ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[KWT]

What a mess 94L is, several regions of convection seem to be firing and anyone of those could develop or in another case not develop and stunt the other region, man its tricky knowing what blob is actually 94L!

[jlauderdal]

What a mess 94L is, several regions of convection seem to be firing and anyone of those could develop or in another case not develop and stunt the other region, man its tricky knowing what blob is actually 94L!

the whole blob is 94 and thats why its an invest and not a td or more

blob=invest
defined center=classified system
fay=pain in the neck

[KWT]

Yeah but I can't believe the whole thing is the same system, there probably will be one region that will develop and where the focus will be.

[cycloneye]

22/1145 UTC 13.6N 54.8W T1.0/1.0 94L -- Atlantic Ocean

[DESTRUCTION5]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-avn.html

None of this mess looks promising to me.?

[KWT]

That placement puts it pretty much in the northern blob which is starting to decay pretty fast, decaying convection does make it pretty obvious that something is there at the mid levels however.

[Gustywind]

000
AWCA82 TJSJ 220928
RWSVI

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
528 AM AST FRI AUG 22 2008

A TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...BRINGING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. WEATHER DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE ENTIRE AREA
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WEATHER ON SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ACTIVE ACROSS THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN WATERS...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY TO MOVE NORTHWEST AND THE
LOCAL ISLANDS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
Bear watching....episodes!
A LARGE AND ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE WITH AN ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE
AREA WAS LOCATED HALFWAY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC BETWEEN AFRICA AND
THE LESSER ANTILLES THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD..AND IT COULD BRING ACTIVE WEATHER TO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

[gatorcane]

TAFB approximation of where it will be in 3 days. It will be close or just north of Fay's track heading into the SE Bahamas.

[KWT]

Very interesting indeed, given any circulation is at 14N now I suppose thats not out of the question at all, lets see if this system stays north of the islands this time!

[Gustywind]

000
AGXX40 KNHC 220529
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
128 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2008

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...
CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

000
AGXX40 KNHC 220529
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
128 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2008

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...
CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

LOOKING AHEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ATTENTION
TURNS NEXT TO A 1008 MB LOW PRES AREA WITH A FAIRLY WEAK
SIGNATURE NEAR 12N50W. THERE CONTINUES TO BE CONSIDERABLE
DISAGREEMENT AMONG GLOBAL MODELS AS TO WHETHER THIS FEATURE WILL
DEVELOP AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS
TOWARD THE ISLANDS. FORECAST REFLECTS A CONSENSUS APPROACH WITH
THE LOW MOVING THROUGH THE LEEWARDS AND PUERTO RICO BY
MON...WITH ASSOCIATED MODERATE TO FRESH MAINLY EAST OF THE
SOUTHERN BAHAMAS.

[jlauderdal]

Yeah but I can't believe the whole thing is the same system, there probably will be one region that will develop and where the focus will be.

you are correct, if it develops then it will consolidate and BAMM we have a center, that is usually the way it works, then again it could go bye bye..it bears watching as it is close in

[Gustywind]

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... Tagant.jpg
Racing near the East Carib

[Clipper96]

http://www.nlmoc.navy.mil/cgi-bin/movie ... ibbean+vis

Unless 94 redevelops around 12N and heads straight west, I think it'll be ripped to pieces as a developing 95 advances north of it.

[expat2carib]

Looking at the northern blub.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-vis.html

Can the 3 blubs integrate?

[Clipper96]

000MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
128 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2008
...snip...
LOOKING AHEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ATTENTION
TURNS NEXT TO A 1008 MB LOW PRES AREA WITH A FAIRLY WEAK
SIGNATURE NEAR 12N50W. THERE CONTINUES TO BE CONSIDERABLE
DISAGREEMENT AMONG GLOBAL MODELS AS TO WHETHER THIS FEATURE WILL
DEVELOP AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS
TOWARD THE ISLANDS. FORECAST REFLECTS A CONSENSUS APPROACH WITH
THE LOW MOVING THROUGH THE LEEWARDS AND PUERTO RICO BY
MON...WITH ASSOCIATED MODERATE TO FRESH MAINLY EAST OF THE
SOUTHERN BAHAMAS.

Looking at the Caribbean link posted just above, those strong trades appear to preclude anything moving northwest at the present time. The models, this year, are demonstrating a proclivity to imagining that northwest-moving MLCs in sheared west-bound systems are the real McCoys.

[Sanibel]

This has returned from another deep d-min. It has a weak surface swirl now jacking NW like Fay near the same spot. What this is telling you is conditions are still weak like with Fay and will probably support only a tropical storm. But add the prime season differential and the fact it might stay over water and we could see a minimal hurricane. If it tracks over Hispaniola expect another Fay. Fay, 95L, and the High above it should create a different track and possibly environment for 94L if it gets going.

[Blown Away]

Is the low near 14N/55W? I see some weak rotation up there.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

[Ed Mahmoud]

I think the development and strength of this storm is highly dependent on the path that it takes (as usually the case with storms)... But if it heads across the D.R as a tropical storm it could do some damage to the system, whereas it seems if it misses it, it could end up like some of the more aggressive models are showing.

Interesting to note the size of the storm on the models..Even the HWRF has a large circulation present after going over the D.R. The storm then seems to start to gather itself again.. I do have a feeling this may well be a big strong storm. Conditions are getting better and the models like it (except the GFS) .

Latest EURO run shows the storm heading out to sea

I wouldn't be sure of that based on Euro 500 mb pattern, could head in general direction of Northeast. That ridge might prevent an Eastward escape.

This may develop eventually, but usually, the GFDL losing it within a day or so is a pretty good indication conditions aren't super-favorable. In past years, the GFS hasn't always been the best model, but for whatever reason, the GFS seems, at least per my impression, to be leading the pack of globals as far as predicting development.

[DESTRUCTION5]

I think the development and strength of this storm is highly dependent on the path that it takes (as usually the case with storms)... But if it heads across the D.R as a tropical storm it could do some damage to the system, whereas it seems if it misses it, it could end up like some of the more aggressive models are showing.

Interesting to note the size of the storm on the models..Even the HWRF has a large circulation present after going over the D.R. The storm then seems to start to gather itself again.. I do have a feeling this may well be a big strong storm. Conditions are getting better and the models like it (except the GFS) .

Latest EURO run shows the storm heading out to sea

I wouldn't be sure of that based on Euro 500 mb pattern, could head in general direction of Northeast. That ridge might prevent an Eastward escape.

This may develop eventually, but usually, the GFDL losing it within a day or so is a pretty good indication conditions aren't super-favorable. In past years, the GFS hasn't always been the best model, but for whatever reason, the GFS seems, at least per my impression, to be leading the pack of globals as far as predicting development.

I agree..Seem like if GFS says No go this year its been panning out that way..

[Vortex]

12Z NAM rolling in..

Stronger this run and looks like fairly favorable conditions for steady intensification over the eastern caribean. The threat appears to be increasing for Puerto rico/DR

At 60 hours

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_060l.gif


At 66 hours

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_060l.gif