AccuWeather post this am says that the system has a good environment ahead of it. in which to develop

[lonelymike]

Think we'll go with the pro met on this one.

[perk]

Think we'll go with the pro met on this one.

Which one, Derek is pro wind shear and Deltadog seem to think it won't be a problem.

[Derek Ortt]

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif

WV shows upper level westerlies throughout the entire Caribbean. Even near SA

[Sanibel]

Think we'll go with the pro met on this one.

Myself, I'd be lost on this board without the input from the pro meteorologists. However I think we'll see slow development even with the shear - and eventual cyclone further down the path like Dolly.

I put the center near 11.3N-57.7W and moving, say, 278-80 degrees. Should find a sweet spot and spin in the Caribbean with that convection and the SST's ahead of it.