ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[Sanibel]

Fay opened that little eye after touching Gulf water.

[Ptarmigan]

Fay looks quite impressive for a weak tropical storm. Looks better than some hurricanes I have seen. It is the Energizer Bunny of tropical storms. It keeps going and going and going..................

[LAwxrgal]

I am so sick of this storm, and what's worse is my local station is cutting into programming about every 20 minutes or so just to give 'updates.'

Die Fay Die! You've caused enough problems in Florida. Just die.

[AL Chili Pepper]

Help an old man here. Is the west edge of the precipitation field flattening out a little or are my eyes too tired? If it is flattening out, what is Fay running up against?

A little TUTT feature over AR...

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tropical/satpix ... v_loop.php

Derek caught it:

Fay has emerged into the NE Gulf of Mexico based upon aircraft and radar data. Peak flight level winds were 57KT at 850mb. Therefore, the initial intensity is set to 45KT. It could be a little higher as there was an SFMR wind of 53KT. The outflow is starting to flatten to the west due to an approaching trough. Therefore, after slight weakening over landf tonight, no re-intensification is indicated if it moves back over the water tomorrow.

[Dean4Storms]

If Fay makes it due west over Appycola and Cape San Blas and then out into the Gulf the coastline retreats a good bit WNW from there to where she could find herself 30-50 miles offshore if no deviations to the WNW, things would get very interesting here for the home team in Destin.

[vbhoutex]

Help an old man here. Is the west edge of the precipitation field flattening out a little or are my eyes too tired? If it is flattening out, what is Fay running up against?

A little TUTT feature over AR...

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tropical/satpix ... v_loop.php

Thanks for the responses. I am wondering now, after looking at this loop, if Fay is going to hug the coast as much as they think or begin a slow turn more towards the WNW. I thought the trouogh had lifted out more than it has.

[Dean4Storms]

Help an old man here. Is the west edge of the precipitation field flattening out a little or are my eyes too tired? If it is flattening out, what is Fay running up against?

A little TUTT feature over AR...

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tropical/satpix ... v_loop.php

Derek caught it:

Fay has emerged into the NE Gulf of Mexico based upon aircraft and radar data. Peak flight level winds were 57KT at 850mb. Therefore, the initial intensity is set to 45KT. It could be a little higher as there was an SFMR wind of 53KT. The outflow is starting to flatten to the west due to an approaching trough. Therefore, after slight weakening over landf tonight, no re-intensification is indicated if it moves back over the water tomorrow.

I would disagree with Derek on that one. The trough is progged to weaken as the energy lifts on northward tonight last I heard.

[Over my head]

Could the eye stay over water and keep strengthening even with only the upper portion being over land if she keeps on the west heading? Just skim across that little piece of land by the skin of her teeth.

She strengthened over Fla to 65 mph. Given her track record, who knows what Fay will do.

You are right she sure did. Thanks for the response. So we wait and see.



Amazing how she just flattened out on the west side.

[srainhoutx]

Help an old man here. Is the west edge of the precipitation field flattening out a little or are my eyes too tired? If it is flattening out, what is Fay running up against?

A little TUTT feature over AR...

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tropical/satpix ... v_loop.php

Thanks for the responses. I am wondering now, after looking at this loop, if Fay is going to hug the coast as much as they think or begin a slow turn more towards the WNW. I thought the trouogh had lifted out more than it has.

There actually were some "hints" last night that this was going to happen. T storms over E OK were moving S. I think it will take a little time for the lower levels to respond near Fay and will most likely increase chances for a stall near AL/FL border IMHO.

[Over my head]

A little TUTT feature over AR...

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tropical/satpix ... v_loop.php

Derek caught it:

Fay has emerged into the NE Gulf of Mexico based upon aircraft and radar data. Peak flight level winds were 57KT at 850mb. Therefore, the initial intensity is set to 45KT. It could be a little higher as there was an SFMR wind of 53KT. The outflow is starting to flatten to the west due to an approaching trough. Therefore, after slight weakening over landf tonight, no re-intensification is indicated if it moves back over the water tomorrow.

I would disagree with Derek on that one. The trough is progged to weaken as the energy lifts on northward tonight last I heard.

Then maybe she will follow north as it eases northward just like she is scheduled to do now that she feels the resistance. Lord I hope so.

[srainhoutx]

Help an old man here. Is the west edge of the precipitation field flattening out a little or are my eyes too tired? If it is flattening out, what is Fay running up against?

A little TUTT feature over AR...

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tropical/satpix ... v_loop.php

Thanks for the responses. I am wondering now, after looking at this loop, if Fay is going to hug the coast as much as they think or begin a slow turn more towards the WNW. I thought the trouogh had lifted out more than it has.

There actually were some "hints" last night that this was going to happen. T storms over E OK were moving S. I think it will take a little time for the lower levels to respond near Fay and will most likely increase chances for a stall near AL/FL border IMHO.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Dean4Storms]

My Davis Vantage Pro site for anyone interested.......


http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstat ... =KFLMIRAM6

[Wthrman13]

I don't see any sort of eye with Fay right now. It did appear to be forming a large one when it was offshore in the Atlantic, but that dissipated once it moved back on shore. What you are seeing now is a storm that has a large radius of maximum winds, with the winds inward from that point rotating nearly in solid body rotation, like a phonograph record (note that the showers near the center are rotating more slowly than those in the intense rainbands further out). Ever since the old, tight inner core it had the first time over FL spun down, it's had this same basic structure. It really won't get an inner core again unless it is able to stay out over the Gulf long enough for the current large RMW to contract inwards and form a bonafide eye, like it was trying to do over the Atlantic.

[crazycajuncane]

If these models don't amuse you... I don't know what would!



I like the loop on the HWRF. I would love to compare all the models that this storm has drawn up.

[Steve]

>>Fay opened that little eye after touching Gulf water.

I saw that.
------------------------
Also leaning toward agreeing with Dean on the strength of that feature.

Steve

[Alacane2]

AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE GULF
COAST OF FLORIDA FROM ARIPEKA NORTHWARD TO SUWANEE RIVER HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED...AND THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM WEST OF
DESTIN TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT
FOR THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST FROM SUWANEE RIVER FLORIDA WESTWARD
TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 1100 PM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ISSUED FROM WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
THIS WATCH DOES NOT INCLUDE LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN OR THE CITY OF NEW
ORLEANS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

[cycloneye]

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND WSR-88D
VELOCITIES INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE SLIGHTLY
INCREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND FAY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A TROPICAL STORM INTO SUNDAY.

[Dean4Storms]

I think that push westward of the Warnings and Watches comes due to the fact that she could stay well enough offshore to maintain or even slightly strengthen. She may not ever get an inner core of convection but could slowly drop pressure causing tighter pressure gradients.

[cpdaman]

lets see steve lyons and derek ortt say increasing shear for fay (sw shear that is)

you can see her encroaching on some shear as the west edge "flattens out"

now i don't know wether that feature weakens or not but as long as it makes some progress east, the shear will be there

it's like some people can't imagine the storm weakening as it heads near them

as always lets watch what happens

[Sabanic]

I do know this much, and that is she is coming this way, and after passing APP-COLA will still have more nice warm water to maintain the strengthening she has made this evening if she stays on a west course. That's enough for me.