ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[IvanSurvivor]

Is anyone else in Pensacola hearing the very loud constant rumbles of thunder outside, we are off of 9 mile rd. It just started about 5 mins ago. I thought we were a few hours away from Faye at this point.

I was wondering if that was thunder-just stepped outside for a minute...We're right at the front gate of NAS.

[fwbbreeze]

Is anyone else in Pensacola hearing the very loud constant rumbles of thunder outside, we are off of 9 mile rd. It just started about 5 mins ago. I thought we were a few hours away from Faye at this point.

there is absolutely nothing on radar to indicate T-storms in Pcola. Not sure what you are hearing. Perhaps aircraft from Pensacola NAS?

[twister]

BTW, if I am correct, and the center is on the Northwest corner of the clear area, then it is getting a nice band of convection on its Northern edge.

I dont know Ed, if you look at radar you can see you large "eye" contracting...should keep getting smaller and smaller, it already is strengthening, went up to 50 mph..we'll see...

I agree Ivanhater. COC appears to be getting tighter feeding off the warm GoM.

[IvanSurvivor]

Is anyone else in Pensacola hearing the very loud constant rumbles of thunder outside, we are off of 9 mile rd. It just started about 5 mins ago. I thought we were a few hours away from Faye at this point.

there is absolutely nothing on radar to indicate T-storms in Pcola. Not sure what you are hearing. Perhaps aircraft from Pensacola NAS?

That's what I thought at first, but it's not take off or landing noise...it's booms, one after the other. 9 Mile Rd. is a good distance from here...probably 15-20 mile north. Strange.

[LAwxrgal]

I've been lurking over the past few days. I am definitely sick of Fay, and she's headed my way. This is definitely among the craziest storms I've ever seen, period. Question, has Fay done enough in Florida and Hispaniola to get herself retired -- only the 2nd tropical storm (Allison) to get that 'dubious' distinction?

[Wthrman13]

Not to beat a dead horse, but I think the term "eye" is thrown around rather loosely, even by many pro mets (someone mentioned TWC a bit ago). The problem is, like so many things (my favorite example is the changing definition of a planet), there is no sharp black-and-white dividing line between when something is an eye, and when something isn't, in many cases. I will say this, eyes in hurricanes and tropical storms (yes, tropical storms do sometimes have eyes) are typically considered to be at least partially surrounded by an eyewall of enhanced convection that contains a radius of relatively stronger winds than on either side of it (i.e. the RMW). In the case of Fay, currently, at least from radar observations (I haven't looked at recon recently), the RMW looks to be pretty far out from the center, a good 80 miles or so in diameter. In this regard, the whole clear area seen on current radar from KTLH could be considered an "eye", but it's so disorganized that I wouldn't go that far. Conservation of angular momentum would dictate that in order for a true eye to form in this case, the current RMW would have to contract inwards due to a tightening of the pressure gradient, which would come about if the central pressure were to drop. Right now the current large-scale circulation associated with the storm is in a pretty balanced state and would require a rapid drop in central pressure for it to do this. I don't see this happening right now.

By the way, in my opinion the "eye-like feature" seen when Fay was crossing the FL peninsula the first time was indeed a true eye. It had a nearly complete ring of enhanced convection surrounding it during a good portion of its trek across FL, and Doppler radar velocities confirmed that there was a RMW co-located with the eyewall.

[fwbbreeze]

Is anyone else in Pensacola hearing the very loud constant rumbles of thunder outside, we are off of 9 mile rd. It just started about 5 mins ago. I thought we were a few hours away from Faye at this point.

there is absolutely nothing on radar to indicate T-storms in Pcola. Not sure what you are hearing. Perhaps aircraft from Pensacola NAS?

That's what I thought at first, but it's not take off or landing noise...it's booms, one after the other. 9 Mile Rd. is a good distance from here...probably 15-20 mile north. Strange.

very strange indeed, there are no military bombing ranges in that vacinity and even if their were I doubt they would be flying tonight. I know EGLIN AFB was moving some planes around this afternoon, but over here in FWB I havent heard plane noise for a few hours

[Janie2006]

Strange. I'm not sure what those "booms" might be, but WSR-88D isn't picking up anything near Pensacola. The closest area of convection is over Defuniak Springs.

[SunnyThoughts]

My daughter called a few minutes ago about hearing thunder. She's on 9 mile road also...IM in Pace and didn't hear anything. Didn't see any storms either in the area...not until you get to Panama City to the East anyway.

[RainWind]

Ok, 3 days out Fay is in our area as a depression. Right now, I don't see anything in her immediate future to move it north or south, slowly west for now seems to be the plan. Looks like she is planning to tour the northern gulf coast! Don't it make you tired just thinking about it! I pray north Florida stays safe tonight, RW

This is not a forecast and I am not a met (and I have a great respect for those of you who are mets and appreciate all your insight this past week!)

[Ivanhater]

I havnt heard any thunder

[Sabanic]

On satellite though it looks like you guys could possibly be hearing some thunder from Fay. Isn't she starting to reach the P.C.B. area about now?

[senorpepr]

Just a friendly reminder for everyone about regulating the attitudes. I don't want things to get out of hand. It looks like things have simmered down, but I just wanted to put the warning out there.


Take a break and look at Tropical Depression Nuri (that just made landfall near Hong Kong) or something.

[twister]

Ok, 3 days out Fay is in our area as a depression. Right now, I don't see anything in her immediate future to move it north or south, slowly west for now seems to be the plan. Looks like she is planning to tour the northern gulf coast! Don't it make you tired just thinking about it! I pray north Florida stays safe tonight, RW

This is not a forecast and I am not a met (and I have a great respect for those of you who are mets and appreciate all your insight this past week!)

I'm not a met either, but experience tells me not to under estimate Fay. She may have another surprise up her sleeve.

[Steve]

Thanks 13. Also, you have never treated anyone poorly on this forum.

What I saw looked like an interaction with land. Zoomed in radar gave the appearance that most of the storm was turning around that point but I agree that it wasn't an eye and was probably a transient feature in the sytem. Does look like it sparked an inner band of intense, heavier convection.

Steve

[Sanibel]

Maybe thunder is carried through a weird Karst formation cave system that comes out near your area? Like long wave rumbles that carry through an underground feature that funnels them toward you?

[fwbbreeze]

On satellite though it looks like you guys could possibly be hearing some thunder from Fay. Isn't she starting to reach the P.C.B. area about now?

Idont htink that is it Sabanic, I am further East in Fort Walton Beach and I have neard nothing. In fact I just got back from the beach area and have seen no lightnng. ALso winds are sustained I would guess around 20 mph on the bay side with an off shore flow obviously

[Agua]

I *think* the center is making its 4th FL landfall at this moment.

[Sabanic]

What does concern me somewhat is that once she passes APP-COLA, and assuming she stays on a due west course she will have more water around her than at any time since she first made landfall on the FLA-PENS.

[Steve]

QPF back up over 20" for 5 day south Alabama/west Florida total:

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i00.gif