ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[SunnyThoughts]

I think with 21.5 inches of rain possible over the next 5 days here...Those of us in the panhandle will pay attention a bit longer Matt.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The nhc placed it at 29.8 or .1+ north. So it is not moving west-southwestward. More like 275-280. Its time to turning our attentions to 95L, and maybe keep a eye on 94L.

I think those of us that are in the path will probably stay tuned to Fay a little while longer, esp. with her entering the most open water (beginning in about 6 hours) she has seen since she struck SW Florida days ago.

That depends if it turns back west or even west-southwest a little. If it keeps going west-northwest or just north of due west then it won't strengthen, but will weaken. It is a wait and see.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I think with 21.5 inches of rain possible over the next 5 days here...Those of us in the panhandle will pay attention a bit longer Matt.

Thats a lot of rain

[Nexus]

AT 200 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.7 WEST OR JUST
SOUTHWEST OF CARRABELLE FLORIDA. THIS POSITION IS ALSO ABOUT 20
MILES...30 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA AND ABOUT 45
MILES...70 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA.

http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/? ... re=0&tor=0

[stormy1970al]

The nhc placed it at 29.8 or .1+ north. So it is not moving west-southwestward. More like 275-280. Its time to turning our attentions to 95L, and maybe keep a eye on 94L.

That depends on where you live. Right now I am in the path of Fay and I think my eyes are on her along with a lot of people along the Gulf Coast. She is supposed to dump a lot of rain on the Gulf Coast.

[attallaman]

Which invest coming in behind Fay did Dr. Lyons on TWC say we needed to watch? I remember seeing 3 lined up on his map, he pointed to the middle one but I don't see 3 lined up here on Storm2k's map. Just curious which is the next invest we need to be watching? I'm in Biloxi, can I expect to receive major rains from Fay if she stays on her present track? Will I receive any wind?

[Deb321]

good luck everyone in Fay's path. Hopefully she won't stall and will just go away soon. We still have gusty wind and just had a pretty good downpour from Fay here in SE Georgia.

[AL Chili Pepper]

That trough to the west seems to have done a number on Fay's outflow and is now working on the inner convective bands. That's gotta hurt. Can't wait to see what it looks like when I get up....

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... uration=10

[Ad Novoxium]

Landfall number 7. 8 may become a possibility. WHAT THE HECK?!? How many storms have ever made this many landfalls?

000
WTNT41 KNHC 230858
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 31
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
500 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2008

RADAR AND SURFACE DATA INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF FAY MADE LANDFALL
ABOUT 0600 UTC JUST SOUTHWEST OF CARRABELLE FLORIDA. THE LATEST
IMAGERY FROM THE WSR-88D IN TALLAHASSEE SHOWS A DECREASE IN
CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER...AND AN INCREASE ON CONVECTION BANDING
AWAY FROM THE CENTER IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THERE ARE NO
RECENT OBSERVATIONS OF SUSTAINED TROPICAL-STORM FORCE WINDS FROM
EITHER LAND OR MARINE STATIONS...SO THE INTENSITY IS A LITTLE
UNCERTAIN. BASED MAINLY ON DOPPLER WIND VELOCITIES...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO 40 KT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT DOPPLER
WINDS OF NEAR 65 KT HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OVER LAND TO THE NORTH OF
THE CENTER...BUT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THESE WINDS ARE NOT
MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE AT THIS TIME.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT ERRATIC 275/6...AS THE CENTER
OCCASIONALLY SURGES AHEAD FOLLOWED BY PERIODS OF LITTLE MOVEMENT.
FAY REMAINS SOUTH OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THIS RIDGE SHOULD WEAKEN
AFTER 24-48 HR AS A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN
UNITED STATES. AT THE SAME TIME...A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP NEAR OR OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS
EVOLUTION SHOULD STEER FAY WESTWARD FOR 48-72 HR...THEN STEER THE
CYCLONE SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD. WHILE THE TRACK GUIDANCE GENERALLY
AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...AFTER 48 HR THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE
SPREAD IN THE SPEED OF THE NORTHEAST MOVEMENT. THE GFS AND ECMWF
ARE THE FASTEST WITH THIS MOTION...WHILE THE HWRF...WHICH FORECASTS
FAY TO MAKE A LOOP OVER SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...IS THE SLOWEST.
THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH
72 HR...THEN CALLS FOR A MOTION SLIGHTLY FASTER AND TO THE RIGHT OF
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST IS ON THE
LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND SLOWER THAN THE MODEL
CONSENSUS.

