ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[Dean4Storms]

Makes for a lovely weekend...........


FLZ002-004-006-231230-
COASTAL ESCAMBIA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PENSACOLA...MILTON.....
FORT WALTON BEACH
421 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING...

.TONIGHT...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. SHOWERS LIKELY IN
THE EVENING...THEN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID 70S. NORTH WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH
BECOMING 25 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
CHANCE OF RAIN 90 PERCENT.
.SATURDAY...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. NORTH WINDS 30 TO
35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR
100 PERCENT.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL. LOWS IN THE MID 70S. EAST WINDS 25 TO
35 MPH BECOMING SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH. CHANCE
OF RAIN 80 PERCENT.
.SUNDAY...WINDY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
80S. SOUTH WINDS 30 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH. CHANCE OF
RAIN 90 PERCENT.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY...BREEZY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL.
LOWS IN THE MID 70S. SOUTH WINDS 20 TO 25 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH
IN THE EVENING. CHANCE OF RAIN 60 PERCENT.
.MONDAY...CLOUDY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 80S. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT.

[jenmrk]

I just went outside and the rumbling has stopped, I have no idea what it was. I am no where near the base, It is nice and breezy though. I have no idea what it could have been.

[Sabanic]

Makes for a lovely weekend...........


FLZ002-004-006-231230-
COASTAL ESCAMBIA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PENSACOLA...MILTON.....
FORT WALTON BEACH
421 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING...

.TONIGHT...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. SHOWERS LIKELY IN
THE EVENING...THEN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID 70S. NORTH WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH
BECOMING 25 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
CHANCE OF RAIN 90 PERCENT.
.SATURDAY...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. NORTH WINDS 30 TO
35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR
100 PERCENT.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL. LOWS IN THE MID 70S. EAST WINDS 25 TO
35 MPH BECOMING SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH. CHANCE
OF RAIN 80 PERCENT.
.SUNDAY...WINDY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
80S. SOUTH WINDS 30 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH. CHANCE OF
RAIN 90 PERCENT.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY...BREEZY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL.
LOWS IN THE MID 70S. SOUTH WINDS 20 TO 25 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH
IN THE EVENING. CHANCE OF RAIN 60 PERCENT.
.MONDAY...CLOUDY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 80S. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT.

That SUCKS !!!

[Dean4Storms]

On radar anyway it appears that the MLC and LLC are coming together?

[SunnyThoughts]

Jenmrk, Heard from another daughter over on Olive Road. She said It was loud and like a rolling thunder. Said she hasn't heard it in the last half hour or so now. Really strange.

[IvanSurvivor]

Jenmrk, Heard from another daughter over on Olive Road. She said It was loud and like a rolling thunder. Said she hasn't heard it in the last half hour or so now. Really strange.

Just outside again...rumbles have stopped. Gusts have picked up, but I am very close to the water.

[Sabanic]

Goodnight everyone. Hope you all have a safe evening, and I'll see ya tomorrow.

Peace Out & God Bless

[jenmrk]

They have stopped here also. went outside and it is very nice and breezy. That is very strange.

[SoupBone]

So now that Fay might be coming to Louisiana no one wants to talk about her? LOL J/K

[boogiefrizz]

I think I know what is causing the mysterious "thunder" of Pensacola. The Pelicans must have had a game tonight and there were massive amounts of fireworks a little while ago. I heard the loud rumbling and went outside and saw a beautiful fireworks show. I live off of N. Davis. Lots of loud booms. I'm pretty sure this is what all you Pcola folk heard.

[cpdaman]

Anyone know why the convection seems to be thinning as the bands move offshore from the north. I would have thought that the water would have given them a boost. Also it seems to me that the main band that was over the Atlantic for the past few days is now passing over the whole length if Florida and maybe robbing her of moisture. Do any of you think that once it gets over the Gulf this thing might get cranked up?
SD

yes i noticed this and posted about it a while ago, it will be interesting to see what happens as there will be less convection wrapping around her (possibly less rain) http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html for awhile since the atlantic inflow has been cut off, you can see the gulf southerly inflow increasing and this will be one of the keys to her intensity (if this can pick up i.e deep reds and be consistent) saturday IMO since shear should be relatively light at least during the first part of the day

[IvanSurvivor]

I think I know what is causing the mysterious "thunder" of Pensacola. The Pelicans must have had a game tonight and there were massive amounts of fireworks a little while ago. I heard the loud rumbling and went outside and saw a beautiful fireworks show. I live off of N. Davis. Lots of loud booms. I'm pretty sure this is what all you Pcola folk heard.

That makes sense...they dedicated the field tonight I think. Mystery solved!

[Sean in New Orleans]

So now that Fay might be coming to Louisiana no one wants to talk about her? LOL J/K

It could wind up in your backyard SoupBone. This has been one wild storm. I should have never even guessed where this one was heading, but, I don't feel too bad. The NHC and all of the models couldn't guess either!!!

[JonathanBelles]

We have Fay-tigue...you can have her!

[SoupBone]

So now that Fay might be coming to Louisiana no one wants to talk about her? LOL J/K

It could wind up in your backyard SoupBone. This has been one wild storm. I should have never even guessed where this one was heading, but, I don't feel too bad. The NHC and all of the models couldn't guess either!!!

The NHC nailed her for the most part. I just think that she was one of these strange systems that has so much going on around her it was hard to predict. Honestly if the track doesn't change (which I'm pretty sure it will..LOL) we are saturated here from afternoon showers pretty much every day. I hope she doesn't do what she did to Florida in terms of rainfall. BTW thanks for your predictions...I always enjoy learning here.

[Sean in New Orleans]

I'm a little concerned at how far South the center is right now as it trucks due West. Unless things change, which God knows could with this system, I'm afraid Fay may get a pretty good drink of water by tomorrow AM.

[cpdaman]

638 pages, what are the records again.

also the page total is now more impressive because we have all the seperate thread to talk about the models for her now, which i think is a new phenomena that othewise would have added to this thread (or i could be wrong)

fay's bathing still, perhaps she got over her fear of the water.

also no new satelite images till about 230-245, so watch that radar

[bayoubebe]

So now that Fay might be coming to Louisiana no one wants to talk about her? LOL J/K

IF it hits B.R. with still some punch to it, any clues as to what LSU will do?
I have a relative who started her first semester there, am just curious as how they handle storms over there.
It's mostly been the southern coast by us in NOLA that we kept an eye on, in the past.
Tomorrow morning will be interesting to see where Fay is and how she has strenghtened or weakened.
I'm guess that's why we have an 80% chance of rain tomorrow night.

[RL3AO]

638 pages, what are the records again.

also the page total is now more impressive because we have all the seperate thread to talk about the models for her now, which i think is a new phenomena that othewise would have added to this thread (or i could be wrong)

fay's bathing still, perhaps she got over her fear of the water.

also no new satelite images till about 230-245, so watch that radar

It was 583.


And yes the new sat images should be in shortly.

[RainWind]

SoupBone, sure am hoping that the new NHC path does not pan out for our area! The Floridians must be super tired of this storm. This storm does not give up easily and they are feeling the brunt of it at this point. Slow and steady she goes, where she stops, nobody knows! RW