ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[Sanibel]

This should draw attention tomorrow and be something Saturday.

The ULL is flattening it and probably spurring convection. If it gets past it it should develop a better surface feature. I guess this is our next big player that will create a buzzing board.

Not sure the wave behind it is finished either.

[Gustywind]

666
NOUS42 KNHC 211430
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT THU 21 AUGUST 2008
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 22/1100Z TO 23/1100Z AUGUST 2008
TCPOD NUMBER.....08-082

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM FAY -- TEAL 70
A. 23/0000Z
B. AFXXX 2706A FAY
C. 22/2200Z
D. 29.7N 84.1W
E. 22/2300Z TO 23/0500Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL
INVEST NEAR 15.5N 59.0W AT 23/1800Z.

11. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
JWP

Interresting info Hurakan i appreciate, and moreover suspicions are prevaling a bit, because ...i was reading the latest weather forecast of our Pro Met of Meteo-France of Martinica this morning , and for the next 2/3 days they're anticipating the fact that a well formed disturbed area should be close to TD status near Martinica Satuday night or Sunday...bear watching ...

[Sanibel]

This kind of red IR depth usually bespeaks certain storm:

[HURAKAN]

Elsewhere in the tropics
A tropical wave (94L) 900 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Island remains disorganized. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed no closed circulation, but did show a pronounced wind shift associated with the storm, and top winds of 30 mph. Visible satellite imagery shows a modest clump of disorganized heavy thunderstorms. Wind shear is a high 20 knots over this disturbance, and there is dry air surrounding it on all sides. Given these rather unfavorable conditions, NHC is giving this system a low (<20% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning. Once 94L moves into the eastern Caribbean on Sunday, the atmosphere will moisten, wind shear will fall, and development will be more likely. The ECMWF model does develop 94L into a tropical storm in the eastern Caribbean, but none of the other models develop the storm.

Link: http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... amp=200808

[Sanibel]

Like Dolly and Fay it will probably struggle and do deep loss of convection cycles before forming (if it does). The red IR should carry it, though, considering where it is and the time of year. But the one behind it could still surprise us. Too early to say.

[Meso]

Wonder why he said none of the other models when the CMC (though an unreliable model, still a model) shows the storm becoming a large major hurricane just to the north of the EURO.

[Gustywind]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html
Right now seems that INVEST 94 L is moving through a weak are of shear allowing for a slight better appearence without to much shear, but after ...things look for me a bit complicated, with increasing shear ahead in vicinity...with my untrained eyes. Let's see how the things will evolve...
Whereas i'm a little confused with the SHIPS forecats in terms of shear, seems low ( see the thread " models runs 94L") 10 kts ( as Cycloneye said :" Where is the shear"?) and the others predictions, just a thought, so as usual watch it...

[HURAKAN]

This year I have been comparing these disturbances with volcanoes. People may think a volcano is dead because it's not spewing magma but in reality they are just dormant, waiting to come alive at the right time. These tropical disturbances may look dead at different points in their track across the Atlantic, but they are just waiting for conditions to become more favorable to erupt. Therefore, for the time being they are dormant!

By the way, there is no relation between volcanic activity and hurricane activity.

[Gustywind]

This year I have been comparing these disturbances with volcanoes. People may think a volcano is dead because it's not spewing magma but in reality they are just dormant, waiting to come alive at the right time. These tropical disturbances may look dead at different points in their track across the Atlantic, but they are just waiting for conditions to become more favorable to erupt. Therefore, for the time being they are dormant!

By the way, there is no relation between volcanic activity and hurricane activity.

Be carefull of the appearent calm, we should not let our guard down, next week will bring surprises in stores for sure, matter of time....

[Blown Away]

94L sure is blowing up on the IR and I'm pretty sure the low is under the convection.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

[Sanibel]

Came in to report the same thing. More circular, which is a sign of possible development.

[RL3AO]

You can still see the southerly shear.

[SouthFloridawx]

That is a really good comparison. I totally agree...

This year I have been comparing these disturbances with volcanoes. People may think a volcano is dead because it's not spewing magma but in reality they are just dormant, waiting to come alive at the right time. These tropical disturbances may look dead at different points in their track across the Atlantic, but they are just waiting for conditions to become more favorable to erupt. Therefore, for the time being they are dormant!

By the way, there is no relation between volcanic activity and hurricane activity.

[KWT]

That ULL still seems to be moving a touch north of west though there is pretty obvious shear.

I'm having a ahrd time seeing any LLC with this, probably any circulation is at the mid levels and I'd guess more on the eastern side of the deep convection...

Still this is heading towards the east Caribbean, looks like it will have a pretty decent conditions to develop IMO.

Also not surprising we have recon rpogged for this system, think it will be needed by 60W...

[drezee]

There was a little storm named Iris in 1995 that looked a lot like this and in the same location. Could be interesting...

[KWT]

The big difference is there is no chance its going to recurve given a pretty huge 1032mb high is set to develop to its north in around 48hrs time.

By the way Iris was a powerful ET storm here in the UK.

[Cryomaniac]

By the way, there is no relation between volcanic activity and hurricane activity.

Technically, if there were a lot of volcanic activity, it would decrease the amount of tropical systems worldwide, eg the year after Krakatoa: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1884_Atlantic_hurricane_season

[HURAKAN]

By the way, there is no relation between volcanic activity and hurricane activity.

Technically, if there were a lot of volcanic activity, it would decrease the amount of tropical systems worldwide, eg the year after Krakatoa: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1884_Atlantic_hurricane_season

I was thinking about that when I was writing, but I was talking on a general sense. I know that in a large volcanic eruption you would expect a decrease in temperatures and likely, a decrease in tropical cyclone activity.

[gtsmith]

A couple of days ago someone said something about 94Ls possible future name if it develops (and develops before any other storm), being Gustav...just wanted to mention in the movie Primeval, the monster-sized croc was named Gustave by the local townsfolk...and he was not a nice little guy...he was quite ferocious...

[Gustywind]

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... Tagant.jpg
Convection is a bit on the increase...