ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[paintplaye]

I have to agree about the WSW movement.

And correct me if i'm wrong..don't believe any of the models called for a w or wsw movement!! If this does get into the gulf at this slow speed...would this not streghten to possible hurricane status?? No bashing..just a question!

I didn't understand the question. Can you please explain.

[HURAKAN]

Landfall by Ormond-by-the-Sea, FL

[cpdaman]

people on the gulf are seeing WSW and others are seeing W or WNW as usual.

note i would not call this -removed- on the part of GOM resident's more like fear based perception.

5pm disco says W at 5mph, but that doesn't end the debate because west is anywhere between 259-81 degrees (either slightly S of due west or up to slightly N of due west)

we need WXMAN 57 and his two hour fixes

DR. lyons said conditions will not be that favorable in the gulf, but they look like they are plenty favorable now.

[paintplaye]

people on the gulf are seeing WSW and others are seeing W or WNW as usual.

note i would not call this -removed- on the part of GOM resident's more like fear based perception.

5pm disco says W at 5mph, but that doesn't end the debate because west is anywhere between 259-81 degrees (either slightly S of due west or up to slightly N of due west)

we need WXMAN 57 and his two hour fixes

Well I think a lot of people including myself are being fooled by the "center" getting bigger and smaller. I think it is organizing and once it stops changing sizes, then we can actually say where and how it is moving.

[KWT]

Its certainly close to there and if thats the case then the center probably hasn't gained any latitude recently anyway...

[ronjon]

5 PM NHC Disc.

SINCE FAY IS FORECAST TO BE VERY CLOSE TO THE FLORIDA GULF
COAST...ANY DEVIATION TO THE SOUTH COULD BRING THE CENTER BACK OVER THE WATER AND FAY COULD PERHAPS RETAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. THIS UNCERTAINTY IN BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS HAS PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR A PORTION OF THE FLORIDA
GULF COAST.

[tolakram]

AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 29.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.4 WEST...JUST WEST OF
FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA. THE CENTER OF FAY CROSSED THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA NEAR FLAGLER BEACH AROUND 230 PM EDT...1830 UTC.

It's going to stair step it's way north I'll bet, keeping everyone in suspense all night ... or for the next few nights.

[dizzyfish]

Well, I have been watching Fay on radar all day. If she isn't moving south she sure is growing/expanding south/southwest. Just had a fairly strong gust a few minutes ago along with a short rain blast.

[KWT]

Yep that makes sense Ronjon given how close it will come to getting into the gulf waters again.

Lets see if Fay continues to mess us around!

[tailgater]

She's really moving now
[img]http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/203214.shtml?3day#contents[/img]

[cpdaman]

ronjon ronjon so we got a watch out

i wonder what the forecast for Upper level divergence is over the storm for the next 24 hours, as 30 plus divergence allowed this thing to strengthen over land. now will the best upper level divergence follow the storm westward or will it peter out

[KWT]

Yep well really moving compared to what we have been used to with Fay anyway!

If anything seems like recon has been suggesting a slight south of west motion based on where the lowest pressure was over the coast. Still for now the offical motion is west and if this motion continues it gets into the gulf with maybe enough space to slightly strengthen again, this will be a very interesting little spell for Fay.

[rockyman]

people on the gulf are seeing WSW and others are seeing W or WNW as usual.

note i would not call this -removed- on the part of GOM resident's more like fear based perception.

5pm disco says W at 5mph, but that doesn't end the debate because west is anywhere between 259-81 degrees (either slightly S of due west or up to slightly N of due west)

we need WXMAN 57 and his two hour fixes

DR. lyons said conditions will not be that favorable in the gulf, but they look like they are plenty favorable now.

The NHC "Forecast/Advisory" (fka "Marine Advisory") shows this:

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 4 KT
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 2032.shtml?

[KWT]

The other thing to note is the 270 motion, thats due west and thats whats needed for it to make it into the gulf.

[Steve]

Key in the disco was the potential for flooding over a very large area - or in their own words, "REGARDLESS OF ITS EXACT TRACK...FAY WILL BE MOVING RATHER SLOWLY
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...POSING A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLOOD HAZARD TO A VERY LARGE AREA."

Dust of dem shramp boots and umbrellas y'all.

Steve

[Ixolib]

Mark and http://www.hurricanetrack.com/ make the news!!!

Story Link: http://www.baynews9.com/content/36/2008/8/21/375475.html

Video Link: http://www.baynews9.com/VideoPlayer/?Hurricane_Trackers_821

[TSmith274]

I really thought Fay was moving WNW. Guess I was wrong. But like Steve said... this is going to be a pretty significant rain event. Parts of Florida have had over 20 inches. I'm going to clear the storm drains... not that it will help. My street flooded during a summer storm yesterday.

[Stormcenter]

people on the gulf are seeing WSW and others are seeing W or WNW as usual.

note i would not call this -removed- on the part of GOM resident's more like fear based perception.

5pm disco says W at 5mph, but that doesn't end the debate because west is anywhere between 259-81 degrees (either slightly S of due west or up to slightly N of due west)

we need WXMAN 57 and his two hour fixes

DR. lyons said conditions will not be that favorable in the gulf, but they look like they are plenty favorable now.

The NHC "Forecast/Advisory" (fka "Marine Advisory") shows this:

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 4 KT
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 2032.shtml?

I say it's 50/50 -removed- and fear.

[wxman57]

we need WXMAN 57 and his two hour fixes

It's harder to make a 2 hr estimate for a center 80 miles across with no identifiable features. However, the vortex message just out, radar imagery, and surface obs put the center right on the coast near 29.35N/81.1W. This is a bit east of the NHC's predicted 4pm CDT position. To me, it looks like it's not moving much now. Fay seems to have stalled again in the past hour. Pressure continues to fall at Daytona Beach, by the way.

You can't judge movement by looking at that ring of convection. The convection is expanding outward away from the center, giving the appearance of SW or WSW motion. The center isn't moving that direction.

[Stormcenter]

The other thing to note is the 270 motion, thats due west and thats whats needed for it to make it into the gulf.

Fay won't be in the GOM for long if she does make it there.