FAY WILL REMAIN IN A GENERALLY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WIND
ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT 48-72 HR...SO THE INTENSITY WILL BE
CONTROLLED MAINLY BY HOW MUCH LAND THE STORM ENCOUNTERS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...ENOUGH OF THE CIRCULATION WILL BE OVER WATER FOR
THE NEXT 72 HR TO MAINTAIN FAY AS A TROPICAL STORM...AND THIS IS
REFLECTED IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST. THERE IS A CHANCE THE STORM
COULD BE STRONGER THAN FORECAST IF IT GOES SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
TRACK. AFTER 72 HR...FAY SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH INLAND AND IN ENOUGH
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR TO CAUSE IT TO DECAY TO A REMNANT LOW.

REGARDLESS OF ITS EXACT TRACK...FAY WILL BE MOVING RATHER SLOWLY
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...POSING A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLOOD HAZARD TO A VERY LARGE AREA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 23/0900Z 29.9N 84.9W 40 KT...INLAND
12HR VT 23/1800Z 30.0N 86.0W 40 KT...OVER WATER
24HR VT 24/0600Z 30.3N 87.5W 40 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 24/1800Z 30.5N 89.1W 40 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 25/0600Z 30.5N 90.4W 35 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 26/0600Z 30.5N 91.0W 30 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 27/0600Z 32.1N 90.5W 25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 28/0600Z 33.5N 89.5W 20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Chacor]

29% chance of TS-force winds in New Orleans over the next five days.

Code: Select all

FONT11 KNHC 230835
PWSAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  31             
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062008               
0900 UTC SAT AUG 23 2008                                           

AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
29.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR.                                         

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                 
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME     


I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE               

CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.             
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     


      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -     

VALID TIME   18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       1       8      11      17      31      45      59
TROP DEPRESSION 35      41      27      33      28      28      22
TROPICAL STORM  63      49      57      44      35      24      16
HURRICANE        2       2       5       6       6       3       2
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1        1       2       4       5       5       2       2
HUR CAT 2        X       X       1       1       1       1       X
HUR CAT 3        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
HUR CAT 4        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   40KT    40KT    40KT    35KT    30KT    25KT    20KT


II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING           
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)         
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)     

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                 
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                 


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - - 

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM
  TIME       06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO 
             18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION       KT                                                   

ATLANTA GA     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)

CEDAR KEY FL   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)

TALLAHASSEE FL 34  1   X( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)

ST MARKS FL    34  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)

APALACHICOLA   34 70   1(71)   1(72)   X(72)   X(72)   X(72)   1(73)
APALACHICOLA   50  2   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

GFMX 290N 850W 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)

PANAMA CITY FL 34 47   4(51)   1(52)   1(53)   1(54)   X(54)   X(54)
PANAMA CITY FL 50  4   X( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

COLUMBUS GA    34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)

MONTGOMERY AL  34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   2( 6)   2( 8)   1( 9)

PENSACOLA FL   34  2  19(21)   8(29)   2(31)   2(33)   1(34)   X(34)
PENSACOLA FL   50  X   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
PENSACOLA FL   64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

GFMX 290N 870W 34  6  11(17)   4(21)   1(22)   2(24)   2(26)   1(27)
GFMX 290N 870W 50  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   1( 5)

MOBILE AL      34  X   8( 8)  16(24)   3(27)   3(30)   2(32)   1(33)
MOBILE AL      50  X   2( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)   1( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)
MOBILE AL      64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)

GULFPORT MS    34  X   5( 5)  19(24)   7(31)   2(33)   3(36)   X(36)
GULFPORT MS    50  X   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)   2( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)
GULFPORT MS    64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)

