ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[jaxfladude]

This is a Bear Watch. The International Bear Forecasting Service has issued a Bear watch for the North Tropical Atlantic Basin.

This bear watch is for Sabanic:



But just so nobody gets the wrong idea, Go Gators!

Yep, Fay is already in tailgating mode and the first game for the Gators is still 9 days away....
But future Gustav may yet crash the game literally....

[Innotech]

someone explain the bear please?

[cycloneye]

Ok,this is not a football thread,there is a sports forum for that.

[RL3AO]

someone explain the bear please?

When ever something looks like it could develop, people say it "bears watching" so they post a picture of a bear, or in the case above, a picture of Bear Bryant.

[ROCK]

The term came from NWS local AFD's if I recall correctly.

[AtlanticWind]

I wonder why they took the floater off 94 L when they just upped the chance foe development?

[ConvergenceZone]

Thanx Cyclone for pointing out 95L...I didn't think it had been officially declared....Hmmm, perhaps Sanibel is right then, as it does look better in appearance.....For what I understand, both won't be able to form due to how close they are to one another, correct? So it's either one or the other?

[RL3AO]

Convection starting to increase again as it always has at night.

[cycloneye]

Convection starting to increase again as it always has at night.

Now lets see if this time,it persists much longer after DMAX as enviromental conditions are getting better.

[Clipper96]

Is this dead now? I can see any spin anymore, and the nhc.noaa.gov Invest floater is gone.

[RL3AO]

Is this dead now? I can see any spin anymore, and the nhc.noaa.gov Invest floater is gone.

NHC has no control over the floaters and no its not dead.

[RL3AO]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM FAY...LOCATED INLAND 30 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF OCALA FLORIDA.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES EAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/BEVEN

[Meso]

I think the development and strength of this storm is highly dependent on the path that it takes (as usually the case with storms)... But if it heads across the D.R as a tropical storm it could do some damage to the system, whereas it seems if it misses it, it could end up like some of the more aggressive models are showing.

Interesting to note the size of the storm on the models..Even the HWRF has a large circulation present after going over the D.R. The storm then seems to start to gather itself again.. I do have a feeling this may well be a big strong storm. Conditions are getting better and the models like it (except the GFS) .

Latest EURO run shows the storm heading out to sea

[RevDodd]

This is a Bear Watch. The International Bear Forecasting Service has issued a Bear watch for the North Tropical Atlantic Basin.

This bear watch is for Sabanic:




Yep, Fay is already in tailgating mode and the first game for the Gators is still 9 days away....
But future Gustav may yet crash the game literally....

Is this is the case, I reckon folks in Atlanta better be ready come Aug. 30!

Go Tigers!

[KWT]

I just wonder whether the large ITZ burst just to the SE of this system is going to cause it any issue sin terms of development

Also if the convection isn't being badly sheared then the system has gained som latitude recently, reaching the Caribbean still looking pretty likely however.

[bvigal]

726
WHXX04 KWBC 221124
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 94L

INITIAL TIME 6Z AUG 22

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 11.9 51.5 270./13.0

STORM DISSIPATED AT 0 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.

[cycloneye]

554
ABNT20 KNHC 221152
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM FAY...LOCATED INLAND JUST WEST OF GAINESVILLE FLORIDA.

A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS CENTERED
ABOUT 400 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT
MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 MPH.

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LESSER
ANTILLES IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION THIS MORNING. SOME
SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS THE WAVE MOVES TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT
15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[bvigal]

OK, 94L floater is back online.

[KWT]

Very interesting to see the GFDL isn't doing anything but other models are doing stuff, seems like the GFS suite ofd models really don't want to do anything with this wave, I wonder why?

[cycloneye]