BURAS LA       34  X   2( 2)  10(12)   6(18)   3(21)   6(27)   X(27)
BURAS LA       50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   2( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)
BURAS LA       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)

GFMX 280N 890W 34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   4( 7)   4(11)   5(16)   X(16)
GFMX 280N 890W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)

JACKSON MS     34  X   X( X)   6( 6)   6(12)   4(16)   5(21)   X(21)
JACKSON MS     50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)

NEW ORLEANS LA 34  X   1( 1)  10(11)  10(21)   4(25)   4(29)   X(29)
NEW ORLEANS LA 50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   2( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)
NEW ORLEANS LA 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)

GFMX 280N 910W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   5(10)   4(14)   1(15)
GFMX 280N 910W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
GFMX 280N 910W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

BATON ROUGE LA 34  X   X( X)   7( 7)   9(16)   5(21)   5(26)   1(27)
BATON ROUGE LA 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)
BATON ROUGE LA 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)

NEW IBERIA LA  34  X   X( X)   4( 4)   7(11)   5(16)   6(22)   1(23)
NEW IBERIA LA  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
NEW IBERIA LA  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

GFMX 280N 930W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   4( 6)   6(12)   1(13)

SHREVEPORT LA  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)   4(10)   X(10)

PORT ARTHUR TX 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   5( 8)   4(12)   1(13)

GALVESTON TX   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   3( 8)   1( 9)

HOUSTON TX     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   3( 7)   1( 8)

FREEPORT TX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)

GFMX 280N 950W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)

PORT O CONNOR  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)

GFMX 270N 960W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)

$$                                                                 
FORECASTER BEVEN     

[mpic]

I'm assuming that Fay has broken records for the "longest-staying" storm in Florida?

[tailgater]

She looks rather weak this morning and after looking at the water vapor loop I doubt we will be able to track her center in next 24 to 36 hours. Looks like squeeze play to me.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html

[MetsIslesNoles]

She looks rather weak this morning and after looking at the water vapor loop I doubt we will be able to track her center in next 24 to 36 hours. Looks like squeeze play to me.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html

She might be weak, but she has a ton of rain in her... Tally is getting drenched this AM, looks like it'll be this way most of the day too.

[Sabanic]

She looks rather weak this morning and after looking at the water vapor loop I doubt we will be able to track her center in next 24 to 36 hours. Looks like squeeze play to me.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html

Actually once she moves back into the gulf I wouldn't be surprised to see her intensify slightly ( 50-55 ) again. Very warm water, and favorable conditions for the next 36 hours or so.

[xironman]

NHC 8 am position has her about to go over water again. If she goes due west she could end up close to forty miles off shore for a while.

[Sabanic]

NHC 8 am position has her about to go over water again. If she goes due west she could end up close to forty miles off shore for a while.

That's what I am talking about. Have this weird feeling that she isn't done yet.

[RainWind]

That low (?) or feature to the west of Fay seems to be flattening out the west side of her. I believe someone mentioned a squeeze play a little while ago, and it sure looks like that! Now what? She possibly slows down yet again? RW

[Frank P]

Last week I posted that these systems always throw in some surprises throughout the process... the board was filled with posts arguing over paths she would take either to the east coast or west coast or NGOM, who would be right... many felt she would never get to the east coast.. as many felt it would never get back to the GOM... heck looks like everybody was to some degree both right and wrong.. She did the west coast, ran up the center of the state of FL, then the east coast, and now the NGOM perhaps..

Who would have expected Fay to intensify over land as she initially went inland over SW FL, don’t recall anyone posting that, then she camped on the FL central east coast for days just dumping tons of water... now the NGOM is under a TS warning... never would have expected that either looking back a week.. And perhaps she is not finished just yet... that's why you never say never with these systems..

Hopefully she's finished with her surprises and just rains herself out without causing any significant problems along the NGOM…

[RainWind]

Frank P, I believe this goofy storm has made us all weary, and there is a possibility of another Gulf coast landfall from that other storm, so I pray that they both dissipate quickly and give us all a well-deserved rest from sitting at the computer for hours on end! RW

[Sabanic]

Fay is getting close to the Gulf once again, and on this due west course will be in as much if not more water than she has had in days.